NWS El Paso, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Apr 10, 4:45 AM MST, 7 hours 15 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Apr 10, 4:45 AM MST, 7 hours 15 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
545 AM MDT Wed Apr 10 2019
.SYNOPSIS...
A strong storm system and Pacific Cold Front will bring very windy
conditions and blowing dust to the area today. Winds have been
affecting the east slopes of the Franklin and Organ Mountains
through the night, and will quickly increase across the wider area
after sunrise. Peak winds this afternoon will range from 50 to 55
mph in far southwestern New Mexico, with 60 to 70 mph gusts east
common east of the Continental Divide. A few stronger gusts over
70 mph will be possible east of area mountain ranges and up in the
Sacramento Mountains. Difficult to dangerous driving conditions
will result, along with possible damage to trees, power lines,
and structures. Cooler temperatures will arrive with this system,
and linger through Saturday. A second storm system will bring
increasing clouds to the area late Friday and Saturday, with a few
showers possible in the Gila Region and Sacramento Mountains.
Warmer temperatures will return Sunday and early next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Our closed upper low is presently centered over Utah this morning,
with a strong vortmax moving across central Arizona. Winds aloft
have been steadily increasing, with South Franklin Peak gusting as
high as 57 mph in the past hour. So far, wind gusts in El Paso
have been confined close to the east slopes of the Franklins.
Three sites near the US-54 corridor have gusted over 50 mph since
midnight, while 28 knots is all we have mustered at the airport
(KELP). In the Sacramento Mountains, winds have been quieter at
observing sites, with gusts in the 35 to 40 mph range even at the
more exposed sites like Sunspot and Apache Point.
Everything still looks to be on track for a higher-end wind event
over much of the area today, with deep mixing tapping into 50 to
60 knot winds in the 700-650 mb layer. The wind maximum at 700 mb
looks to focus itself from the Sacramento Mountains WSW into
El Paso and southern Dona Ana Counties between 21-24Z. Still think
we will see a few peak gusts over 70 mph east of the Organs and
Franklins, and in exposed areas of the Sacramento Mountains.
With widespread blowing dust expected, a Dust Advisory seemed wise
for the lowlands today. Went with 9 AM to 9 PM to match up with
the Wind products, though the worst conditions will be this
afternoon. There's always a bit of guess work with dust. But a
wind direction of 260-270 isn't ideal for bringing dust from the
most active source regions into ELP. Nevertheless, localized
areas of Dust Storm Warning criteria may be met during the mid and
late afternoon, especially in the vicinity of Lordsburg Playa, and
perhaps parts of Luna County. Short-term, polygon-based Dust
Storm warnings will be issued if needed.
Boosted temperatures up a bit east of the Rio Grande, considering
a recent (or longer term?) trend for guidance to underestimate
high temps in a strong west wind scenario, even with a frontal
passage expected around 11 AM at ELP. Hourly temperatures were
edited to reflect an atypical diurnal trend with the FROPA.
Cooler temperatures will persist in the days ahead, with highs in
the upper-60s to around 70 tomorrow and Friday across the
lowlands.
As mentioned yesterday, a nice longwave trough carves out behind
this system across much of the western CONUS. This will allow a
second shortwave trough to drop into southern California by Friday
morning. The system looks to be a bit moisture-starved, but some
scattered showers are still a good bet across the northern
counties, and especially the Gila Region and Sacramento Mountains,
late Friday through Saturday.
Ridging will bring near-normal temperatures back to the area
on Sunday, with 80s returning for Monday and Tuesday. Another
strong trough may bring windy conditions back to the area for
next Wednesday.
&&
.AVIATION...
For El Paso... winds have been stubbornly staying close to the
east slopes of the Franklin Mountains overnight, with several
unofficial obs sites recording gusts over 45 knots in northeast El
Paso, while much lighter winds have persisted at KELP. 12Z RAOB
shows 30-35 knots at 1000 ft AGL, with 50 knots at 5,000 feet.
Will keep a TEMPO for wind gusts through about 14Z, after which
mixing should bring gusts down to the surface more consistently.
Still expect peak gusts around 55 knots during the mid-afternoon,
with significant visibility reductions (1SM to 3SM) in Blowing
Dust. Wind direction (250-270) during peak winds is not ideal for
advecting in dust from the most active source regions, but the
expected strength of the winds should loft plenty of dust of more
local origin.
Denser dust is possible at DMN given the due west winds this
afternoon.
Winds will slowly diminish this evening, with east-slope areas,
including KELP, holding onto gusts over 30 knots until a little
after midnight.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Extremely critical fire weather conditions are expected today over
much of the area, with the worst combination of strong winds and
low humidity expected east of the Continental Divide where gusts
of 55 to 60 mph at the 20-foot level are expected this afternoon,
along with single-digit RH values. Cooler temperatures will move
into the area today as a cold front pushes east of the Rio Grande
by midday.
Temperatures will range from 8 to 12 degrees below normal on
Thursday. Despite the cooler temperatures, RH values will drop to
around 9 to 12 percent across the lowlands despite the cooler
temperatures. Critical thresholds may be reached again as west-
northwest winds increase to around 20-25 mph at the 20-foot level
yet again.
A second storm system will arrive late Friday and Saturday,
bringing a chance for precipitation, mainly to the Gila Region and
Sacramento Mountains. But even in those locations, total
precipitation amounts will be light.
Temperatures will warm back up above normal early next week, with
another wind event possible on Wednesday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso 80 52 70 46 / 0 0 0 0
Sierra Blanca 83 45 68 39 / 0 0 0 0
Las Cruces 72 42 68 40 / 0 0 0 0
Alamogordo 75 43 66 40 / 0 0 0 0
Cloudcroft 51 26 45 27 / 0 0 0 0
Truth or Consequences 67 41 66 42 / 0 0 0 0
Silver City 56 34 58 38 / 0 0 0 0
Deming 69 37 67 36 / 0 0 0 0
Lordsburg 65 35 67 38 / 0 0 0 0
West El Paso Metro 77 50 69 47 / 0 0 0 0
Dell City 83 45 72 39 / 0 0 0 0
Fort Hancock 88 49 73 43 / 0 0 0 0
Loma Linda 75 43 65 42 / 0 0 0 0
Fabens 83 49 71 45 / 0 0 0 0
Santa Teresa 76 46 68 43 / 0 0 0 0
White Sands HQ 74 48 68 47 / 0 0 0 0
Jornada Range 73 40 67 40 / 0 0 0 0
Hatch 71 39 68 39 / 0 0 0 0
Columbus 72 42 69 41 / 0 0 0 0
Orogrande 76 43 68 40 / 0 0 0 0
Mayhill 62 34 56 31 / 0 0 0 0
Mescalero 60 32 54 31 / 0 0 0 0
Timberon 60 29 53 28 / 0 0 0 0
Winston 58 29 58 26 / 0 0 0 0
Hillsboro 63 36 64 38 / 0 0 0 0
Spaceport 71 38 66 38 / 0 0 0 0
Lake Roberts 55 27 57 27 / 0 0 0 0
Hurley 59 33 61 35 / 0 0 0 0
Cliff 62 30 63 30 / 0 0 0 0
Mule Creek 58 32 60 31 / 0 0 0 0
Faywood 61 35 61 38 / 0 0 0 0
Animas 67 39 68 39 / 0 0 0 0
Hachita 68 36 67 36 / 0 0 0 0
Antelope Wells 69 39 69 39 / 0 0 0 0
Cloverdale 63 36 64 41 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...High Wind Warning until midnight MDT tonight for NMZ413>416.
Blowing Dust Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 9 PM MDT this
evening for NMZ403>413-417.
Red Flag Warning from 10 AM this morning to 10 PM MDT this
evening for NMZ110>113.
High Wind Warning from 9 AM this morning to 9 PM MDT this
evening for NMZ402-403-407>412-417.
Wind Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 9 PM MDT this evening
for NMZ401-404>406.
TX...High Wind Warning until midnight MDT tonight for TXZ419.
Blowing Dust Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 9 PM MDT this
evening for TXZ418>424.
Red Flag Warning from 10 AM this morning to 10 PM MDT this
evening for TXZ055-056.
High Wind Warning from 9 AM this morning to 9 PM MDT this
evening for TXZ418-420>424.
&&
25-Hardiman