High Wind in Texas, April 10, 2019

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1213 PM CDT Wed Apr 10 2019

.AVIATION...
Wind speeds will increase out of the west at KLBB/KPVW this
afternoon reaching sustained speeds of 35 to 45 knots. Wind gusts
will exceed 50 knots at times between 18Z and 00Z. As a result,
blowing dust at KLBB/KPVW may drop visibilities to MVFR at times.
An Airport Weather Warning continues through 03Z on the 11th for
KLBB. KCDS will be far enough east that sustained speeds will be
in the 25 to 35 knot range gusts to 45 knots at times and
visibilities will drop but remain VFR.

A cold front will push across the TAF sites tomorrow morning
swinging the wind to the northwest to north northwest at 15 to 25
knots. VFR conditions are expected behind the front right now.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 623 AM CDT Wed Apr 10 2019/

AVIATION...
Wind speeds will increase out of the west at KLBB/KPVW eventually
reaching sustained speeds of 35 to 45 knots. Wind gusts will
exceed 50 knots at times between 18Z and 00Z when the peak speeds
will occur. This will likely result in blowing dust for both sites
resulting in MVFR visibilities at times. An Airport Weather
Warning will be in effect for KLBB from 17Z - 03Z on the 11th.
KCDS will be far enough east that sustained speeds will be in the
25 to 35 knot range gusts to 45 knots at times and visibilities
will drop but remain VFR.

A cold front will push across the TAF sites tomorrow morning
swinging the wind to the northwest to north northwest at 15 to 25
knots. VFR conditions are expected behind the front right now.

Jordan

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 408 AM CDT Wed Apr 10 2019/

DISCUSSION...
High wind is still on course for this afternoon ahead of an
approaching upper low currently situated along the west coast. The
lee trough currently across the foothills of CO will deepen as the
upper low approaches and itself deepen. Strong surface pressure
gradient along with deep layer mixing and a 50-60kt H700 jet
continue to support a high wind event for most of the FA. The High
Wind Watch has been upgraded to a warning with the exception of
Kent and Stonewall counties. Guidance in general are keeping
winds below the warning threshold which is agreeable. The Fire
Weather Watch has also been upgraded to a Red Flag Warning across
the entire CWA as min RH values will drop into the low teens to
single digits while winds are in the advisory/warning level. The
upper and surface low will push off to the east overnight and a
cold front will push through the region tomorrow morning. Winds
will initially be on the breezy behind the front but should taper
off through the afternoon to 10-20 mph. Highs will also be
drastically cooler tomorrow, mid 50s to mid 60s. A light freeze is
possible across our northwestern counties with a light frost
possible across much of the Caprock tomorrow night as lows dip
into the 30s.

Friday for the most part will be identical to Thursday until the
late evening when cloud cover increases as another upper level
system pushes towards the FA. Models are starting to match up with
Saturday being wet and chilly. Highs are expected to be well below
average in the low to upper 40s. They have also come in better
agreement with lows for Saturday night/Sunday morning. Previously
the GFS had lows mostly in the mid/upper 30s while the ECMWF favored
lows near or below freezing for much of the FA. They have, for the
most part, settled on a light freeze across our northwestern zones
and mid to upper 30s across the rest of the FA. This seems valid
given as the surface airmass leading up to and through Saturday will
be cool yet highly modified. With mostly zonal upper level flow
across the northern CONUS and lack of a dense arctic airmass to our
north the previously forecasted lows from the ECMWF were not as
convincing. One small caveat to Saturday will be the possibility
for a snow/rain mix across the southern Texas Panhandle as the
core of the low moves overhead. For now the forecast will remain
liquid.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 10 PM CDT this evening for TXZ021>044.

Wind Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for TXZ043-044.

High Wind Warning until 10 PM CDT this evening for TXZ021>042.

&&

99/99/28

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1143 AM CDT Wed Apr 10 2019

TXZ021>044-110445-
Parmer-Castro-Swisher-Briscoe-Hall-Childress-Bailey-Lamb-Hale-
Floyd-Motley-Cottle-Cochran-Hockley-Lubbock-Crosby-Dickens-King-
Yoakum-Terry-Lynn-Garza-Kent-Stonewall-
1143 AM CDT Wed Apr 10 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the South Plains, Rolling
Plains and the far Southern Texas Panhandle.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

A High Wind Warning is in effect through 10 PM for all of the
South Plains, the extreme southern Panhandle, and most of the
Rolling Plains. The exception is for Kent and Stonewall counties
where a Wind Advisory is in effect. West winds of 35 to 50 mph
with gusts near 70 mph are expected through the mid-evening hours
today. In addition a Red Flag Warning is also in effect until 10
PM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

A light frost or freeze will be possible for areas on the Caprock
Thursday night and again Sunday morning.