Hail and Damaging Wind in South Dakota, June 7, 2019

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
507 PM MDT Fri Jun 7 2019

.DISCUSSION...(This Evening Through Friday)
Issued at 138 PM MDT Fri Jun 7 2019

Upper level analysis has ridging to the east and deep trof to the
west with southwest flow in between across the Northern Plains.
Skies are partly cloudy at the moment, with thunderstorms
developing across southeast Wyoming. At the surface, low pressure
is located across southern Manitoba and also across central
Wyoming, with a cold front draped between the two across western
South Dakota. Temperatures at 2pm are in the upper 70s to upper
80s, with winds out of the south ahead of the front, and out of
the northwest behind.

Cold front / trof will hang up across the area this afternoon as
showers and thunderstorms continue to develop across the area.
Initiation has begun in southeast Wyoming, and with southwest
upper flow, will steer convection into western SD after 3pm.
Expect additional convection to develop across northeast Wyoming
and the Black Hills by late afternoon with severe storms likely.
Modest CAPE and shear along with better upper dynamics later this
afternoon / early evening will likely produce some larger hail in
some storms, with storms congealing into a large cluster later
tonight across northwest SD. As the storms merge, damaging wind
gusts will accompany the large hail threat. Majority of stronger
storms will eventually shift into North Dakota later tonight with
isolated showers and storms lingering across parts of the area
after midnight. Cold front will eventually make its way through
the forecast area overnight, ushering in some cooler temperatures.
Lows will fall into the 40s and 50s for most locations.

Western upper trof will shift into the Northern Rockies by
Saturday morning, and cross the Northern Plains on Sunday.
Temperatures across the area this weekend will be much cooler,
with highs ranging from the upper 50s over portions of northeast
WY and the Black Hills to the low to mid 70s over south central
SD. Shortwave energy rotating around the trof will bring
additional chances for showers and a few storms, especially
Saturday into Saturday night. Overnight lows Saturday night and
Sunday night will be on the chilly side, 40s on the plains and
some 30s over the Black Hills.

Weakening upper trof will move east of the area, with northwest
flow in place for the first half of next week. This will keep
temps near to slightly below average through the period. The
better chances for showers and storms looks to be in the Monday
night and Tuesday time frame as a shortwave trof moves across the
region. A developing ridge over the West Coast early next week
could move east into the Rockies and High Plains late in the
week, which would bring warming temps, but also better chances for
showers and storms.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS Through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued At 504 PM MDT Fri Jun 7 2019

Numerous TSRA with IFR conditions will move northeast this
evening across the area. Hail and gusty winds will occur with the
strongest storms. A sharp cold front will move from northwest to
southeast across the area overnight with gusty northwest winds
behind it as well as widespread MVFR/IFR CIGS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&

DISCUSSION...15
AVIATION...Helgeson

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
802 AM MDT Fri Jun 7 2019

SDZ001-002-012>014-024-025-072-073-WYZ054-056-057-071-081300-
Harding-Perkins-Butte-Northern Meade Co Plains-Ziebach-
Northern Black Hills-Northern Foot Hills-
Sturgis/Piedmont Foot Hills-Southern Meade Co Plains-
Northern Campbell-Western Crook-Wyoming Black Hills-
Northeastern Crook-
802 AM MDT Fri Jun 7 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northwestern
South Dakota...the Black Hills of South Dakota...northeast
Wyoming...and the Black Hills of Wyoming.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening.
Some of the thunderstorms will be severe. The main threat will be
hail up to the size of golf balls and wind gusts up to 70 mph.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

There is a near daily chance of thunderstorms through early next
week. Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected at this
time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed today.

&&

Stay tuned to NOAA weather radio for further updates...or check
our web site at weather.gov/rapidcity

SDZ026>032-041>044-074-WYZ055-058-081300-
Rapid City-Southern Foot Hills-Central Black Hills-
Southern Black Hills-Custer Co Plains-Pennington Co Plains-Haakon-
Fall River-Oglala Lakota-Jackson-Bennett-Hermosa Foot Hills-
Southern Campbell-Weston-
802 AM MDT Fri Jun 7 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southwestern
South Dakota...the Black Hills of South Dakota...and northeast
Wyoming.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Scattered thunderstorms are possible this late this afternoon into
tonight. A few storms may be severe with large hail and damaging
winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

There is a near daily chance of thunderstorms through early next
week. Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected at this
time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed today.

&&

Stay tuned to NOAA weather radio for further updates...or check
our web site at weather.gov/rapidcity

SDZ046-047-049-081300-
Mellette-Todd-Tripp-
902 AM CDT Fri Jun 7 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of south central
South Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Scattered thunderstorms are possible tonight. Organized severe
thunderstorms are not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

There is a daily chance of thunderstorms through early next week.
A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Saturday.

Spotter activation will not be needed today.

&&

Stay tuned to NOAA weather radio for further updates...or check
our web site at weather.gov/rapidcity

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
617 PM MDT FRI JUN 07 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0610 PM     HAIL             5 W WHITEWOOD           44.47N 103.73W
06/07/2019  E1.00 INCH       LAWRENCE           SD   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

SJR