Hail and Damaging Wind in Colorado, June 7, 2019

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
304 PM MDT Fri Jun 7 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 238 PM MDT Fri Jun 7 2019

The first wave of thunderstorms is through Denver and looks like
it will be consolidating into a line as it moves toward the
eastern border through late afternoon. There's a less organized
second batch of storms from Fairplay and Salida west into the Elk
mountains that should move east off the mountains around 00z. This
is all about as expected. South winds on the plains are a bit more
than expected. This will increase the directional shear, but given
the limited total shear and probably linear storm type, probably
still just a low tornado threat if at all.

There will be some weak convection maintaining some cloud cover
and maybe weaker showers this evening, then drier air will move in
on the southwesterly flow. Skies should clear, but some wind
overnight will keep temperatures warm.

There are two main questions for Saturday: the timing of the front
and the possibility of storms developing on the front. There's
still some uncertainty, but models are favoring an afternoon
frontal passage. There should be some cooling behind the front,
and the low level should mix out in the dry air ahead of the front
over most of our area. However, there will be better moisture
further east so there could be some thunderstorms with the front
near the eastern border. The severe threat should be best east of
Colorado, but there could be a threat of marginal hail and wind in
our eastern tier of counties.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 238 PM MDT Fri Jun 7 2019

Saturday night a cold front will sweep across the northeast plains.
The mid level trough axis at that time will stretch from northeast
WY to northeast UT with weak mid level QG omega over the cwa
through the night. Best combination of moisture and instability
will be in the evening, with lighter showers lingering overnight.
On Sunday and Sunday night, increasing mid level subsidence will
be in place as the trough axis passes to the east of CO. At the
surface, post frontal airmass will be cooler and much more stable
especially across the northeast plains. Thunderstorms that develop
Sunday afternoon and evening will develop primarily over the
elevated terrain to the south and southwest of Denver. High
temperatures on Sunday will be close to 20 degrees cooler than
Saturday. The flow aloft will be northwesterly early next week,
with an embedded system possibly brush northern CO Monday night.
An upper level ridge axis will be over the west coast by the
middle of next week. This will result in a persistent northwesterly
flow aloft over Colorado. This will result in cooler than normal
temperatures through mid week, with isolated to scattered
thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening. By Thursday, the ridge
over the west will break down as the flow aloft becomes more
westerly on Thursday with the passage of another weak upper level
disturbance.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 238 PM MDT Fri Jun 7 2019

VFR through Saturday. A second round of thunderstorms is expected
in the Denver area between 23z and 02z, which could bring variable
winds gusting to 30 knots. A cold front is expected between 20z
and 22z Saturday, with north winds gusting to 30 knots for a few
hours behind the front.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Gimmestad
LONG TERM...Cooper
AVIATION...Gimmestad

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
1105 AM MDT Fri Jun 7 2019

COZ030>051-081715-
Jackson County Below 9000 Feet-
West Jackson and West Grand Counties Above 9000 Feet-
Grand and Summit Counties Below 9000 Feet-
South and East Jackson/Larimer/North and Northeast Grand/
Northwest Boulder Counties Above 9000 Feet-
South and Southeast Grand/West Central and Southwest Boulder/
Gilpin/Clear Creek/Summit/North and West Park Counties Above
9000 Feet-Larimer and Boulder Counties Between 6000 and 9000 Feet-
Jefferson and West Douglas Counties Above 6000 Feet/Gilpin/Clear
Creek/Northeast Park Counties Below 9000 Feet-
Central and Southeast Park County-
Larimer County Below 6000 Feet/Northwest Weld County-
Boulder And Jefferson Counties Below 6000 Feet/West Broomfield
County-
North Douglas County Below 6000 Feet/Denver/West Adams and
Arapahoe Counties/East Broomfield County-
Elbert/Central and East Douglas Counties Above 6000 Feet-
Northeast Weld County-Central and South Weld County-Morgan County-
Central and East Adams and Arapahoe Counties-
North and Northeast Elbert County Below 6000 Feet/North Lincoln
County-
Southeast Elbert County Below 6000 Feet/South Lincoln County-
Logan County-Washington County-Sedgwick County-Phillips County-
1105 AM MDT Fri Jun 7 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for northeast and north central
Colorado.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Scattered thunderstorms will develop in and near the mountains
during the early afternoon, then move across the plains during the
afternoon and evening. A few of the thunderstorms are expected to
become severe. The main threats are hail up to golf ball size and
wind gusts to 60 mph. This will be most likely east of a line from
Fort Morgan to Colorado Springs between 2 pm and 8 pm. There is
also a small threat of tornadoes in areas east and south of Limon
after 5 pm. Some areas may also receive an inch of rain in less
than an hour, again mainly over the eastern plains.

Weaker storms will end over and near the mountains by mid evening,
while they may linger near the eastern border until around
midnight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

A cold front will move across the area Saturday afternoon, which
will bring a slight chance of thunderstorms to the plains. Showers
and a few thunderstorms will become more widespread across the
plains Saturday night as a weather disturbance affects the area.

Sunday through Tuesday will see below normal temperatures with
only a slight chance of afternoon and evening thunderstorms mainly
across the higher terrain.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated today or tonight.

Gimmestad/Cooper

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Denver CO
243 PM MDT Fri Jun 7 2019

COZ043>045-072130-
Central and South Weld County CO-Morgan County CO-
Central and East Adams and Arapahoe Counties CO-
243 PM MDT Fri Jun 7 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL WELD...EASTERN
ARAPAHOE...SOUTHWESTERN MORGAN AND EASTERN ADAMS COUNTIES UNTIL 330
PM MDT...

At 242 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles west of Leader, or 32 miles southwest of Fort Morgan, moving
northeast at 25 mph.

Penny size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Bennett, Wiggins, Hoyt, Shamrock, Leader, Byers, Adena, Twelve-Mile
Corner, Strasburg and Adena School.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Prepare for sudden gusty winds. Secure loose objects and move to a
safe shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 4000 10359 4000 10370 3991 10370 3956 10416
      3975 10451 3978 10451 4019 10428 4033 10401
TIME...MOT...LOC 2042Z 232DEG 25KT 3991 10420

ENTREKIN