A slow moving front provided the focus for training storms capable of very high hourly rainfall rates over southwest Tennessee during the morning hours of June 7th.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS MEG wrote it up.
A slow moving front provided the focus for training storms capable of very high hourly rainfall rates over southwest Tennessee during the morning hours of June 7th.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Memphis, TN wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jun 6, 10:45 PM CST, 3 hours 28 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1145 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2019 .UPDATE... Updated to include 06z aviation discussion. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1139 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2019/ UPDATE...corrected for grammatical error. Latest surface analysis places a double barrel 1005mb surface low over north Mississippi and the ArkLaTex. A large upper level low was analyzed on GOES-16 Water Vapor Imagery over eastern Oklahoma at this hour. The upper low is expected to slowly drift eastward and into the Mid-South overnight. As it does, bands of heavy rainfall will continue to lift and train northward across our area. Training of showers and thunderstorms may cause flash flooding or at least some nuisance flooding through the overnight hours. Latest SPC mesoanalysis shows PWAT values in excess of 2 inches across the entire area, which is 99th percentile or 2 standard deviations above our climatology. With a shortwave rotating through the region overnight and broad southwest flow, very efficient rainfall rates could produce another 1-3 inches of rainfall for areas along and west of the Mississippi River. Went ahead and bumped up QPF totals to reflect this. Will also add the potential of flash flooding to the HWO through the overnight hours, as some locations in eastern Arkansas have already received 1.5-2 inches from today's earlier rainfall. The surface low is expected to lift northeast through tomorrow night with continuing showers and thunderstorms possible. AC3 PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 304 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2019/ DISCUSSION... Area of showers have continued to push north and east across the forecast area this afternoon...with some breaks lasting an hour or two over the far southeast and northwest counties. Visible satellite showing some sun knocking on the southern counties but CAPE values have only reached near 1200 j/kg as of 3pm. Current temperatures are still in the 70s area wide due to precipitation and winds are mainly southeast through south at 5-15 mph. For tonight and tomorrow....the combination of an approaching surface low in southern Mississippi and an upper level low moving east through the Red River Valley will bring rounds of showers and a few thunderstorms to the area for the next 24 hours. Rain at times may be moderate to heavy at times and/or mixed with drizzle. Have reduced thunderstorm chances though noon Friday just based off persistent lack of instability. Afterwards midlevel lapse rates and more frequent breaks in midlevel cloud cover may contribute to better coverage...especially across the south and west as the upper low moves over eastern Arkansas. A few of these storms may produce strong wind gusts. Rainfall amounts of 1-2 inches will be the standard through tomorrow evening. Not much diurnal change in temperatures are anticipated...with highs Friday remaining below the seasonal average. Saturday and Sunday...the aforementioned upper low is progged to slowly fill as it stalls and takes up shop in the Tennessee River Valley. Thus rain chances will continue both days with better coverage east of the Mississippi River. Activity will also be more diurnally driven. Breaks in the cloud cover should yield afternoon CAPE amounts closer to 2000 j/kg...triggering better storm coverage. However organization of convection will be weak and likely more low-topped. Couldn't rule out a landspout/cold air funnel though during this time frame. Temperatures will be slightly warmer with readings topping out into the low and mid 80s...still below average. Lows will fall near 70F. Monday through Wednesday...drier for the most part this period. Models agree on a pattern change to a northwesterly flow aloft. This will drive a cold front through the region Monday swapping out the muggy 70F+ dewpoints to readings in the upper 50s. Quite a change for this time of year. Coupled with highs in the low 80s and the period becomes much more enjoyable. A few showers will accompany the front Monday...with Tuesday looking dry area wide. By Wednesday a passing shortwave in the Midwest may trigger a shower across the north. Almost forgot...the drier air will allow lows to fall into the low 60s for most. JAB && .AVIATION... 06z TAF Cycle A mix of IFR and MVFR CIGs will persist throughout the next 24 hours as an upper low moves over the region. Thunder is ongoing and will likely continue, with SHRA and lowered VSBY, through tomorrow afternoon as elevated instability is present with surface low transiting the region. Winds will vary in direction throughout the period as this feature moves northeast. CIGs likely to improve to all MVFR late in the period with the upper low beginning to move out to the east. ZDM && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. &&
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Memphis TN 311 AM CDT Fri Jun 7 2019 ARZ009-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-MSZ001>017- 020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-081015- Alcorn-Benton MS-Benton TN-Calhoun-Carroll-Chester-Chickasaw-Clay- Coahoma-Craighead-Crittenden-Crockett-Cross-DeSoto-Decatur- Dunklin-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-Greene-Hardeman-Hardin-Haywood- Henderson-Henry-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lake-Lauderdale-Lee AR-Lee MS- Madison-Marshall-McNairy-Mississippi-Monroe-Obion-Panola-Pemiscot- Phillips-Poinsett-Pontotoc-Prentiss-Quitman-Shelby-St. Francis- Tallahatchie-Tate-Tippah-Tipton-Tishomingo-Tunica-Union-Weakley- Yalobusha- 311 AM CDT Fri Jun 7 2019 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of East Arkansas... the Missouri Bootheel...North Mississippi...and West Tennessee. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight Heavy rainfall sufficient to produce localized areas of flash flooding will be possible today. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday Locally heavy rainfall will be possible Saturday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time. PWB
The Memphis radar (KNQA), 32 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 08:13 UTC.
4 flash flood, 1 heavy rain. Local standard time, as filed.
Flooded roads in parts of Germantown.
Parking lot of apartment complex had water several inches deep.
Roads closed due to flooding. Several streets around southeast Memphis had several inches of water causing closures for a period of time. Wemberly Drive between Shelby Drive and Tumbler Ridge Lane. Winchester Road between Hacks Cross and Forest Hill Irene. Polar Avenue and International as well as Front Street and Nettleton were flooded. Several homes were flooded across portions of Germantown and Southeast Memphis.
Rainfall totals of 6.70 inches from southern sections of Shelby County. Three miles south of Germantown received 5.62 inches and 1.4 miles southeast of Collierville received 6.68 inches.
High water flooded cars up over their wheel wells at a car dealership. The dealership is located near Nonconnah Creek which rose to 27.5 feet setting a new high record.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Tennessee in 2019Every state in 2019This day in weather historyWarnings in Tennessee, June 2019
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 827860, 827861, 827862, 827863, 827865.