Damaging Winds in South Dakota, July 16, 2019

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
507 PM MDT Tue Jul 16 2019

.DISCUSSION...(This Evening Through Tuesday)
Issued at 213 PM MDT Tue Jul 16 2019

Upper level zonal flow continued this morning across the northern
Great Plains today, with a transition to west northwest this
afternoon ahead of an approaching Pacific coast trough. A series of
strong waves are crossing western Montana through central Wyoming
and Colorado. Surface analysis shows low pressure across Wyoming,
with southeast moist flow across western SD. Dewpoints have once
again reached the 60s to around 70 across much of the area...and
drier across NE WY. Plenty of instability in place with MLCAPE of
1500-2500 J/kg. Effective bulk shear is increasing across the area,
peaking this afternoon at 50-60kt. Storm initiation will be across
typical higher terrain west and southwest of the CWA, which has
already begun. CAMs have been showing Laramie Range convection
moving northeast into southwest SD, crossing the southern Black
Hills around 00z, then continuing east-northwest into central SD. A
secondary line is then progged to cross northeast WY late this
afternoon or early this evening, then push through northwest SD
through the evening. Areawide is favorable for large hail, damaging
winds, and perhaps a tornado, but is most favorable across the
northern half of the CWA where shear is the strongest. Storms will
depart late this evening or just past midnight, with lingering
showers possible overnight behind a cold front pushing through.
Broad cyclonic flow will sit across the western half of the CONUS
Wednesday, with quiet morning weather and highs in the 80s. Still
enough post-frontal instability and shear for some storm
development, but coverage will be much less than today. Storms may
initiate across the Black Hills while others move in from the west.
A few could be strong or severe. Otherwise generally drier weather
is expected for the rest of the week as the main flow slides
northward. Temps will be near to slightly above average. The warmest
day will be Thursday, with highs well into the 90s across southwest
to south central SD.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS Through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued At 506 PM MDT Tue Jul 16 2019

Scattered thunderstorms will continue to develop over the next few
hours. Severe storms are likely, with large hail, very gusty
winds, and torrential rainfall expected. LIFR conditions will be
possible in and near storms. Otherwise, VFR conditions are
expected.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&

DISCUSSION...13
AVIATION...13

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
537 AM MDT Tue Jul 16 2019

SDZ012-024>031-041-042-072>074-WYZ054>058-071-171300-
Butte-Northern Black Hills-Northern Foot Hills-Rapid City-
Southern Foot Hills-Central Black Hills-Southern Black Hills-
Custer Co Plains-Pennington Co Plains-Fall River-Oglala Lakota-
Sturgis/Piedmont Foot Hills-Southern Meade Co Plains-
Hermosa Foot Hills-Northern Campbell-Southern Campbell-
Western Crook-Wyoming Black Hills-Weston-Northeastern Crook-
537 AM MDT Tue Jul 16 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northwestern
South Dakota...southwestern South Dakota...the Black Hills of
South Dakota...northeast Wyoming...and the Black Hills of
Wyoming.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are expected this
afternoon and evening across the area. Large hail, damaging winds,
and torrential rainfall are the main concern with any storm. An
isolated tornado or two will be possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

There is a chance for a few stronger thunderstorms on Wednesday,
with hail and strong wind gusts the main threats. Isolated
thunderstorms will be possible again on Friday, and into the
weekend.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed today.

&&

Stay tuned to NOAA weather radio for further updates...or check
our web site at weather.gov/rapidcity

SDZ001-002-013-014-032-043-044-046-047-049-171300-
Harding-Perkins-Northern Meade Co Plains-Ziebach-Haakon-Jackson-
Bennett-Mellette-Todd-Tripp-
537 AM MDT Tue Jul 16 2019 /637 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2019/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western South
Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are expected this
afternoon and evening across the area. Large hail, damaging winds,
and torrential rainfall are the main concern with any storm. An
isolated tornado or two will be possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Isolated thunderstorms will be possible on Wednesday, and again
on Friday and into the weekend. Organized severe storms are not
anticipated at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed today.

&&

Stay tuned to NOAA weather radio for further updates...or check
our web site at weather.gov/rapidcity

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