Hot and humid conditions produced heat indices between 105 and 108 degrees for areas mainly along and east of the Interstate 35 corridor July 16th and 17th of 2019.
Every event with a place to put it; 34 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS FWD wrote it up.
Hot and humid conditions produced heat indices between 105 and 108 degrees for areas mainly along and east of the Interstate 35 corridor July 16th and 17th of 2019.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Fort Worth, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 16, 11:45 AM CST, 15 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 1245 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2019 .DISCUSSION... Hot and humid conditions will be common across much of North and Central Texas this afternoon. A heat advisory will remain in effect for much of the area for heat index values between 105 and 108 degrees. Otherwise, there will be a low chance of a few showers and thunderstorms later this afternoon, mainly across northeast parts of area. The inherited 20 pops for these locations look reasonable at this time. Across the Metroplex, confidence is very low that storms will develop so will not mention in the forecast. Any convection that does develop should diminish shortly after 00z. && .AVIATION... /18Z TAFs/ VFR conditions will continue over the next 24 hours. Winds will generally be out of the south, with speeds between 10 and 14 knots. Confidence that storms will develop and impact the terminals is quite low so will not include VCTS/TS in the latest forecast. && .AVIATION... /Issued 621 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2019/ /12Z TAFs/ Concerns -- Isolated to widely scattered TSRA possible over Bonham arrival gate. VFR/S flow all terminals. North/Central TX remain within deep S-SEly flow this morning. To the northeast...TS are ongoing across southwest AR. These TS may result in the development of outflow boundary in the vicinity of the Red River later this afternoon which may act as focus for additional TS development. High-res guidance in agreement that TS may develop along a KGVT-KTXK line after 21Z...but disagree with respect to amount of coverage. While TS are not expected at any TAF sites...impacts to NE arrival gate are possible this afternoon...depending on amount of coverage. Right now...coverage appears more likely to be isolated in nature...but trends will need to be monitored through the afternoon. Convection should dissipate after 00Z. Otherwise...all terminals will remain VFR and in S flow through the TAF period. 37 && .SHORT TERM... /Issued 241 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2019/ /Today and Tonight/ The main challenge for today's forecast is whether or not we will see any convection develop in our northeastern counties. This morning, there is some convection ongoing across far southeastern Oklahoma and into southwestern Arkansas. In the upper levels, a subtle impulse is evident on water vapor satellite imagery moving south around the western periphery of the remnant low of what used to be Hurricane Barry. This impulse, combined with the potential for a residual outflow boundary from the ongoing convection, could allow some isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop this afternoon, generally north of I-30. Looking at the HREF and its respective members, there seem to be two camps. The more aggressive camp (made up of the NSSL-WRF, ARW, and NMMB) show more widespread and organized convection. This group of models develops convection quite rapidly during the afternoon, and sends it barreling south as a forward-propagating MCS. The more conservative camp (made up of the 3km NAM and HRRR) shows more isolated to widely scattered convection developing during the middle to late afternoon. One point of agreement is the location and timing of this convection. All of the aforementioned models show convection developing north of the I-30 corridor (generally northeast of the immediate Metroplex) during the 3 p.m. to 7 p.m. timeframe. Where they disagree is on the extent of the coverage. For now, will lean towards the more conservative solutions for two main reasons. First, the lack of a well-defined surface focusing mechanism, should generally limit coverage. The ongoing convection this morning however could produce a more extensive outflow boundary, but until we have a better idea of what kind of outflow boundary (if any at all) develops, decided it was best to lean on the conservative side. Secondly, upper-level wind shear should be weak, which should limit convective organization to disorganized, cellular convection. Again, there is some uncertainty as to how much of a surface forcing mechanism we will end up with this afternoon, thus introducing uncertainty with regards to coverage, but what we are more confident about is the potential for at least isolated convection northeast of the Metroplex. In terms of impacts from any of these thunderstorms, there will be a potential for localized damaging downburst winds. Forecast soundings show large boundary layer temperature/dewpoint spreads. Afternoon high temperatures are likely to approach (and potentially exceed) 100 F. The result is downdraft CAPE values on the order of 1,000 J/kg, meaning any thunderstorms that develop would be capable of damaging downburst winds. Any thunderstorms that form will also be capable of producing brief heavy downpours and occasional lightning strikes. As for the rest of the county warning area, a hot day is expected. Afternoon high temperatures will approach (and could potentially exceed) 100 F for much of the county warning area. Combined with dewpoints in the upper 60s to near 70, maximum heat index values will climb over 100 F, and in fact, will exceed Heat Advisory criteria (105 F) for most locations northeast of a Jacksboro to Corsicana line. For this reason, a Heat Advisory is in effect for today. The convective development mentioned in the previous couple of paragraphs could prevent criteria from being reached in our far northeastern counties, especially if convection turns out to be more widespread than currently forecast, but given the low confidence in the amount of coverage, and for the sake of consistency, will allow the Heat Advisory to ride as is for today. 37 && .LONG TERM... /Issued 241 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2019/ /Wednesday into Early Next Week/ Mainly hot and dry conditions are expected for much of the extended forecast, although the building mid-level ridging over the southern Plains will not be abnormally strong for this time of year. Regardless, temperatures near 95-100 on Wednesday will combine with surface dew points hanging tough in the upper 60s to lower 70s to produce heat indices around 100-110 across our entire area, with the worst focused along the 35 corridor and eastward, where the heat advisory will continue. Through the end of the week and into the early weekend, conditions are unlikely to change appreciably. Lee troughing across the central and northern Plains will continue to induce breezy southerly flow across our region, which will at least lessen the intensity of the heat and humidity slightly. Highs will remain in the mid/upper 90s, but dew points at peak heating may drop a few degrees (versus earlier in the week) thanks to continued upward mixing/dispersion of boundary-layer moisture and slow drying of soils/vegetation. In turn, heat indices may fall more into the 100-105 range for most locations Thursday into Friday; still, the heat advisory may need to be extended into at least Thursday for some eastern areas. Otherwise, southerly flow may bring scattered low-level stratocu into Central Texas and the Brazos Valley early each morning, before diurnal mixing converts these clouds into fair-weather cumulus. Late this weekend into early next week, most ensemble and deterministic guidance indicates that heights will rise dramatically over the Rockies, while a trough will develop across the eastern US. The GFS and some of its ensemble members (although they remain un-FV3) indicate a vigorous shortwave trough will drive a front and unseasonably dry air south across our area by Tuesday. This solution seems rather over-amplified, though, and a solution closer to the ECMWF would appear more likely, with a front hanging up to our northeast, yet perhaps boosting our precipitation chances by next Tuesday. Will continue to maintain a dry forecast at such an extended range, though, given inherent timing/uncertainty with the synoptic evolution. Picca && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 98 79 98 78 98 / 5 5 0 0 0 Waco 97 77 98 76 98 / 0 0 0 0 0 Paris 93 75 93 76 93 / 20 10 0 0 0 Denton 98 78 98 78 98 / 5 5 0 0 0 McKinney 97 78 98 77 97 / 10 5 0 0 0 Dallas 99 80 99 78 98 / 5 5 0 0 0 Terrell 96 77 98 78 98 / 5 5 0 0 0 Corsicana 95 77 94 75 93 / 0 0 0 0 0 Temple 96 76 95 75 96 / 0 0 0 0 0 Mineral Wells 98 75 98 75 97 / 0 0 0 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Wednesday for TXZ091>095-101>107- 116>123-131>135-144>148-159>162-175. &&
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 242 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2019 TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-170745- Montague-Cooke-Grayson-Fannin-Lamar-Young-Jack-Wise-Denton-Collin- Hunt-Delta-Hopkins-Stephens-Palo Pinto-Parker-Tarrant-Dallas- Rockwall-Kaufman-Van Zandt-Rains-Eastland-Erath-Hood-Somervell- Johnson-Ellis-Henderson-Comanche-Mills-Hamilton-Bosque-Hill-Navarro- Freestone-Anderson-Lampasas-Coryell-Bell-McLennan-Falls-Limestone- Leon-Milam-Robertson- 242 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2019 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for North and Central Texas. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight. Heat index values today will reach around 105 to 108 degrees in many locations. Take necessary precautions to avoid heat-related illnesses. Isolated thunderstorms may develop generally northeast of a Sherman to Emory line this afternoon and evening. Lighting, brief heavy rain, and gusty winds would be the main threats. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday. Heat index values on Wednesday will once again reach upwards of 105 to 110 degrees, especially along and east of the I-35 corridor. Hot weather will continue into the weekend, with heat indices still reaching upwards of 105 in some spots. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
34 heat. Local standard time, as filed.
Heat index values between 105 and 108 degrees occurred across the county during the afternoons of July 16th and 17th of 2019.
Heat index values between 105 and 108 degrees occurred across the county during the afternoons of July 16th and 17th of 2019.
Heat index values between 105 and 108 degrees occurred across the county during the afternoons of July 16th and 17th of 2019.
Heat index values between 105 and 108 degrees occurred across the county during the afternoons of July 16th and 17th of 2019.
Heat index values between 105 and 108 degrees occurred across the county during the afternoons of July 16th and 17th of 2019.
Heat index values between 105 and 108 degrees occurred across the county during the afternoons of July 16th and 17th of 2019.
Heat index values between 105 and 108 degrees occurred across the county during the afternoons of July 16th and 17th of 2019.
Heat index values between 105 and 108 degrees occurred across the county during the afternoons of July 16th and 17th of 2019. County officials reported 2 cases of Heat Exhaustion on these days.
Heat index values between 105 and 108 degrees occurred across the county during the afternoons of July 16th and 17th of 2019.
Heat index values between 105 and 108 degrees occurred across the county during the afternoons of July 16th and 17th of 2019.
Heat index values between 105 and 108 degrees occurred across the county during the afternoons of July 16th and 17th of 2019.
Heat index values between 105 and 108 degrees occurred across the county during the afternoons of July 16th and 17th of 2019.
Heat index values between 105 and 108 degrees occurred across the county during the afternoons of July 16th and 17th of 2019.
Heat index values between 105 and 108 degrees occurred across the county during the afternoons of July 16th and 17th of 2019.
Heat index values between 105 and 108 degrees occurred across the county during the afternoons of July 16th and 17th of 2019.
Heat index values between 105 and 108 degrees occurred across the county during the afternoons of July 16th and 17th of 2019.
Heat index values between 105 and 108 degrees occurred across the county during the afternoons of July 16th and 17th of 2019.
Heat index values between 105 and 108 degrees occurred across the county during the afternoons of July 16th and 17th of 2019.
Heat index values between 105 and 108 degrees occurred across the county during the afternoons of July 16th and 17th of 2019.
Heat index values between 105 and 108 degrees occurred across the county during the afternoons of July 16th and 17th of 2019.
Heat index values between 105 and 108 degrees occurred across the county during the afternoons of July 16th and 17th of 2019.
Heat index values between 105 and 108 degrees occurred across the county during the afternoons of July 16th and 17th of 2019.
Heat index values between 105 and 108 degrees occurred across the county during the afternoons of July 16th and 17th of 2019.
Heat index values between 105 and 108 degrees occurred across the county during the afternoons of July 16th and 17th of 2019.
Heat index values between 105 and 108 degrees occurred across the county during the afternoons of July 16th and 17th of 2019.
Heat index values between 105 and 108 degrees occurred across the county during the afternoons of July 16th and 17th of 2019.
Heat index values between 105 and 108 degrees occurred across the county during the afternoons of July 16th and 17th of 2019.
Heat index values between 105 and 108 degrees occurred across the county during the afternoons of July 16th and 17th of 2019.
Heat index values between 105 and 108 degrees occurred across the county during the afternoons of July 16th and 17th of 2019.
Heat index values between 105 and 108 degrees occurred across the county during the afternoons of July 16th and 17th of 2019.
Heat index values between 105 and 108 degrees occurred across the county during the afternoons of July 16th and 17th of 2019.
Heat index values between 105 and 108 degrees occurred across the county during the afternoons of July 16th and 17th of 2019.
Heat index values between 105 and 108 degrees occurred across the county during the afternoons of July 16th and 17th of 2019.
Heat index values between 105 and 108 degrees occurred across the county during the afternoons of July 16th and 17th of 2019.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Texas in 2019Every state in 2019This day in weather historyWarnings in Texas, July 2019
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 845721, 845722, 845723, 845724, 845725, 845726, 845727, 845728, 845729, 845730, 845731, 845732, 845734, 845735, 845736, 845737, 845738, 845739, 845740, 845741, 845742, 845743, 845744, 845745, 845746, 845747, 845748, 845749, 845750, 845751, 845752, 845753, 845754, 845756.