An isolated thunderstorm formed over Alleghany County, NC, striking a home with lightning and starting a fire.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS RNK wrote it up.
An isolated thunderstorm formed over Alleghany County, NC, striking a home with lightning and starting a fire.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Blacksburg, VA wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 16, 12:56 PM EST, 1 hour 24 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 156 PM EDT Tue Jul 16 2019 .SYNOPSIS... Weak high pressure over the southern Appalachians will slowly move east today while a front across northern Virginia moves to the northern Mid-Atlantic. Low pressure that was once Tropical Storm Barry will push across the Ohio Valley Wednesday. A frontal boundary moves through the region Thursday morning. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1015 AM EDT Tuesday... Only minor tweaks to existing grids this morning as scattered showers and thunderstorms still possible today but pops remain only in the 20-30 percent chance range. Air mass remains seasonably moist with PWAT of 1.41 inches on 12z KRNK sounding which is down slightly from yesterday evening but still above mid-July climo at about 75th percentile. Any slow-moving storms would still be capable of producing decent rain totals. Seeing more clouds from the remains of Barry this morning which may hold down instability some but unlikely to suppress all convection. As of 250 AM EDT Tuesday... Upper ridge continues to stay over the southeast today, while the front that was over northern Virginia lifts northeast today ahead of the remnants of Barry. For our area, will see isolated to scattered convection once again firing up around midday, then shifting slowly mainly in an east to northeast fashion. However wind flow will be weak, so not of the question to see heavy rainers and localized flooding. As far as the severe threat, cannot rule out isolated strong to severe storms with downbursts the main threat. The Storm Prediction Center has just a general thunderstorm outlook for us, and given such an isolated threat, this makes sense. Highest pops today will be along the southern Blue Ridge as numerous models agree on convection firing here with orographic effects, so went 40-50 here...and this could be another area to watch for localized flooding if thunderstorms are slow and stay anchored on the mountains. By this evening, the showers and storms fade again toward midnight. The upper ridge begins to break down as upper trough/low associated with Barry moves closer toward the Ohio Valley. Should see clearing skies and fog potential again where it rained and in typical mountain valleys. Expect high temps close to what we had Monday with lower 80s NC mountains and portions of the Alleghanys along the WV/VA border, figuring thunderstorms are going to fire up here earlier, with mid to upper 80s elsewhere in the mountains. Roanoke and points east will reach the lower to mid 90s. Dewpoints should drop into the upper 60s this afternoon, resulting in heat indices of 95 to 99, with the higher heat indices above 100 expected east of a Farmville VA to Durham NC line. Lows tonight again not changing much as persistent pattern/airmass should keep temps in the mid to upper 60s in the mountains, to around 70 to lower 70s east. Forecast confidence in temps/wind and sky is above normal, with average confidence on storm coverage. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 210 AM EDT Tuesday... Weather for mid-week will feature remnants from Barry, the crux of the upper support passing to our north, but with an axis of vorticity trailing to the south as the closed feature begins to shear into an open wave. Instability from Wednesday into Thursday is expected to be plentiful, so anticipate scattered to numerous showers with embedded thunderstorms. Models suggest the most favorable time frame for measurable rainfall directly associated with the tropical remnants will be from Wednesday afternoon through Thursday morning, the vorticity axis passing overhead at that time. QPF is forecast to be the heaviest from the Ohio Valley into the western slopes where westerly flow aloft will act to enhance the rainfall, but as the system crosses the Appalachians, precip production is expected to go down per westerly downslope flow. At the moment, our day 2-3 forecast rain totals average from about an inch of QPF on the western slopes to a general quarter of an inch across the piedmont. Keep in mind PWATs are running around 2 inches, therefore localized torrential downpours are possible. Temperatures are expected to be seasonally warm, tempered to some degree by the showers and anticipated cloud cover. The high dewpoints however, with readings forecast in the 70s, will maintain the mugginess. A frontal boundary will slowly move across the region Thursday morning, stalling over the piedmont in the afternoon. Behind this boundary, PWATS fall to around 1.50 inches while ahead they remain near 2.00 inches. Ridging aloft begins to build eastward through the day, which should limit convective activity. However, diurnal heating and a stalled boundary/lee trough could produce some storms along and east of Route 29 which may contain heavy downpours during the afternoon and evening hours. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 345 PM EDT Monday... For Friday and into the upcoming weekend... the upper ridge strengthens with potential for 500 mb heights to test 595 dm. As such, pattern favors some very warm temperatures for the weekend, 85h Temps of +23 to +24 deg C, yeilding surface readings well into the 90s east of the Blue Ridge. Dewpoints are also expected to remain elevated, so heat indices may eclipse 100 for several days in a row...potentially testing 105 degrees by Saturday. Some relief may come from pop-up afternoon/evening showers and thundershowers, but coverage is expected to be limited per lack of any significant forcing mechanism and overall subsidence from the upper level ridging. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 145 PM EDT Tuesday... Mainly VFR conditions expected with occasional periods of MVFR/IFR possible in widely scattered thunderstorms this afternoon and evening but not enough for VCTS. Patchy fog may reduced vsbys at more favored locations. .Extended Aviation Discussion... The occurrence of sub-VFR conditions will increase Wednesday afternoon into Thursday as a shortwave trough approaches and the crosses the area, bringing along with it some of the tropical moisture associated with the remnants of Barry. Expect an increase in shower and thunderstorm coverage, and subsequent late night/early morning stratus/fog. By Friday into Saturday, a shortwave ridge returns overhead, and this will curtail, but not remove the potential for diurnally based showers and storms, with the focus for most activity across the mountains. Depending upon ground moisture for the days heading into the weekend, late night/early morning fog could again be a possibility. Confidence in the above aviation scenario is moderate. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && SYNOPSIS...DS/WP NEAR TERM...PC/WP SHORT TERM...RCS LONG TERM...PM AVIATION...PC/WP
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 444 AM EDT Tue Jul 16 2019 NCZ001>003-018>020-VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035-WVZ042>044-507-508- 170845- Ashe-Alleghany NC-Surry-Watauga-Wilkes-Yadkin-Tazewell-Smyth-Bland- Giles-Wythe-Pulaski-Montgomery-Grayson-Carroll-Floyd-Craig- Alleghany VA-Bath-Roanoke-Botetourt-Rockbridge-Patrick-Franklin- Bedford-Amherst-Mercer-Summers-Monroe-Eastern Greenbrier- Western Greenbrier- 444 AM EDT Tue Jul 16 2019 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central North Carolina, northwest North Carolina, central Virginia, south central Virginia, southwest Virginia, west central Virginia and southeast West Virginia. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday. Thunderstorms Wednesday are likely to produce torrential downpours. Localized flash flooding will be possible. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. NCZ004>006-VAZ043>047-058-059-170845- Stokes-Rockingham-Caswell-Henry-Pittsylvania-Campbell-Appomattox- Buckingham-Halifax-Charlotte- 444 AM EDT Tue Jul 16 2019 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central North Carolina, central Virginia and south central Virginia. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday. Heat index values may exceed 100 degrees late this week, especially Friday into the weekend. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1252 PM EDT TUE JUL 16 2019
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0730 PM FLOOD 2 SW MC DONALDS MILL 37.28N 80.30W
07/15/2019 MONTGOMERY VA PUBLIC
FLOODING OBSERVED ON PRIVATE LAND ALONG A
SMALL TRIBUTARY THAT FEEDS INTO THE NORTH
FORK OF THE ROANOKE RIVER. MAIN IMPACT WAS
TO FIELDS AND FARMLAND. RADAR ESTIMATED 2.90
INCHES OF RAIN IN LESS THAN 2 HOURS.
&&
PMThe Roanoke radar (KFCX), 109 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 19:21 UTC.
1 lightning. Local standard time, as filed.
Lightning struck a home on Willies Road, igniting a fire. The home was completely destroyed by the fire.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in North Carolina in 2019Every state in 2019This day in weather historyWarnings in North Carolina, July 2019
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 847023.