Widely scattered storms developed in a moderately high CAPE environment over the higher terrain of the Appalachians during the afternoon of July 16, 2019. One of the storms produced wind damage in Cumberland County.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS CTP wrote it up.
Widely scattered storms developed in a moderately high CAPE environment over the higher terrain of the Appalachians during the afternoon of July 16, 2019. One of the storms produced wind damage in Cumberland County.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS State College, PA wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 16, 4:58 PM EST, 1 hour 52 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 558 PM EDT Tue Jul 16 2019 .SYNOPSIS... ---Mid Summer heat and humidity to stick around through the weekend--- The remnants of once Hurricane Barry will move through the area Wednesday through early Thursday. Otherwise we will be dealing with hazy hot and very humid conditions until early next week when some relief is in sight. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... As advertised, dewpoints soared with the passage of the warm front, and with the developing instability we have seen scattered showers and thunderstorms form. The not-very- organized activity seems to align along an axis from the NRN Mountains down through State College to southern Bedford and Fulton Counties. The latest HRRR has not been very helpful thus far, so the near term POPs are a blend of extrapolation and what the HRW NSSL suggests for the remainder of the afternoon. Convection will tend to diminish after sunset, but given the ensemble POPs it's hard to forecast a totally dry overnight anywhere. I basically went with low chance POPs most of the overnight in most areas, but ramp things up late over the NW where the ensemble MOS guidance all point to increasing chances for late night showers and thunderstorms. It will be a very mild to steamy night with lows ranging from the mid and upper 60s north to the lower to mid 70s south. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... *Heavy downpours possible Wed with remnants of TC Barry. The airmass will be very juicy with PWATs in the 1.75-2" range, or some 2-3 sigma. The threat for local downpours cannot be ignored, but the diffuse nature of the unwinding tropical system makes it hard to pinpoint a best area for potential heavy rain/flooding. The SREF and GEFS show the best chance for inch or more rains being over the NRN 1/3 or so of the forecast area, which matches pretty well with the SPC HREF through the day Wednesday. Models are consistent in keeping highs very warm to hot, suggesting there will be at least some sunshine and the rain will be very convective. With that in mind I favored the afternoon with the highest chances for rain/thunder. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... *Excessive heat risk Fri-Sat Model guidance continues to signal the potential for excessive heat around the end of the week and into the weekend. Maximum heat index values peak in the 100-105 range Friday and Saturday. Heat headlines appear likely during this time and will continue to highlight heat risk via HWO, social media and DSS briefings. Very warm mid-level temperatures may act to limit/cap t-storms Fri-Sun. That said, models hint at the potential for MCS activity propagating along wavy frontal zone on the northern periphery of summertime upper ridge/heat dome. New part of discussion below. I did look over temperatures and dewpoints several times this shift. Made a few minor adjustments to the temperatures and dewpoints. I did cut pops back some after early Thursday, and prior to later Sunday, based on mew model data and a very warm airmass. Flow is fast and strong across the US and Canada border overall for mid July, but we are south of the main westerlies. The airmass is warmer than what we have seen lately. 1991 and 1995 featured such warm air. In this case, the warmest air is advected toward BUF late Friday. Warmest air for central PA is Friday into Saturday. 850 mb temperatures fcst to be near plus 24 degrees at 850 mb late Friday across Lake Erie. Will be interesting to see how fast water temperatures come up on Lake Erie by next week. A cool down is expected by next Tuesday, as the mean upper level trough is nearby. && .AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Widespread VFR will be interrupted by some brief MVFR CIGS and VSBYS in pulse-variety TSRA across the Susq Valley and north-central mtns through early this evening INVOF of a slowly eastward moving warm front. A few short lines could exhibit bowing structures as water-loaded/rain cores collapse and fan out cool outflow air to the east. Shower activity is most likely to continue across the far northwest airspace late tonight into Wednesday morning. Elsewhere, some MVFR fog is possible late in areas where it rains. Confidence is too low at this time to include in TAFs, but conditions will improve rapidly after sunrise. .Outlook... Wed...Scattered to numerous showers/thunderstorms with heavy downpours probable. Thu-Sun...Mainly VFR with isolated PM thunderstorms possible. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && SYNOPSIS...La Corte NEAR TERM...La Corte SHORT TERM...La Corte LONG TERM...Martin/Steinbugl AVIATION...La Corte/Lambert
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service State College PA 708 PM EDT Tue Jul 16 2019 PAZ019-025>027-034-035-045-046-049>053-058-172315- Southern Centre-Blair-Huntingdon-Mifflin-Bedford-Fulton- Southern Clinton-Southern Lycoming-Union-Snyder-Montour- Northumberland-Columbia-Schuylkill- 708 PM EDT Tue Jul 16 2019 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania. .DAY ONE...Tonight. The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday. Scattered showers and thunderstorm Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night may produce localized flash flooding. A few strong thunderstorms with gusty winds are also possible Wednesday afternoon and evening. Dangerous heat is likely Friday and Saturday with a maximum heat index between 100 and 105 degrees during the afternoon. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. PAZ028-036-056-057-059-063>066-172315- Juniata-Franklin-Perry-Dauphin-Lebanon-Cumberland-Adams-York- Lancaster- 708 PM EDT Tue Jul 16 2019 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania. .DAY ONE...Tonight. The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday. Scattered showers and thunderstorm Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night may produce localized flash flooding. A few strong thunderstorms with gusty winds are also possible Wednesday afternoon and evening. Dangerous to extreme heat is possible Friday into Sunday with a maximum heat index 105 to 110 degrees during the afternoon. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. PAZ012-017-018-024-033-041-042-172315- Northern Clinton-Clearfield-Northern Centre-Cambria-Somerset- Northern Lycoming-Sullivan- 708 PM EDT Tue Jul 16 2019 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania. .DAY ONE...Tonight. The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday. Scattered showers and thunderstorm Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night may produce localized flash flooding. A few strong thunderstorms with gusty winds are also possible Wednesday afternoon and evening. Dangerous heat is possible Friday and Saturday with a maximum heat index between 95 and 100 degrees during the afternoon. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. PAZ004>006-010-011-037-172315- Warren-McKean-Potter-Elk-Cameron-Tioga- 708 PM EDT Tue Jul 16 2019 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania. .DAY ONE...Tonight. The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday. SScattered showers and thunderstorm Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night may produce localized flash flooding. Dangerous heat is possible Friday and Saturday with a maximum heat index between 95 and 100 degrees during the afternoon. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
Special Weather Statement National Weather Service State College PA 336 PM EDT Tue Jul 16 2019 PAZ049>052-162000- Union PA-Northumberland PA-Montour PA-Snyder PA- 336 PM EDT Tue Jul 16 2019 ...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT PARTS OF NORTHUMBERLAND... SNYDER...MONTOUR...AND UNION COUNTIES UNTIL 400 PM EDT... At 335 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm over Penns Creek, moving east at 35 mph. Very heavy rain and wind gusts 40 to 50 mph are possible. Locations impacted include... Sunbury, Milton, Lewisburg, Selinsgrove, Northumberland, Mifflinburg, Winfield, Riverside, Trevorton, Shamokin Dam, Linntown, Hummels Wharf, Middleburg, Montandon, Kreamer, Penns Creek, Kratzerville, Paxtonville, Vicksburg and Mooresburg. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Minor flooding may develop. Do not drive into water covering the roadway. && LAT...LON 4074 7716 4091 7721 4104 7667 4078 7660 TIME...MOT...LOC 1935Z 258DEG 31KT 4085 7710 La Corte
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
523 PM EDT Tue Jul 16 2019
PAZ042-162215-
Sullivan PA-
523 PM EDT Tue Jul 16 2019
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT PARTS OF SULLIVAN COUNTY UNTIL
615 PM EDT...
At 523 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm over
Lincoln Falls, moving east northeast at 30 mph.
Wind gusts 40 to 50 mph and pea size hail are possible.
Locations impacted include...
Lincoln Falls, Shunk, Kettle Creek Gorge, Dushore, Forksville and
Hillsgrove.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Persons in campgrounds should consider seeking sturdy shelter until
this storm passes.
&&
LAT...LON 4150 7623 4147 7625 4142 7673 4148 7677
4156 7677 4158 7672 4154 7622 4153 7622
TIME...MOT...LOC 2123Z 256DEG 28KT 4153 7661
LambertSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
532 PM EDT Tue Jul 16 2019
PAZ056-057-063-065-162230-
Perry PA-York PA-Cumberland PA-Dauphin PA-
532 PM EDT Tue Jul 16 2019
...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT PARTS OF YORK...DAUPHIN...
PERRY...AND CUMBERLAND COUNTIES UNTIL 630 PM EDT...
At 531 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated 2 strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from Wertzville to near Dillsburg. Movement was
east northeast at 25 mph.
Wind gusts 40 to 50 mph and half inch hail are possible.
Locations impacted include...
Harrisburg, Lower Allen, Hershey, Colonial Park, Progress,
Mechanicsburg, Middletown, Camp Hill, Palmyra, New Cumberland,
Linglestown, Enola, Steelton, Lemoyne, Hummelstown, Paxtonia,
Rutherford, Skyline View, Lawnton and Campbelltown.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.
&&
LAT...LON 4030 7712 4047 7667 4021 7657 4019 7659
4019 7661 4018 7662 4011 7710
TIME...MOT...LOC 2131Z 256DEG 22KT 4030 7706 4016 7706
LambertSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
653 PM EDT Tue Jul 16 2019
PAZ059-066-162345-
Lancaster PA-Lebanon PA-
653 PM EDT Tue Jul 16 2019
...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT PARTS OF LANCASTER AND LEBANON
COUNTIES UNTIL 745 PM EDT...
At 652 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated strong thunderstorms along a
line extending from near Schaefferstown to Brickerville to near
Lititz. Movement was east at 25 mph.
Wind gusts 40 to 50 mph and pea size hail are possible.
Strong thunderstorms will be near...
Brickerville around 655 PM EDT.
Rothsville and Kleinfeltersville around 705 PM EDT.
Akron around 710 PM EDT.
Reamstown, Denver and Bareville around 715 PM EDT.
Ephrata and Adamstown around 720 PM EDT.
New Holland and Terre Hill around 730 PM EDT.
Other locations impacted by these storms include Goodville,
Schoeneck, Bowmansville, Penryn and Fivepointville.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in State College PA.
&&
LAT...LON 4010 7594 4006 7594 4014 7639 4022 7638
4032 7639 4034 7618 4031 7614 4014 7587
TIME...MOT...LOC 2252Z 270DEG 21KT 4033 7633 4023 7629 4016 7635
LambertThe State College radar (KCCX), 115 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 23:49 UTC.
1 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
A severe thunderstorm producing winds estimated near 60 mph knocked down trees and wires in Mechanicsburg.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Pennsylvania in 2019Every state in 2019This day in weather historyWarnings in Pennsylvania, July 2019
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 842570.