Winter Storm in Pennsylvania, January 19 to 20, 2019

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
718 AM EST Sat Jan 19 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure in the Mid-Mississippi Valley will track to eastern
Kentucky by this evening and spread significant snowfall to much of
the area. The low pressure area will move to New Jersey by Sunday
morning as arctic high pressure begins to build into the region in
the wake of the storm.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Forecast remains on track and regional radars show snow
expanding upstream across northern Indiana. Snow will fill in
along the I-75 corridor through 9 AM and reach the I-71 corridor
by late morning.

Previous discussion...Winter Storm Warnings remain in effect
for the entire area with varying expiration times ranging from
late tonight to late Sunday night. A Lakeshore Flood Watch also
remains in effect for western portions of Lake Erie(see below).
Little changes were made to the overall snowfall forecast with
accumulations ranging from near 4 inches in Toledo to 10 inches
or locally higher from Youngstown into Pennsylvania. Areas from
Toledo to Erie, PA have already seen some light snow overnight
as isentropic ascent starts to develop ahead of the approaching
system. Widespread snow can be seen on regional radars
approaching from the southwest on the north side of a low
pressure system nearing eastern Missouri. The forecast low track
remains similar as it crosses Kentucky today with a slight
northward nudge by this evening as it reaches the Ohio/West
Virginia border. This is a favorable track for heavy snow in
central and Northeast Ohio/NW PA. Snow will reach Northwest Ohio
by mid-morning and quickly expand east across the area through
early afternoon as lift ramps up along the 700mb baroclinic
zone. The heaviest snow is still on track to occur this
afternoon and evening with the greatest axis focused from
Central Ohio across Northeast Ohio into Northwest Pennsylvania.
This area is just north of a warm nose of air that may cause
some mixing along the I-70 corridor to our south. Our forecast
remains all snow but snow ratios in the southern counties could
end up needing to be lowered a little more if the warm air
spreads farther north than expected.

One change to this evening was to slow down the departing snow
across North Central Ohio. As the upper level wave approaches from
the southwest this evening, models are showing both enhanced
frontogenesis and deformation nosing up into Ashland/Richland
Counties before shifting east towards Youngstown. South of this area
will see a mid-level dry-slot nose in but somewhere just to the
north can expect another window of enhanced snow rates. We will need
to watch trends and consider raising accumulations if snow looks
more than forecast. One aspect of this event that remains unclear is
the contribution of Lake Erie with a strong northeasterly fetch down
the lake. The forecast accounts for an extra inch or so of snow
across portions of Erie/Huron/Lorain Counties but may not fully
materialize given the airmass is not initially very cold. Lake
Erie will help to enhance northeast winds with gusts to 40 mph
expected late afternoon into this evening across much of
Northwest Ohio and along the lakeshore, with gusts closer to 35
mph in eastern areas tonight. These contribution of these high
winds and the blowing and drifting of snow is the reason
portions of NW Ohio are included in the warning despite the
lower snowfall forecast. Considerable blowing and drifting is
expected, especially on west to east oriented roadways like the
Ohio Turn Pike. The other concern by tonight will be the rapidly
falling temperatures that will arrive behind this system. The
snow will start off wetter on Saturday with temperatures near 30
degrees. Temperatures will fall into the teens overnight which
will cause wet surfaces to freeze and become slick.

Water levels are also forecast to rise along the south shore of Lake
Erie for portions of Lucas/Ottawa/Erie Counties. The current
forecast calls for water levels to approach warning levels but not
exceed them so will leave the Lakeshore Flood Watch in tact for now.

Snow tapers off from west to east overnight into Monday with a dry
arctic airmass arriving. Some lake effect snow will continue, mainly
downwind of Lake Huron which appears to be focused across
Lorain/Cuyahoga/Medina Counties with northerly flow. Accumulations
will be enhanced by the upslope component and Medina County looks
like the focus for additional 2 to 4 inches of snow. Eastern
portions of the snow belt will dry out faster without contribution
from Lake Huron and we may be able to cancel the warning early,
especially in NW PA. Confidence remains low in the lake effect
coverage and intensity as dewpoints north of the lakes fall below
zero. This usually greatly limits lake effect potential and
available moisture.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Light lake effect will likely be continuing Sunday night into
Monday, but with the dry airmass, expect little impactful
accumulation. This will slowly transition eastward and taper with
the backing winds later Monday. It will be very cold Sunday night.
Those not under lake effect cloud cover will see below zero readings
and those with the cloud cover have the chance of staying above
zero. Did go below climo biased guidance for temperatures from
Toledo to Findlay to Marion with the expectation that winds by
morning will be light enough for a good drop. Wind chills Sunday
night/Monday morning will be -10 to -20 degrees. A wind chill
advisory is still a possibility. Monday night will still be very
cold, but will have less wind to contend with. The next system
across the central Plains and high pressure sitting off of the east
coast will pull warm, moist air northward for Tuesday. We will have
a steady rise through the day and into Tuesday night. Undercut
guidance as it will be a bit more difficult to bring that warm air
across the snowpack. That transition usually is slower than
forecast. Removed most of the precipitation chance from Tuesday and
centered them on Tuesday night/early Wednesday with a wintry mix.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Temperatures will remain seasonable through Friday.
Precipitation chances remain in the forecast as the cold front
that crosses the area early Wednesday likely gets hung up across
the Ohio Valley. Models unsure whether another wave on the
front will bring precip back into the area for Thursday. Friday
looks to be the leading end of another blast of cold air with
high pressure diving south out of Canada to the northern Plains.
But a number of details need to be worked out with the long
term forecast yet.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/...
Widespread snow event to impact all terminals today and will be
heavy at times, mainly east. Although light snow has been
falling overnight at ERI, snow will generally fill in today from
west to east and will reach TOL/FDY towards 13Z and CLE towards
15Z. MVFR ceilings will fall to IFR as snow arrives. IFR
visibilities will become widespread with several hours of 1/2
mile or less in falling and blowing snow, especially between
18-06Z. Northeast winds will increase through the day on
Saturday with gusts to 30+ knots at several terminals during
the late afternoon and into tonight. Winds will back to more
northerly late. Conditions will begin to improve at the western
terminals by 00Z but some blowing snow may continue beyond that
time.

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR in snow at times across the snowbelt on
Sunday and Monday. Non-VFR possible Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Strong northeasterly winds will develop today with a strong pressure
gradient as low pressure tracks across the Ohio Valley and high
pressure remains positioned across the northern lakes and northern
Plains. Winds are expected to peak at 35 knot Gales tonight,
diminishing for Sunday. A small craft advisory will surely follow
the Gale Warning and likely last through Sunday night. Air
temperatures are expected to plummet through the teens Sunday and
into the single digits for Sunday night. Heavy freezing spray is
still a concern and a warning may be needed for extreme spray with
the juxtaposition of temperatures getting below about 12 and winds
still around 30 knots Sunday afternoon/evening. High pressure will
pass across the lake Monday quieting the lake but also allowing for
the possibility of a fast freeze on the western basin. See the Ice
Outlook/Marine Weather Statement for a possible Ice Advisory. South
through southwest winds increase on the lake going into Wednesday
with a cold front crossing the lake early Wednesday. This will
likely be another small craft advisory situation.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Winter Storm Warning until 4 AM EST Monday for OHZ010>014-
     020>023-089.
     Winter Storm Warning until 10 AM EST Sunday for OHZ009-017>019-
     027>033-036>038-047.
     Winter Storm Warning until 4 AM EST Sunday for OHZ003-006>008.
     Coastal Flood Watch through Sunday morning for OHZ003-007-009.
PA...Winter Storm Warning until 4 AM EST Monday for PAZ001>003.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM EST this afternoon for
     LEZ142>149.
     Gale Warning from 3 PM this afternoon to 4 AM EST Sunday for
     LEZ142>149-162>169.

&&

SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC
SHORT TERM...Oudeman
LONG TERM...Oudeman
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...Oudeman

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
743 AM EST Sat Jan 19 2019

OHZ009-201245-
Erie-
743 AM EST Sat Jan 19 2019

...LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY...
...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Lakeshore Flood Warning.
   Winter Storm Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Lakeshore Flood Warning.
   Winter Storm Warning.

Wind chills will fall to 5 to 15 below zero Sunday night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter reports of snowfall will be appreciated.

OHZ006-008-201245-
Wood-Sandusky-
743 AM EST Sat Jan 19 2019

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwest Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Storm Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Wind chills will fall to 10 to 20 below zero Sunday night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter reports of snowfall will be appreciated.

OHZ003-007-201245-
Lucas-Ottawa-
743 AM EST Sat Jan 19 2019

...LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY...
...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwest Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Lakeshore Flood Warning.
   Winter Storm Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Lakeshore Flood Warning.

Wind chills will fall to 10 to 20 below zero Sunday night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter reports of snowfall will be appreciated.

OHZ017>019-027>033-036>038-047-201245-
Hancock-Seneca-Huron-Wyandot-Crawford-Richland-Ashland-Wayne-Stark-
Mahoning-Marion-Morrow-Holmes-Knox-
743 AM EST Sat Jan 19 2019

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central Ohio, northeast
Ohio and northwest Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Storm Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Storm Warning.

Wind chills will fall to 10 to 20 below zero Sunday night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter reports of snowfall will be appreciated.

OHZ010>014-020>023-089-PAZ001>003-201245-
Lorain-Cuyahoga-Lake-Geauga-Ashtabula Inland-Medina-Summit-Portage-
Trumbull-Ashtabula Lakeshore-Northern Erie-Southern Erie-Crawford-
743 AM EST Sat Jan 19 2019

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central Ohio, northeast
Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Storm Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Storm Warning.

Wind chills will fall to 5 to 20 below zero Sunday night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter reports of snowfall will be appreciated.

LEZ061-142>149-162>169-201245-
Lake Erie open waters from Ripley to Buffalo NY-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Maumee Bay to Reno Beach OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Reno Beach to The Islands OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from The Islands to Vermilion OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Vermilion to Avon Point OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Avon Point to Willowick OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Willowick to Geneva-on-the Lake OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Geneva-on-the-Lake to Conneaut OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Conneaut OH to Ripley NY-
Lake Erie open waters from Maumee Bay to Reno Beach OH-
Lake Erie open waters from Reno Beach to The Islands OH-
Lake Erie open waters from The Islands to Vermilion OH-
Lake Erie open waters from Vermilion to Avon Point OH-
Lake Erie open waters from Avon Point to Willowick OH-
Lake Erie open waters from Willowick to Geneva-on-the-Lake OH-
Lake Erie open waters from Geneva-on-the-Lake to Conneaut OH-
Lake Erie open waters from Conneaut OH to Ripley NY-
743 AM EST Sat Jan 19 2019

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST
SUNDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Lake Erie.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Heavy freezing spray is likely late Saturday night through Sunday
evening as temperatures plunge into the teens and eventually single
digits. In addition, rapid ice growth can be expected on Lake Erie
Monday into Tuesday with an arctic airmass in place.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed.

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>