Wildfire in Oregon, July 24 to 29, 2019

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
747 PM PDT Wed Jul 24 2019

.UPDATE...Currently skies are completely clear across the forecast
area. Current forecast looks on track and will not update this
evening. -Sven

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 258 PM PDT Wed Jul 24 2019/

DISCUSSION...Current observations are showing clear skies across
the entirety of the forecast area, including the coastal waters.
This is indicative of the area of high pressure stemming from the
four corners region of the US. This area of high pressure will be
the main story for the entirety of the forecast period with warm
and dry conditions continuing each day with cool to mild nights.

The main focus on the forecast was for the coastally trapped wind
reversal and the short-wave coming through on Friday. As far as
the coastally trapped wind-reversal, don't believe that it will
cause too much of a problem tonight, but will show up Thursday
night into Brookings and maybe as far as gold beach.

For the short-wave trough, ensemble guidance has indicated that
this short wave will move through the Pacific Northwest and
northern California on Thursday night and Friday around the four
corners high. This will create more zonal (east- west) flow
aloft. This could bring in a chance of precipitation to northern
California Thursday night into Friday per the GFS as opposed to
the ECMWF which brings precipitation in a little bit later on
Friday.

Nocturnal thunderstorms are notoriously difficult to predict, and
the GFS tends to latch onto the pattern before other models, so
from past experiences, have introduced a slight chance of
thunderstorms for areas of northern California (east of Interstate
5) for Thursday night and continue the slight chance for
thunderstorms across the warners through Friday.

After that, the high pressure system returns continuing the warm
and dry pattern. -Schaaf

.AVIATION...For the 25/00Z TAFs...VFR will prevail through the TAF
period for most areas. The exception is along the coast north of
Cape Blanco and the Umpqua Basin where patchy areas of MVFR/IFR are
possible late tonight into Wednesday morning. Any lower conditions
that do develop will improve Wednesday morning. /BR-y

&&

.MARINE...Updated 740 PM PDT Wednesday 24 July 2019...A strong
thermal trough will persist along the coast through Thursday night,
resulting in moderate to strong north winds and steep to very steep
seas. Gales and very steep hazardous seas are expected through
Thursday night for the waters south of Gold Beach, with small craft
advisory level winds and seas expected elsewhere.

The thermal trough gradually weakens Friday into Saturday.
Conditions will improve north of Cape Blanco by late Friday morning
but are expected to remain hazardous to small craft south of Cape
Blanco through at least Friday night. The thermal trough will
strengthen again Sunday into Monday, with gales possible again south
of Cape Blanco by Sunday afternoon. /BR-y

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...None.

CA...None.

Pacific Coastal Waters...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT Friday for
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     Gale Warning until 5 AM PDT Friday for PZZ356-376.

SBN/SBN/SBN