An unusually cold air mass moved in on the 4th, and this brought sub-freezing temperature to parts of the coast on the morning of the 6th.
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The episode as NWS MFR wrote it up.
An unusually cold air mass moved in on the 4th, and this brought sub-freezing temperature to parts of the coast on the morning of the 6th.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Medford, OR wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 5, 9:07 PM PST, 2 hours 53 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
907 PM PST Tue Feb 5 2019
.Updated aviation and marine discussions.
.DISCUSSION...We've made some updates tonight based on observations
and latest model data. We've lowered snow levels to around 1300
feet over interior West Side valleys, so we expect some snow
showers to move through tonight with brief accumulations. Given
the northwest flow, Ashland and Siskiyou Summit could see a quick
half inch of snow (inch maybe at Siskiyou Summit). Other areas
will see dustings to maybe a half inch overnight. Interestingly,
radar is quite active right now in the Rogue Valley but not much
is being observed right now at the airport, so we expect most of
the impacts to be felt at the higher elevations surrounding the
valley. Of note are areas that see some light rain/snow mix
tonight...this will likely freeze overnight and could create some
slippery spots on the roadways.
Please see the previous forecast discussion for more details on the
continuing cold, active weather pattern and the multiple systems
this weekend and next week that will bring more chances for low
elevation snowfall.
&&
.AVIATION...For the 06/00Z TAFs...A mix of VFR/MVFR conditions
will prevail, with the lower conditions occurring in any remaining
showers. Expect terrain obscuration to continue through tonight, but
showers will gradually diminish by early Wednesday morning. Areas
of MVFR cigs and isolated IFR cigs/vsbys will return to the west
side valleys tonight, persisting into Wednesday morning. Otherwise,
VFR conditions will prevail over the area.
&&
.MARINE...Updated 800 PM PST Tuesday 5 February 2019...A break in
the weather is expected Wednesday as high pressure builds over the
waters tonight. Steep west swell will subside by Wednesday evening,
and seas will remain below 10 feet through the end of the week. Low
pressure approaches from the northwest Thursday, bringing the return
of showers and gusty southerly winds Thursday night into Friday.
Winds will remain below advisory criteria and turn easterly then
northerly as the low moves into northern California Friday. A
stronger, colder low will move in from the north Saturday, bringing
unsettled conditions to the area through the weekend. /BR-y
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 252 PM PST Tue Feb 5 2019/
SHORT TERM...Tonight through Friday night...Cold temperatures are
the main concern tonight. Conditions will be similar to what they
were last night, so have issued a freeze warning for the coast,
including Coos Bay, Port Orford, Cape Blanco, Gold Beach, and
Brookings. Temperatures will be in the 20s to low 30s (below
freezing) for many of the west side valleys in southern Oregon and
northern California.
Temperatures along and east of the Cascades, however, will be
considerably colder. Many places will see temperatures in the
teens with our usual colder spots dropping into the single digits.
We received a report of -7 degrees Fahrenheit in the Christmas
Valley in Lake County today, and believe it will be similar again
tonight. Wind chills will approach -20 degrees Fahrenheit, but
will not quite reach it except for isolated spots. Therefore, have
decided to not issue any wind chill headlines at this time. Of
course, the cold forecast temperatures are contingent on the
clouds clearing, which they should later tonight.
A ridge is briefly building in behind the low that has evacuated
the area to the south and east. This will bring some brief drying,
with a slight inversion trying to form. Overall, temperatures will
be slow to rebound, and conditions tomorrow and tomorrow night
will be similar, if not a few degrees warmer than today and
tonight.
Then, the first of a series of low pressure systems and fronts
will approach the area on Thursday and Friday. This low continues
to track offshore, meaning that some shower activity will be
possible. The showers will be rather light in nature, and snow
levels will be around 2000 feet or so. Overall, snow impacts with
this first system should be minimal, but a heavier shower could
make some of the lower passes accumulate snow. This system could
help lower snow levels ahead of the next system coming in Friday
night into the long term forecast, which is well-detailed and
included below. -Schaaf
LONG TERM...Saturday through Tuesday Night...In a series of events
very similar to those of earlier this week, a strong upper level low
is forecast to dig south along the coast of the Pacific Northwest
Saturday into Sunday. Once again, the exact track and timing of the
low and its associated surface front will make the difference as to
how far down snow levels will drop and when. One big difference is
that this weekend system will arrive with cold air already in place
over the region , unlike earlier this week when the front arrived
with a relatively warm air mass in place, and snow levels had to
make a significant drop in order to reach low elevations. In this
event, snow above 2000 feet is nearly guaranteed, but lower
elevation snow, as usual, remains quite uncertain.
Current thinking is that snow levels of around 1500-2000 feet
Saturday could quickly drop to 500-1000 feet Saturday night into
Sunday. The bulk of the precipitation should fall before that drop,
but light to moderate showers are likely to continue into Sunday as
the upper level low passes overhead or very nearby, and this will be
the best chance for snow at the valley floors and along the
immediate coast. Showers may carry over into Sunday night and
Monday, and with snow levels remaining quite low, there will be a
chance for accumulations by Monday morning, although by that time,
amounts should be light. At this time range, confidence is low in
any details, but the general pattern is there in nearly every
operational run and the vast majority of ensemble members. Expect
changes and updates to the forecast over the next several days as
confidence increases with further model runs.
Model solutions diverge significantly through the rest of the
extended term, with the models having a difficult time handling the
flow downstream from a large cut-off low that is expected to develop
just north of Hawaii. Most solutions depict showers continuing
through Tuesday, but the exact nature of the systems could range
from weak ridging with warmer onshore flow to deep troughing and
cold air. As a result, have kept a chance of showers in the
forecast, and nudged temperatures just slightly cooler than normal
for the rest of the forecast term. -BPN
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM PST Wednesday for
ORZ021-022.
CA...None.
Pacific Coastal Waters...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas
until 4 PM PST Wednesday for PZZ350-356-370-376.The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 frost/freeze. Local standard time, as filed.
Reported low temperatures ranged from 29 to 36 degrees.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Oregon in 2019Every state in 2019This day in weather historyWarnings in Oregon, February 2019
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 795802.