A cold system brought snow to many locations in southwest and south central Oregon, down to unusually low elevations.
Every event with a place to put it; 1 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS MFR wrote it up.
A cold system brought snow to many locations in southwest and south central Oregon, down to unusually low elevations.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Medford, OR wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 3, 4:23 PM PST, 3 hours 7 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
423 PM PST Sun Feb 3 2019
The Aviation section has been updated...
.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Tuesday...The most important thing
regarding this forecast is making sure to take the correct
precautions tomorrow when traveling.
*Travel is strongly discouraged during a winter storm because
conditions could become dangerous.
*If you must travel tomorrow, especially over the passes, be sure
to take an emergency supply kit containing food, water,
medications, blankets, flashlight with batteries, and a fully
charged phone with phone charger with you.
*Check road conditions before you go. Check www.tripcheck.com for
Oregon road conditions and http://quickmap.dot.ca.gov for California
road conditions. You can also check traffic web cameras at
http://oss.weathershare.org/
Current observations for the Pacific Northwest are showing snow down
to sea level up near Seattle, Washington with high snow levels
closer to home in southern Oregon and northern California. This
range of snow levels is due to an arctic front attached to a low
pressure system which is poised to move through our forecast area
tonight into tomorrow morning. This will bring periods of moderate
rain to the coast, but more importantly rapidly falling snow levels
to the valley floors tonight. Confidence is increasing that some of
our west side valleys will see at least a little bit of snow
overnight or early Monday morning. Areas along and east of the
Cascades will see advisory level snows for the most part with this
system.
The main points where our forecast could go awry is in the timing of
this system. The parent low pressure system--the one in which the
front is attached--has trended a bit closer to the coast and inland
of the Pacific northwest. This could decrease amounts of total
precipitation since it will not be over the Pacific Ocean as long
in order to pick up extra moisture, but it could cause snow
levels to fall a few hours earlier than previously forecast.
Regardless, we are still expecting some impactful snow for the
early morning commutes across most of our area.
The main tweaks to the forecast with this package is that we
increased snowfall amounts near North Bend due to the moderate to
heavy rain forcing snow levels down a bit earlier. Have increased
snowfall amounts in the Illinois Valley to be a little bit better
in line with the ensemble guidance, decreased snow amounts in the
Rogue Valley due to some slight downsloping effects keeping
precipitation from reaching the ground (although downsloping
should be somewhat minimized due to the dynamics of this system).
Have decreased amounts near the Mt. Shasta City area and the
Shasta Valley due to overall less precipitation, but did not
decrease it enough to preclude the winter storm warning. Have also
increased snow amounts over the Warner Mountains, including for
Cedar Pass in Modoc County. Despite all these tweaks to the
forecast, the general pattern remains the same. Please see the
Winter Storm Warnings and Winter Weather Advisories for more
details (WSWMFR).
Things turn showery after the commute on Monday, but snow levels
will remain near 500 feet. These showers could be light to
moderate through the afternoon and will become lighter and lighter
through the evening. A few showers could linger into Tuesday, but
any additional accumulations are not expected to be impactful.
The main concern after Monday afternoon is any clearing of skies.
This could cause snow to melt, become slushy allowing for roads to
become wet. Temperatures will plummet into the tends east of the
Cascades, the 20s west of the Cascades and near freezing or at
freezing along the coast Monday night. This will allow for roads
to refreeze and become icy overnight. Please be prepared for ice
on roads, and take it slow when traveling.
.LONG TERM...Tue evening, Feb 5th through Sun night, Feb 10th...
This period will begin with the western portion of a long wave
trough of low pressure over the forecast area, with air mass origins
from the Yukon Territory of northwestern Canada. The air mass that
will be over us Tuesday evening will have modified into a Maritime
Polar air mass due to having gone out over the NE Pacific Ocean, but
will transition to a Continental Polar air mass as the flow shifts
to a more overland trajectory. How cold we get Tuesday night into
Wednesday morning will depend on how much snow is on the ground and
how much clearing we get. Right now we're only expecting partial
clearing, but still should see freezing conditions to near the
beaches, mostly 20s, but some teen on the west side, and 5 to 15
degree lows from the Cascades and Siskiyous eastward. This puts lows
Wednesday morning 8 to 15 degrees below normal.
We then expect brief high pressure ridging to build in for Wednesday
into Thursday before the next weather system arrives. Temperatures
will remain 8 to 15 degrees below normal for highs, with 40s along
the coast, 30s and 40s west of the Cascades, and 20s to low 30s for
daytime highs Wednesday and Thursday.
Thursday through next weekend we're expecting the longwave trough
with Arctic origins to redevelop across the Pacific Northwest, which
is likely to bring back the lower elevation snowfall threat and
provide additional snowpack to the mountains and east side. Thursday
night into Friday the next frontal system is expected to move
definitively into the forecast area with snow levels beginning in
the 2000-3000 foot range falling to near 1500 feet. Southeast flow
ahead of the frontal system is likely to slow precipitation moving
into the Rogue Valley, but there is certainly a threat of snow
accumulating once it does arrive.
Friday night into Saturday another shortwave trough is expected to
move in with colder air, resulting in showers with snow levels in
the 700 to 1500 foot range. Comparing the air mass to a local study
that was done here, snow levels were adjusted downward for that time
period. All in all, while temperatures are likely to be above
freezing for daytime highs for areas below 2kft Saturday, the air
mass is cold enough to support the precipitation reaching the
surface as all snow Saturday afternoon down to 1500-2000 feet MSL.
Models are still wavering on timing and strength details related to
this time period.
For Sunday into early next week both the GFS and the ECMWF are
suggesting the potential for an even colder, wetter/whiter weather
system for our forecast area. Therefore, stay tuned for further
details on each of these upcoming weather systems.
In the meantime, now is the time to make preparations for a
prolonged period of colder than normal weather and low elevation
snow if you have not already done so. BTL
&&
.AVIATION...For the 04/00Z TAFs...
A frontal system pushing across the Cascades this afternoon and
evening will be followed by a secondary cold front with polar
origins tonight into Monday morning lowering snow levels to or very
close to all of the primary airfields. A mix of MVFR and VFR
conditions this evening, lowest along and near the front, will lower
overnight into Monday morning to mostly IFR and LIFR in rain and
snow. Expect the lowest conditions to be Monday morning between 12Z
and 18Z, especially along and near the Cascades as KMFR and KLMT. A
mix of IFR, MVFR, and VFR is then expected Monday afternoon as
precipitation becomes more showery. BTL
&&
.MARINE...Updated 200 PM PST Sunday 3 February 2019...High
pressure will arrive for a short time into early this evening,
with relatively calm conditions expected. A strong cold front will
move into the waters tonight. The coldest air mass so far this
season will move over the waters Monday with 500mb temperatures
between -32 and - 35 C expected, so isolated thunderstorms are
possible Monday into Monday night. Also, areas along the coast
could see rain transition to snow in heavier showers Monday, and
some snow is even possible offshore.
Meanwhile, building west swell will produce steep seas Monday
morning through at least Wednesday morning, with seas peaking Monday
afternoon into Monday night. Conditions are expected to improve by
mid week. Next weekend, there is some evidence of an increasing
longer period west to northwest swell, but this is still a ways out
the details on this could change, but something that will need to be
watched. -Petrucelli
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM PST Monday for ORZ029>031.
Winter Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 1 PM PST Monday above 500
feet in the for ORZ021-022.
Winter Storm Warning from 7 PM this evening to 7 PM PST Monday
above 1000 feet in the for ORZ022-024.
Winter Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 1 PM PST Monday below 1000
feet in the for ORZ024.
Winter Storm Warning from 10 PM this evening to 1 PM PST Monday
above 1500 feet in the for ORZ023.
Winter Storm Warning from 10 PM this evening to 1 PM PST Monday
above 1500 feet in the for ORZ026.
Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM PST Monday for ORZ027-028.
Winter Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 1 PM PST Monday below 1500
feet in the for ORZ023.
Winter Storm Warning from 10 PM this evening to 1 PM PST Monday
for ORZ025.
Winter Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 1 PM PST Monday below 1500
feet in the for ORZ026.
CA...Winter Storm Warning until 10 PM PST Monday for CAZ082-083.
Winter Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 PM PST
Monday below 2000 feet in the for CAZ080.
Winter Storm Warning until 10 PM PST Monday above 2000 feet in
the for CAZ080.
Winter Storm Warning from 10 PM this evening to 10 PM PST Monday
for CAZ081.
Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM PST Monday for CAZ084-085.
Winter Storm Warning until 10 PM PST Monday for CAZ085.
Pacific Coastal Waters...
Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas from 4 AM Monday to 4 PM
PST Wednesday for PZZ350-356-370-376.The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 heavy snow. Local standard time, as filed.
A member of the public reported 4.0 inches of snow at an elevation of 2270 feet, just off Westwood St. in Ashland.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Oregon in 2019Every state in 2019This day in weather historyWarnings in Oregon, February 2019
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 795415.