Hail and Damaging Wind in North Dakota, July 11 to 12, 2019

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1150 PM CDT Thu Jul 11 2019

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1148 PM CDT Thu Jul 11 2019

Updrafts are struggling to develop or maintain with strong CAP in
place and limited organized/large scale forcing over our CWA
(still further north with main shortwave). Cold front is still
approaching from the west and may help initiate isolated
activity, but with coverage already low (and failure for cold
pool driven MCS to develop) CAMs are struggling run-run to reflect
lack of any thunderstorm coverage locally. Elevated instability
in the 1500 J/KG based on sounding analysis and deep layer shear
is still in place across our northeast, so if an updraft were to
develop and hold together isolated hail/wind threat can't be ruled
out, but overall severe threat appears to be decreasing. Trended
PoPs down, but still may be running too high considering
radar/satellite trends upstream (we may stay dry tonight for most
locations).

UPDATE Issued at 643 PM CDT Thu Jul 11 2019

Minor adjustments to sky/wx otherwise forecast is still on track
for increasing thunderstorm chances/possible thunderstorm
cluster/MCS this evening (favored timing 2-4Z north 4-7Z central
valley), with weakening trend as it shift east-southeast. Still
low consensus on any initiation further southwest with strong
CINh still in place. Activity already initiating over Manitoba
with organized cells drifting east-southeast. This lines up with
timing of most CAMs.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 316 PM CDT Thu Jul 11 2019

Main question of the day will be timing and coverage of convection
mainly across the north and its evolution. An upcoming mesoscale
discussion will provide a more in depth look at the event for the
evening into the overnight. A quick glance of parameters and
surface features depicts a SFC low pressure centered over the
Manitoba lakes and a trailing cold front stretching to the SW
into NW ND. Bulk shear values tonight along with steep mid level
lapse rates and moderate instability will create the potential for
supercellular storm mode. CAMs continue to depict initiation in
the 00 to 02Z time frame along the international border with
expansion to the SE into the overnight. Main hazards will include
hail up to 2 inches and wind gusts to 75mph and even a possible
tornado or two.

Showers and storms will move out the MN lakes and trees area
before dawn with light north winds expected for Friday. Friday
afternoon temps will climb to around 80 with mostly sunny skies.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 316 PM CDT Thu Jul 11 2019

There are not any major threats to identify for the upcoming
extended forecast period, at least not at this point in time. Heat
indices may briefly approach 100 over the extreme SW forecast
area on Sun.

The main 500 mb pattern from Saturday into next week will remain
zonal flow along the US/Canadian border. Seasonably warm and humid
weather for the period, typical for mid July. In the westerly flow
aloft, there will be several 500 mb short waves and with this some
chances for thunderstorms as they move through. Due to various model
timing differences in these waves, using a model blend gives chances
for thunderstorms most days. A weak upper wave could bolster thunder
chances Sat night with perhaps another increased risk presenting the
middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1148 PM CDT Thu Jul 11 2019

VFR conditions should prevail through the TAF period with light
winds less than 10kt shifting to the north-northwest as a cold
front moves through the region. We still can't rule out a shower
or thunderstorm north of Highway 200 tonight, but confidence is
greatly diminished across most of the region. KTVF and KBJI have
best chance, but even then confidence in thunderstorms within
vicinity of the terminals is now too low to introduce VCTS
(limited mention to VCSH).

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

UPDATE...DJR
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...WJB
AVIATION...DJR

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
615 AM CDT Thu Jul 11 2019

MNZ002-003-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ028>030-038-039-049-052-053-
121215-
Norman-Clay-Mahnomen-South Clearwater-Hubbard-West Becker-
East Becker-Wilkin-West Otter Tail-East Otter Tail-Wadena-Grant-
Griggs-Steele-Traill-Barnes-Cass-Ransom-Sargent-Richland-
615 AM CDT Thu Jul 11 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern North
Dakota, west central and northwest Minnesota.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

Chances for off and on thunderstorms exist from Friday through
Wednesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

MNZ001-004>009-013>017-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-026-027-054-121215-
West Polk-Kittson-Roseau-Lake Of The Woods-West Marshall-
East Marshall-North Beltrami-Pennington-Red Lake-East Polk-
North Clearwater-South Beltrami-Towner-Cavalier-Pembina-Benson-
Ramsey-Eastern Walsh County-Eddy-Nelson-Grand Forks-
Western Walsh County-
615 AM CDT Thu Jul 11 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern North
Dakota and northwest Minnesota.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across northeast North
Dakota and northwest MInnesota this evening. The main hazards
will be large hail up to golf ball size and damaging wind gusts up
to 75 mph. A tornado or two is also possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

Chances for off and on thunderstorms exist from Friday through
Wednesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters may be needed this evening.