What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jun 8, 3:44 PM EST, 24 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Jun 8, 3:44 PM EST, 24 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
444 PM EDT Sat Jun 8 2019
.SYNOPSIS...
A low pressure system west of the region will continue to pump
moisture from the Gulf of Mexico over the southern Appalachians and
surrounding areas today through Monday. A cold front will arrive
from the northwest on Monday night, but likely stall over the region
on Tuesday, with abundant moisture returning through Wednesday.
Another cold front will finally push through the region late in the
week to bring in drier air from the west.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 440 pm: The strongest thunderstorms with the heaviest
rainfall rates continued to be along to just ahead of a band of
convection that was across the I-26 corridor, slowly marching
towards the northeast. Rainfall rates upwards of four to five
inches per hour have been noted over the past couple of hours,
likely causing at least minor flooding and decent stream rises.
Fortunately, the heaviest rainfall rates have been on the move
so far (even if slowly), greatly reducing the threat for
significant flooding. Given the high risk for flooding with the
deep moisture and moderate forcing in place, will be on the
lookout for continued threats for flooding, especially with any
stalled or training storms. The current Flood Watch (see FFAGSP)
over most of the region looks well placed as rounds of heavy
rainfall continue through the near term. There may also be a few
stronger storms over the I-77 corridor through early this
evening with moderate instability and downdraft potential
(DCAPE) in place.
Otherwise, coverage of heavy showers and storms increasing along the
I-40 corridor in the foothills and Piedmont, deteriorated antecedent
conditions developing in response to widespread 2-4 inch amounts
(with locally higher amounts up to 7") that have occurred since
Thursday night has lowered FFG values to only 1-2" in an hour, and
those rates will probably become common from late afternoon into the
evening.
As we progress into the overnight, the situation is expected to only
become more dire, as the low level flow backs and intensifies,
strongly increasing the upslope component into the Blue Ridge during
the evening, lasting through at least Sunday morning. Widespread
rainfall amounts of 4 to 6 inches are expected along the Blue Ridge
from this afternoon through Sunday, likely resulting in fairly
widespread flash flooding, some of which will be significant.
Landslides may also become an increasing concern in the complex
terrain. Meanwhile, with convection gradually becoming more
concentrated near the Blue Ridge late tonight into tomorrow (before
coverage increases again Sunday afternoon), lesser amounts are
expected across the remainder of the forecast area, but additional
amounts of 2 to 4 inches, with locally higher amounts are expected
across the remainder of the Watch area through the day tomorrow.
This could result in significant flash flooding in areas that have
already seen very heavy to excessive rainfall since Friday, and in
urban and other flood prone areas over which cells are able to train.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 250 PM EDT Saturday: Deep southerly flow remains over the area
Sunday night as the upper trough axis remains just to our west. The
very high PW values, weakly unstable air mass, and very deep warm
cloud layers will combine to keep the heavy rain and flood threat in
place. The coverage tapers off late Sunday night as the low level
flow turns more southwesterly as the trough begins to move and a
cold front approaches from the west. The trough and front move into
the area Monday then east Monday night. This will bring widespread
convection back across the area as it lines up with peak heating.
Overall heavy rain threat looks lower as the flow is more
southwesterly and warm cloud processes diminish. However, with
increased convective potential, isolated heavy rain and flooding
could still develop. The next shift will probably need to extend the
flood watch to Sunday night and possibly Monday. However, the
extension into Monday could be held until later.
The guidance agrees that precip should taper off Monday night as
drier high pressure builds in behind the cold front. The NAM and the
GFS keep Tuesday dry which will be much needed by then. However,
the 12Z ECMWF has come in with a stalling cold front. It does dry
out the area north of I-85 but keeps precip along and to the south
of this corridor. For now, it does show the lingering precip to be
light. Have gone with a blend for PoP which brings chance PoP back
along the I-85 corridor during the day.
Warm and muggy Sunday night and Monday with some cooling and drying
dew points behind the front Monday night and Tuesday.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 140 pm EDT Saturday: Starting at 00Z Wednesday with low
pressure over the Florida Panhandle and ready to move toward the
Carolinas Tuesday night into Wednesday. A trough is seen on the
500mb pattern Tuesday evening crossing the Plains States. The low
will spread rain northward over the Carolinas Wednesday morning and
then be picked up by the trough as the trough moves over western
portions of the Ohio Valley late Wednesday. Instability should be
limited to areas east of the mountains, particularly along and east
of the I-77 corridor on Thursday as the low pulls NE. Models show
CAPE values 200 to 700 over the NC piedmont on Thursday. Therefore,
some convection is expected on Thursday before the much drier air
wraps in from the SW with the trough and low moving NE and away from
our area by late Thursday. Expect much drier air on Friday and
Saturday.
Dry high pressure will be in control of our weather Friday and
Saturday. The next rain system will be approaching from the NW late
in the weekend but that is after the current forecast.
Max Temps are expected to be over 10 degrees below normal Wed, then
5 to 8 degrees below normal Thursday through Saturday. Min Temps
will be about 5 degrees below normal Tues night then 5 to 8 degrees
below into weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Convection will continue to increase in
coverage and intensity throughout the afternoon, and a categorical
mention of TSRA is warranted at all terminals, as early as 18Z at
KAND, and as late as 22-24Z at KHKY and KAVL. (All sites get a
tempo for at least a couple of hours before that.) Bursts of
torrential rainfall will be accompanied by IFR (or worse) visby, and
this is advertised at all sites except KHKY and KCLT, with those
sites getting MVFR visby only due to lingering timing uncertainty.
At least scattered convection will linger through the overnight
across the terminal forecast area, with more widespread activity
expected to eventually become concentrated near the Blue Ridge
toward daybreak. Otherwise, widespread IFR/LIFR cigs are expected to
begin redeveloping by around midnight and persist through the
morning, with only modest improvement expected during the latter
part of the period.
Outlook: Deep moisture will persist across the region through the
late weekend and into the early part of next week, with widespread
showers and thunderstorms, some with very heavy rainfall, and
associated restrictions. Long periods of MVFR to IFR are likely.
Improvement will be limited on Tuesday and Wednesday.
Confidence Table...
20-02Z 02-08Z 08-14Z 14-18Z
KCLT High 100% Med 73% Med 72% High 81%
KGSP High 100% High 85% Med 75% High 87%
KAVL High 83% Med 76% Med 78% High 85%
KHKY High 81% Med 78% Med 75% High 96%
KGMU High 94% Med 62% High 90% Med 79%
KAND High 98% Med 72% High 85% High 80%
The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:
www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Updated Flash Flood Guidance values for 6-hour periods are generally
running 1 to 3 inches, with a few locations 4+ within the Flash
Flood Watch area. These rates will be locally attainable given the
rain efficiency observed so far today well as the potential for
training rain bands in regions with deep (12+ kft) warm cloud
layers. The WPC Moderate risks of Excessive Rainfall for days 1 and
2 look very well placed.
Although antecedent conditions were quite dry leading up to this
event, flooding in urban areas developed very quickly yesterday as
local drainage systems were overwhelmed by the rainfall rates. This
will likely occur again this evening and again on Sunday within the
Watch area, while significant flash flooding of small streams is
possible this evening through Sunday, especially across the North
Carolina foothills and northern Piedmont.
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...Flash Flood Watch through Sunday evening for GAZ010-017-018-
026-028-029.
NC...Flash Flood Watch through Sunday evening for NCZ033-035>037-
049-050-053-056-057-059-062>065-068>072-082-501>510.
SC...Flash Flood Watch through Sunday evening for SCZ001>014-019.
&&
SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...JDL/RMM
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...DEO
AVIATION...JDL
HYDROLOGY...JDLHazardous weather outlook, Jun 8, 3:02 PM EST, 1 hour 6 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
402 PM EDT Sat Jun 8 2019
GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-049-050-053-056-057-059-
062>065-068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-092015-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Avery-Alexander-
Iredell-Davie-Yancey-Mitchell-Buncombe-Catawba-Rowan-
Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-Henderson-
Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union-
Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-
McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-Rutherford Mountains-
Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-Oconee Mountains-
Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-Greater Oconee-
Greater Pickens-Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-Cherokee-York-
Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Chester-Greenwood-
402 PM EDT Sat Jun 8 2019
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING...
This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, piedmont
North Carolina, western North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.
.DAY ONE...Tonight.
Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.
Flash Flood Watch.
In addition, some of the thunderstorms this evening will be strong
with very gusty winds and frequent lightning.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.
Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.
Flash Flood Watch.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
None.
NCZ048-051-052-058-092015-
Madison-Swain-Haywood-Graham-
402 PM EDT Sat Jun 8 2019
This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western North Carolina.
.DAY ONE...Tonight.
Several rounds of heavy rain producing showers and thunderstorms
will affect the region tonight. Local 1 to 2 inch per hour rainfall
rates will be possible in the heaviest downpours, and localized
flooding could result.
In addition, some of the thunderstorms this evening will be strong
with very gusty winds and frequent lightning.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.
The active, wet pattern will continue Sunday through mid-week.
Additional heavy rainfall and flooding will be possible each day.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotters are requested to forward any reports of large hail,
damaging winds, tornadoes, or flash flooding to our office.
In the hours before
Special weather statement, Jun 8, 1:01 PM EST, 3 hours 7 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
201 PM EDT Sat Jun 8 2019
GAZ028-029-SCZ001-002-004-005-010-011-081900-
Elbert GA-Hart GA-Pickens Mountains SC-Greater Pickens SC-
Greater Oconee SC-Anderson SC-Abbeville SC-Oconee Mountains SC-
201 PM EDT Sat Jun 8 2019
...A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH INTENSE LIGHTNING WILL IMPACT
ELBERT...HART...SOUTHWESTERN ANDERSON...WESTERN PICKENS...
SOUTHWESTERN ABBEVILLE AND OCONEE COUNTIES UNTIL 300 PM EDT...
At 159 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated the leading edge of a cluster
of thunderstorms with intense lightning along a line extending from 7
miles north of Walhalla to 5 miles northeast of Hartwell to 8 miles
north of Washington, and moving north at 30 mph.
Locations to be impacted include...
Clemson, Seneca, Elberton, Hartwell, Walhalla, Pendleton,
Westminster, Calhoun Falls, Reed Creek and Iva.
In addition to intense lightning, very heavy rainfall rates up to 2
inches per hour will be possible in these areas.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as
ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded
roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek
higher ground if threatened by flood waters.
Frequent lightning is occurring with these storms. If outdoors, try
to get indoors or into a hard topped vehicle. Otherwise, stay away
from open areas and isolated high objects such as trees. When
indoors, stay away from windows and doors and avoid using wired
electronic devices. Do not take a shower or bath. Try to unplug
unnecessary appliances before the storms approach.
Lakes Hartwell, Jocassee, and Keowee are in the path of these storms.
Cloud to ground lightning and gusty winds will create dangerous
boating conditions. Move to shore immediately.
&&
LAT...LON 3398 8286 3409 8302 3417 8310 3423 8308
3426 8311 3441 8310 3450 8305 3461 8316
3461 8323 3470 8335 3482 8331 3482 8327
3488 8324 3493 8316 3494 8311 3500 8310
3506 8289 3404 8257 3398 8261 3397 8263
TIME...MOT...LOC 1759Z 182DEG 25KT 3489 8306 3442 8288 3386 8279
RWHSpecial weather statement, Jun 8, 1:55 PM EST, 2 hours 13 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
255 PM EDT Sat Jun 8 2019
GAZ029-SCZ001>006-010>012-019-082000-
Elbert GA-Pickens Mountains SC-Greater Pickens SC-Greater Oconee SC-
Laurens SC-Anderson SC-Abbeville SC-Greenwood SC-Oconee Mountains SC-
Greenville Mountains SC-Greater Greenville SC-
255 PM EDT Sat Jun 8 2019
...A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH INTENSE LIGHTNING WILL IMPACT
EASTERN ELBERT...LAURENS...GREENVILLE...ANDERSON...PICKENS...
ABBEVILLE...NORTHEASTERN OCONEE AND GREENWOOD COUNTIES UNTIL 400 PM
EDT...
At 255 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated the leading edge of a cluster
of thunderstorms with intense lightning along a line extending from
15 miles northwest of Pickens to near Easley to 6 miles east of
Greenwood, and moving northeast at 20 mph.
Locations to be impacted include...
Greenville Downtown, Anderson, Greenwood, Easley, Clemson, Laurens,
Abbeville, Pickens, Greenville Eastside and West Greenville.
In addition to intense lightning, very heavy rainfall rates up to 2
inches per hour will be possible in these areas.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as
ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded
roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek
higher ground if threatened by flood waters.
Frequent lightning is occurring with these storms. If outdoors, try
to get indoors or into a hard topped vehicle. Otherwise, stay away
from open areas and isolated high objects such as trees. When
indoors, stay away from windows and doors and avoid using wired
electronic devices. Do not take a shower or bath. Try to unplug
unnecessary appliances before the storms approach.
&&
LAT...LON 3398 8273 3466 8289 3493 8315 3500 8310
3507 8275 3521 8239 3509 8222 3485 8223
3470 8207 3460 8185 3444 8173 3430 8190
3416 8191 3403 8232 3404 8232 3408 8248
3401 8260 3396 8257
TIME...MOT...LOC 1855Z 216DEG 18KT 3505 8289 3481 8261 3418 8204
RWHSpecial weather statement, Jun 8, 2:55 PM EST, 1 hour 13 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
355 PM EDT Sat Jun 8 2019
NCZ064-065-507-509-510-SCZ003-006>008-012-082045-
Transylvania NC-Henderson NC-Polk Mountains NC-
Rutherford Mountains NC-Eastern Polk NC-Cherokee SC-Laurens SC-
Greenville Mountains SC-Spartanburg SC-Greater Greenville SC-
355 PM EDT Sat Jun 8 2019
...A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT EAST CENTRAL
TRANSYLVANIA...HENDERSON...POLK...NORTHWESTERN LAURENS...NORTHEASTERN
GREENVILLE...SPARTANBURG AND WEST CENTRAL CHEROKEE COUNTIES UNTIL 445
PM EDT...
At 354 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated the leading edge of a cluster
of thunderstorms along a line extending from 12 miles south of
Hendersonville to 15 miles north of Laurens, and moving east at 25
mph.
Locations to be impacted include...
Spartanburg, Hendersonville, Columbus, Greer, Taylors, Five Forks,
Boiling Springs SC, Duncan, Flat Rock and Lyman.
Torrential rainfall rates up to 3 inches per hour will be possible
over these areas.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as
ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded
roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek
higher ground if threatened by flood waters.
&&
LAT...LON 3519 8265 3547 8242 3546 8237 3548 8237
3549 8236 3549 8235 3550 8233 3522 8197
3519 8197 3519 8192 3500 8168 3470 8216
TIME...MOT...LOC 1954Z 258DEG 20KT 3515 8252 3472 8209
JPTSpecial weather statement, Jun 8, 2:59 PM EST, 1 hour 9 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
359 PM EDT Sat Jun 8 2019
SCZ007-012-013-082045-
Laurens SC-Union SC-Spartanburg SC-
359 PM EDT Sat Jun 8 2019
...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT LAURENS...SOUTHEASTERN
SPARTANBURG AND SOUTHWESTERN UNION COUNTIES UNTIL 445 PM EDT...
At 358 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles east of Laurens, or near Clinton, moving northeast at 20 mph.
Locations to be impacted include...
Laurens, Clinton, Joanna, Cross Hill, Waterloo, Rose Hill State Park,
Lake Greenwood, Mountville, Kinards and Enoree.
Torrential rainfall rates up to 3 inches per hour will be possible in
these areas.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as
ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded
roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek
higher ground if threatened by flood waters.
&&
LAT...LON 3435 8217 3436 8218 3477 8189 3458 8157
3452 8163 3453 8165 3452 8165 3446 8170
3444 8173 3437 8178 3435 8181 3435 8183
3432 8186 3430 8190 3424 8191 3422 8193
TIME...MOT...LOC 1958Z 214DEG 16KT 3447 8190
JPTSpecial weather statement, Jun 8, 3:46 PM EST, 22 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
446 PM EDT Sat Jun 8 2019
NCZ049-053-065-068-504>510-SCZ007-008-082130-
Buncombe NC-Cleveland NC-Greater Burke NC-Rutherford Mountains NC-
Eastern McDowell NC-Eastern Polk NC-Greater Rutherford NC-
McDowell Mountains NC-Yancey NC-Henderson NC-Polk Mountains NC-
Cherokee SC-Spartanburg SC-
446 PM EDT Sat Jun 8 2019
...A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT MCDOWELL...RUTHERFORD...
NORTHEASTERN HENDERSON...POLK...EASTERN BUNCOMBE...WESTERN
CLEVELAND...SOUTHEASTERN YANCEY...SOUTHWESTERN BURKE...NORTHEASTERN
SPARTANBURG AND NORTHWESTERN CHEROKEE COUNTIES UNTIL 530 PM EDT...
At 446 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated the leading edge of a cluster
of thunderstorms along a line extending from 12 miles southeast of
Downtown Asheville to 9 miles northwest of Gaffney, and moving north
at 30 mph.
Locations to be impacted include...
Forest City, Marion, Rutherfordton, Burnsville, Columbus, Black
Mountain, Swannanoa, Spindale, Boiling Springs NC and Fairview In
Buncombe County.
Pea size hail and torrential rainfall rates up to 3 inches per hour
will be possible in these areas.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as
ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded
roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek
higher ground if threatened by flood waters.
&&
LAT...LON 3589 8215 3582 8214 3582 8212 3585 8209
3543 8149 3496 8184 3539 8248 3598 8228
TIME...MOT...LOC 2046Z 199DEG 28KT 3552 8234 3513 8180
JPTSpecial weather statement, Jun 8, 3:49 PM EST, 19 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
449 PM EDT Sat Jun 8 2019
SCZ007-008-012-013-082130-
Cherokee SC-Laurens SC-Union SC-Spartanburg SC-
449 PM EDT Sat Jun 8 2019
...A THUNDERSTORM WITH TORRENTIAL RAINFALL WILL IMPACT NORTH CENTRAL
LAURENS...CENTRAL SPARTANBURG...SOUTHWESTERN CHEROKEE AND
NORTHWESTERN UNION COUNTIES UNTIL 530 PM EDT...
At 449 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a thunderstorm with
torrential rainfall 14 miles west of Union, or 9 miles southeast of
Woodruff, moving north at 30 mph.
Locations to be impacted include...
Spartanburg, Pacolet, Roebuck, Jonesville, Pacolet Mills, Croft State
Park, Moore, USC Upstate, Cedar Springs and Boiling Springs SC.
Pea size hail and torrential rainfall rates up to 3 inches per hour
will be possible in these areas.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as
ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded
roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek
higher ground if threatened by flood waters.
&&
LAT...LON 3459 8178 3462 8202 3506 8200 3495 8184
3504 8176 3500 8160
TIME...MOT...LOC 2049Z 186DEG 26KT 3468 8188
JPT