Rip Current in California, June 8, 2019

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area
1025 AM PDT Sat Jun 8 2019

.SYNOPSIS...A significant warming trend is forecast this weekend,
resulting in increased fire weather and heat concerns. Warm
temperatures today will trend hot by Sunday and Monday, with hot
temperatures extending all the way to the coast under an offshore
wind pattern. Cooling may return to the Central Coast by Monday
afternoon while inland areas wont begin to cool until Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...as of 8:26 AM PDT Saturday...No significant
forecast updates planned this morning. Forecast is on track with
clear skies across the region other than some wispy high clouds.
Gusty offshore winds are blowing in the hills with a gust to 71
mph last hour on Mt Tamalpais in Marin county. This is all in
response to strong offshore surface pressure gradients. Currently
we have an 8 mb northerly gradient which has produced windy
conditions over the ocean. So much so that upwelling has allowed
sea surface temps to drop to 49 degrees along the Sonoma Coast.
The favorable offshore wind pattern will allow temps to rapidly
warm this morning with no marine inversion in place. Expect
widespread readings into the 80s and lower 90s for this afternoon.

After a warm and dry afternoon another surge of offshore winds
will spread across the North Bay tonight, thus the Red Flag
Warning will stay in place.

Even hotter temperatures are forecast Sunday as the airmass aloft
continues to warm and offshore winds continue. Heat Advisory is
already in effect for the Bay Area valleys to account for record
or near record heat in the 90s and lower 100s. This will be the
first hot weather weekend for the Bay Area so impacts could be
significant, especially to vulnerable populations and those with
outdoor plans. If vising the coast, realize the cold ocean temps
pose risks of their own as well.

Will look at extending the heat advisory into Monday but will have
to look at what type of coastal cooling occurs for SF and around
the Bay.

The 06z and 12z nam show a well defined southerly surge coming up
the coast as early as Monday. The stratus thats currently in SoCal
will round Pt Conception and make a run for Big Sur and Monterey
Bay as early as Monday with coastal cooling. This will be in
response to thermally induced low pressure off our coastline. It
should be a beautiful satellite image as a narrow finger of fog
works up the coast on Monday. This will bring drastic cooling to
Santa Cruz but inland areas will remain very hot on Monday with
lots of 90s and lower 100s.

Inland cooling begins Tuesday with a return to seasonable weather
from midweek and beyond.

&&

.AVIATION...As of 10:25 AM PDT Saturday...For 18z tafs. VFR
conditions through the period with mainly clear skies. Breezy
northerly winds will continue into this afternoon before winds
become more westerly with gusts to around 20 kt possible. Winds
will diminish overnight before northeast winds return by tomorrow
morning.

Vicinity of KSFO...VFR. Northerly winds into the afternoon before
winds become more onshore. Gusts to around 20 kt possible this
afternoon before winds diminish tonight.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to KSFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR with mainly clear skies and generally light
winds.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...As of 8:26 AM PDT Saturday...Red Flag Warning for
the North Bay hills stays in place today through Sunday. Latest
obs show gusts 50-70 mph above 2000 feet. Winds will ease today
but increase again tonight after a warm and dry Saturday. Next
critical period will be tonight into early Sunday morning.
Continued hot and dry Sunday as offshore winds ease. Hot weather
continues inland on Monday with lighter winds while a southerly
wind reversal and associated cooling reach the coast by Monday
afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...as of 08:03 AM PDT Saturday...Strong high pressure over
the eastern Pacific and a thermal trough over inland California
will maintain elevated northerly winds across the coastal waters
through tonight. As the thermal trough shifts closer to the coast
tomorrow, winds will diminish. Winds will then remain generally
light into early next week.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .Tday...Red Flag Warning...CAZ507
             SCA...Mry Bay
             SCA...Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm
             SCA...Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm
             SCA...Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm
             SCA...Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm
             SCA...Pt Arena to Pigeon Pt 10-60 nm
             SCA...Pigeon Pt to Pt Piedras Blancas 10-60 nm

&&

PUBLIC FORECAST: RWW
AVIATION: AS
MARINE: AS
FIRE WEATHER: RWW

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