An unusual long-duration event occurred June 7-11 as a very slow-moving upper trough and surface high across New England combined to produce several days of cool-air damming and persistent rainfall along the frontal boundary and in orographically favored areas of the Blue Ridge with the heaviest rainfall focused over eastern Watauga and Ashe and western Wilkes counties where rain gauges showed 2…
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS RNK wrote it up.
An unusual long-duration event occurred June 7-11 as a very slow-moving upper trough and surface high across New England combined to produce several days of cool-air damming and persistent rainfall along the frontal boundary and in orographically favored areas of the Blue Ridge with the heaviest rainfall focused over eastern Watauga and Ashe and western Wilkes counties where rain gauges showed 2 to 3 inches in the 24-hour period ending at 0800 EDT on June 8th. The rain continued much of the 8th even heavier amounts with an additional 4 to 8 inches across parts of the area and another 2 to 3 inches ending 0700 on the 10th. Numerous official sites set daily rainfall records on both June 8 and June 9. Four-day totals by the morning of the 10th ranged from 5 to 15 inches, with isolated amounts at unofficial sites approaching 20 inches. The tremendous inflow from various tributaries in the upper Yadkin basin pushed the pool elevation at W. Kerr Scott Reservoir (WLKN7) to its highest level since the dam was completed in 1962, reaching 1062.61 feet on June 10th, eclipsing the previous record of 1061.20 feet in November, 1977.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Blacksburg, VA wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jun 8, 6:02 AM EST, 58 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 702 AM EDT Sat Jun 8 2019 .SYNOPSIS... A weak stationary front will remain stalled just south of the region today and tonight. This front, in addition to an area of low pressure in the upper levels of the atmosphere over the Mid Mississippi Valley will be the focus for unsettled weather through the weekend. Another stronger cold front will arrive from the west for early next week bringing another round of widespread showers and storms. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 300 AM EDT Saturday... Wedge continues to entrench across the region this morning with a band of heavier showers over the southwest closer to the upper low and more sporadic lighter rainfall east with lift across the cool pool. Latest short term models gradually shift showers to the south up along the Blue Ridge through the morning although upslope limited a bit by more northeast flow attm. Thus will keep the going watch in place where ongoing and not expand east for now where rainfall has been lighter. Upper wave lifts north through the region this afternoon with most guidance depicting a lull as the wedge deepens and lift weakens. This supports a decrease in pops after midday with rates and coverage becoming lighter as we slide in between bands. Therefore have shunted higher pops south this afternoon with more chance coverage northwest and categorical/likelys remaining over the south. Otherwise another cloudy/wet day with little change in temps with highs only in the 60s to lower 70s. Models show another stronger band that develops within instability to the south sliding back toward the area this evening as the upper low lifts by to the west. However with the wedge in place, uncertainty remains to how far north heavier rainfall coverage will make it as the latest Nam doesnt show much rainfall north of the VA/NC border until very late tonight. Does appear that better southeast upslope could keep rainfall going longer along the Blue Ridge but iffy given the strength of the progged Cad through morning. This may require an extension of the watch espcly over the south/southwest later today. Otherwise again lowered pops/QPF over the north/west while running with more widespread coverage for now over the south. Lows again on the cool side with readings overall in the muggy 60s. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Rainfall and potential for areal and/or flash flooding will continue to be a point of focus through Monday at least. A slow-evolving upper low over the TN Valley will deamplify and merge with the stronger northern branch of the jet over the northern tier of states late Sunday into Monday. Merger between these two features aloft will push what looks to be a pretty strong cold front (for summer standards) eastward Monday. Until its passage, a humid moisture- laden air mass with PWAT values between 1.5 and 2 inches will be in place Sunday into Monday. The front's expected passage Monday night into Tuesday should feature falling humidity levels, lower PWAT values and perhaps some brief breezy northwest wind conditions in the mountains. Low-level east to southeast upslope component to the flow Sunday and Monday will combine with greater, though still weak instability than recent days. The easterly/southeast flow will downslope into our far western/southeast WV counties with lower rain amounts more likely there Sunday. Model soundings show a number of favorable parameters for heavy rainfall/localized downpours, including rich moisture through a deep depth of atmosphere, warm cloud depths between 11-12 kft and tall, skinny instability profiles. Given this potential, and the additive effect of the ground becoming increasingly more saturated offering a greater threat of flooding, I've included heavy rain wording in the zone forecast for both days. Will let prior day(s) trends bear things out before considering need for any hydro watches. WPC does have a large area of Slight with a Moderate risk for excessive rainfall for Sunday with a broad Slight area for Monday. Rainfall amounts range from 2-3 inches, additional to that which had fallen previously in the Blue Ridge and foothills areas, with three quarters to an inch for southeast WV and into Tazewell County - much of that occuring with Monday FROPA. Though a bit more instability each day, severe potential both Sunday or Monday looks low-predictability/pulse-like and frankly not overly impressive with weak shear profiles (under 20 kts), limited downdraft CAPE values given the deep moisture and poor lapse rates. Have to watch for trees to come down at less-than-severe wind speeds as the ground becomes increasingly more saturated, though. Front progresses eastward especially Monday night and into the overnight hours. Surface ridging with some seasonably robust pressure rises post frontal supports boosting northwest winds as much as 30 mph in the mountains. Model guidance differs on just how quickly the front exits, which leads to diminishing but still chance- level PoP from a line from Lynchburg to Boone southeastward, with dry to slight chance PoPs north/west of that line. Runoff from previous days rainfall would begin to get into the larger main-stem rivers either Monday or Tuesday. So while the tail end of the short term period turns somewhat less quiet, hydro focus should shift to the rivers versus areal/flash flooding - pending rainfall totals. Look for highs on the cooler side of guidance and milder lows for Sunday/Monday. Bit more of a diurnal range for Tuesday with highs in the 70s in the post-frontal air mass. Forecast confidence is high on the wet rainfall pattern, though low to moderate on where heavy rainfall and flooding potential sets up. Confidence in rainfall amounts is moderate, with potentially greater amounts than forecast in persistent bands. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 115 PM EDT Friday... Some notable changes have occurred in the models regarding this portion of the forecast. The latest GFS has leaned closer to the ECMWF solution with being more progressive by having the cold front passing offshore Tuesday night. Any showers and thunderstorms over the Mid Atlantic should end by the evening and allow a brief reprieve for Tuesday night. However, the aforementioned closed low will be shunted southward toward Florida, which means the upper level trough in association with the cold front will fail to capture it as previously portrayed in some model solutions. Consequently, it will take a second and more potent upper level trough following behind the first one to capture this closed low. In response to this approaching second upper level trough, the closed low will move northeastward along the coast on Wednesday and provide yet another round of showers and thunderstorms for Wednesday afternoon through Thursday. High pressure should finally build overhead during Thursday night and Friday to end to this prolonged wet spell. Little appreciable change in temperatures seems likely && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 700 AM EDT Saturday... A frontal boundary across northern North Carolina will remain stalled out across the region into tonight. Multiple rounds of showers, along with fog development, are expected across the region with flight conditions remaining in the IFR/LIFR categories for much of the region during most of the valid TAF forecast period ending early Sunday. Currently, some pockets of MVFR still remain across the region, but these will be trending downhill at times today. The far southern sections of the area may experience some isolated thunderstorms today and tonight as an area of instability remains just to the south. Otherwise bands of heavier showers will shift north to along the Blue Ridge in Virginia this morning resulting in lowering vsbys espcly around KBCB/KROA/KLYH where IFR may occur. A strong low level easterly jet is forecast through today with surface winds remaining mostly in the 5 to 15 kt range. Additional bands of heavier showers may return espcly across southern sections tonight with rain or drizzle farther north into the wedge. This will keep low ceilings in place along with periods of sub-VFR vsbys through early Sunday. Forecast confidence in the above aviation scenario is moderate. Extended Aviation Discussion... The front/baroclinic zone will linger near or just south of the area, combined with a slow moving area of low pressure aloft through the TN Valley, and abundant moisture will result in an extended period of rain/showers/thunderstorms through Monday. Periods of fog/low clouds will also persist into early next week. && .HYDROLOGY... As of 645 AM EDT Saturday... Bands of heavier showers continue across the region this morning with the showers expected to head north out of North Carolina through mid morning. This may result in another 1 to 2 inches of rain with the heavier rates likely along the Blue Ridge, espcly north of the VA/NC border. Thus the going flash flood watch continues through midday before a lull in rainfall should occur. Models then diverge on added rainfall later today/tonight through Sunday with some keeping most rain to the south, while others bring deeper convection farther north into the southern Blue Ridge. If this occurs then added flooding problems may develop into tonight and Sunday as some guidance shows another 1-3+ inches of rain along parts of the Blue Ridge. Another cold front arrives on Monday with the potential for another round of showers and storms including higher rates as the cool wedge departs. Therefore additional watches may be needed over the weekend with any river flooding likely not occurring until early next week and mainly along the Dan River at this point. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...Flash Flood Watch until noon EDT today for VAZ015>017-032. NC...Flash Flood Watch until noon EDT today for NCZ001>004-018>020. WV...None. && SYNOPSIS...JH/KK NEAR TERM...JH SHORT TERM...AL LONG TERM...PW AVIATION...DS/JH HYDROLOGY...JH
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 407 AM EDT Sat Jun 8 2019 NCZ005-006-VAZ007-009>014-018>020-022>024-033>035-043>047-058-059- WVZ042>044-507-508-090815- Rockingham-Caswell-Tazewell-Smyth-Bland-Giles-Wythe-Pulaski- Montgomery-Craig-Alleghany VA-Bath-Roanoke-Botetourt-Rockbridge- Franklin-Bedford-Amherst-Henry-Pittsylvania-Campbell-Appomattox- Buckingham-Halifax-Charlotte-Mercer-Summers-Monroe- Eastern Greenbrier-Western Greenbrier- 407 AM EDT Sat Jun 8 2019 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central North Carolina, central Virginia, south central Virginia, southwest Virginia, west central Virginia and southeast West Virginia. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Showers will be rain efficient and slow moving especially through midday. This may result in flooding problems especially low lying and poor drainage areas. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday. The combination of a stalled frontal boundary and abundant moisture lingering across the area for several days will result in scattered to numerous rounds of showers and thunderstorms Sunday into the upcoming week. As a result, flooding will be the main weather hazard through the period. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. NCZ001>004-018>020-VAZ015>017-032-090815- Ashe-Alleghany NC-Surry-Stokes-Watauga-Wilkes-Yadkin-Grayson-Carroll- Floyd-Patrick- 407 AM EDT Sat Jun 8 2019 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central North Carolina, northwest North Carolina and southwest Virginia. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Flash Flood Watch. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday. The combination of a stalled frontal boundary and abundant moisture lingering across the area for several days will result in scattered to numerous rounds of showers and thunderstorms Sunday into the upcoming week. As a result, flooding will be the main weather hazard through the period. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation may be needed.
The Roanoke radar (KFCX), 124 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 11:57 UTC.
4 flood, 3 heavy rain, 1 debris flow, 1 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
The Jefferson 2 E COOP station (JEFN7) had 5.15 inches in the 24-hour period ending 700 AM EDT on June 9th, the highest ever for any day in June. The old record was 4.52 inches set in 2006. It was also the 9th highest daily rainfall on record. Nearly complete records date back to 1910 at this site.
The CoCoRaHS station at Boone 4.6 E (NC-WT-37) measured 9.05 inches for the 24 hours ending 700 AM EDT. The 3-day total ending at 700 AM on the 10th was 15.24 inches. This 3-day total is within the 90 percent confidence interval for a 500-year (.002 annual chance occurrence) rainfall event at this location per NOAA Atlas 14.
The Boone 1 SE COOP station (BOON7) had 4.60 inches in the 24-hour period ending 700 AM EDT on June 9th, the highest ever for a day in June. The old record was 2.81 inches set in 1992. Nearly complete records date back to 1980 at this site.
Heavy rain caused a mud slide on Elk Creek Road near Wes Randall Road. Several utility poles were knocked down by the slide.
Several mobile homes were evacuated along a small stream where it enters the South Prong of Lewis Fork Creek and near the confluence of the north and south prongs of Lewis Fork Creek.
The Watauga River flooded along much of its course from Shulls Mill to Sugar Grove with several low water bridges flooded and other roads near the river. Several people were rescued from a car stranded in flood waters from the Watauga River in the Shulls Mill area. Several buildings in the Valle Crucis area received some flooding. The Watauga River at Sugar Grove (SGWN7) crested at 15.40 feet, just short of Moderate Flood Stage (16 feet) on the afternoon of the 9th, the highest level since the May 2018 flood and 2nd highest since 2004. According to USGS data it was approximately a 5-year recurrence interval (0.20 annual chance flood). The IFLOWS stream gage upstream near Foscoe (FOSN7) crested at 11.48 feet (Minor Flood Stage - 9 ft.), which was the 2nd highest in the fairly brief history at this gage (since about 2010).
Elk Creek was reported flowing across NC Route 268 near Elk Creek Darby Road.|The USGS gage at Elk Creek (EKVN7) in the upper Yadkin River basin in western Wilkes County crested at 9.41 feet in the mid-morningat of the 9th with a discharge of 11,000 cfs in the 50.9 mi2 basin. This was the highest stage/discharge since August 1994 at this gage (12.02 ft.) and the 3rd highest on record (continuous data since 1966). According to the most recent (2009) North Carolina USGS flood frequency study the recurrence interval at this gage was slightly above a 10-year event (.10 annual chance flood), although regional regression equations suggested a more unusual event. The automated rain gage co-located at the site measured over 12 of rain in the 3-day period, and 11+ in 2 days. Significant flooding was reported across parts of western Wilkes County with the worst occurring in the Elk Creek, Upper Reddies and Lewis Fork watersheds according to news reports.
The South Fork New River near Jefferson (JFRN7) crested the afternoon of June 9th at 10.44 feet (11,600 cfs), the 7th highest level on record (nearly continuous data since 1925) and highest since September 2004 (remains of Hurricane Frances). This was also very close to the 10-year recurrence interval (0.10 annual chance flood). Several roads near the river were flooded and blocked.
There was significant flooding across parts of Watauga County with several roads closed. Substantial damage occurred to road and culvert infrastructure across parts of the county. Ar mudslide occurred on Route 421 near Mt. Zion Road.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in North Carolina in 2019Every state in 2019This day in weather historyWarnings in North Carolina, June 2019
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 837415, 837983, 837957, 841039, 837410, 837419, 837487, 837429, 837920.