Northwest winds in the wake of a strong cold front increased after sunrise and became damaging across the middle French Broad Valley and across the higher elevations of Rutherford and McDowell counties. Numerous trees and power lines were blown down in this area, with some minor structural damage also reported.
Every event with a place to put it; 4 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS GSP wrote it up.
Northwest winds in the wake of a strong cold front increased after sunrise and became damaging across the middle French Broad Valley and across the higher elevations of Rutherford and McDowell counties. Numerous trees and power lines were blown down in this area, with some minor structural damage also reported. The winds began to diminish during the afternoon.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jan 20, 6:24 AM EST, 1 hour 36 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
624 AM EST Sun Jan 20 2019
.SYNOPSIS...
A strong low pressure system will move along the New England coast
today as very cold high pressure builds across our area and the wind
gradually diminishes late today and tonight. The very cold
temperatures will last a couple of nights before milder weather
returns in advance of the next low pressure and cold front which
will arrive on Wednesday night and Thursday. Expecting very chilly
weather next weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 615 AM EST: The latest surface analysis shows the passing cold
front moving east of the I-77 corridor around daybreak. Temperatures
are plummeting across the NC mountains behind the front and KMRX
radar shows the leading edge of better snow shower activity poised
to move back into the western NC mountains over the next couple of
hours. Going forward, hazards will steadily ramp up to include:
wind, snow, black ice, and wind chill, as described below.
The biggest concern will be winds, with 850 mb flow increasing to 50
to 60 kt through the later morning hours, coincident with the
arrival of strong cold advection and improving mixing. The High Wind
Warning was earlier expanded very slightly to include the mountains
of Polk County and it was extended in time to run through tonight as
the pressure gradient east of the surface high over the OH Valley
will be slow to relax through the near term. The existing southern
NC mountain Wind Advisory was expanded to include the lower
elevations due to mixing and also expanded into the northeast GA and
the Upstate SC mountains. This section of Advisory will run until
06Z tonight. Finally, a new Wind Advisory is now featured across
foothill and northwest piedmont sections from roughly Greenville SC
to Davie County NC. These gusty winds will be shorter duration,
primarily impacting wet ground locations during the daytime deeper
mixing hours. Several locations east of the mountains could well see
gap winds at times, with gusts above 40 mph. All told, the Advisory
is being drawn slightly larger than the gusts support due to the
possibility for more trees down than usual given the wet ground.
The second issue to address is snowfall, and not much has changed
with regard to amounts. Expect 1 to 2 inches of snow throughout the
Tennessee border counties today due to moist northwesterly upslope
flow, with some 3 to 4 inches along the higher peaks - especially
around the Smokies. The Winter Weather Advisory now runs through 00Z
this evening and an SPS for black ice has also been posted in
mountain locations outside of the Advisory given the strong
potential for a flash freeze of moisture on roadways today. Expect
another SPS for tonight for frozen/black ice road conditions
throughout, even after the Winter Weather Advisory expires.
Finally, wind chills tonight appear to be a slam dunk for Advisory
conditions across the northern mountains and throughout the higher
ridges of the central and southern mountains. Expect values to run
generally minus 10 to minus 15 across the northern mountains along
with some ridge top values to minus 20. Have placed the Advisory
into the lower terrain as well across the southern/central mountains
since some warmer valleys could still maintain enough channeled
strong wind flow to push wind chill values to near minus 5 overnight.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 300 AM Sun: The Arctic high will migrate across the Great
Lakes and Ohio Valley Monday and Monday night. Breezy conditions
will continue early in the day, maintaining advisory-level wind
chills until late morning. While downsloping and sunshine will
offset the cold nature of the airmass to some degree, we still
expect max temps will top out more than 10 degrees below normal. The
high will center over the Eastern Seaboard by the wee hours Tue
morning, and winds will become very light if not calm over much of
our area. Under mostly clear skies, radiation is expected to be
very efficient, and so min temps Tuesday are based solely on MOS
sources, which are several degrees colder than we had previously
advertised. The southeast half of the CWFA thus should see colder
conditions Tue morning compared to Mon, but in the mountains temps
could be a tad warmer.
Cloud cover will increase late Tuesday as the high and parent
upper ridge set up east of the area, initiating return flow
and low-level upglide. The airmass will have moderated a bit by
early Wed, but still is shown to be approx 1035 mb off the East
Coast. As upglide continues ahead of an approaching frontal system,
we can't rule out in-situ CAD forming at least long enough to lock
in subfreezing temps in the northern mountains and NC Piedmont
near daybreak Wed. Applying the top-down technique to soundings
from the GFS and EC, assuming temps are sufficiently cold,
much of that area stands a small chance of seeing sleet mixing
with freezing rain, tending to favor the latter as WAA induces a
stronger warm nose aloft. It is possible the sfc conditions will
be dry enough to evaporate falling precip early on, which is why
chances have been kept a bit below the blended values typically
favored at this forecast range. I personally wouldn't change my
plans yet, as confidence is low, but this scenario could make for
a more difficult commute across much of WNC Wed morning. Expect all
precip to be rain by 9-10 AM and chances to steadily increase thru
the day with the front nearing, especially along the south-facing
mountain ridges. Max temps should be near to a little above climo.
The incoming airmass will be very dry, with dewpoints remaining
in the single digits until Tuesday morning, possibly even below
zero in some of the northern zones. Relative humidity will dip to
near the critical 25 percent threshold for fire weather. Following
the weekend rainfall, this may not be significant for Monday,
but with RH dipping almost as low Tuesday afternoon after fuels
have had a chance to dry, fire danger will be a bit more elevated.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 130 AM EST Sunday: Starting Wednesday with high
pressure located over the western Atlantic and a cold front located
from the Great Lakes to coastal Texas. At that time, 925mb wind will
be from the south at 20 to 30kts and some upslope flow continuing
during the day Wednesday. The models have backed off on the QPF
amounts a bit particularly with the more progressive movement of the
system from west to east limiting precip duration. The bulk of the
rainfall passes through Wednesday night on the GFS and Wednesday
night into Thursday on the slower ECMWF. Still have almost no
instability over our area in advance of the front and low pressures.
The GFS has all precip ending around mid day to early PM Thursday
and the EC delays it to about mid evening Thursday. As the cold
front moves off the East Coast, the 500mb pattern shows a broad
trough with axis roughly from the Great Lakes to the central Gulf
Coast.
A clipper type system moves quickly SE and both the GFS and EC agree
on having a brief TN and NC border snowfall Friday morning. Cold
Canadian High Pressure moves from the Mississippi Valley Friday to
be centered over the Carolinas Saturday morning providing dry
weather. However, yet another cold front moves quickly SE toward our
area Saturday night into Sunday. With low thickness values and the
established cold temperatures combined with this front tapping some
moisture from the Gulf, wintry weather is coming for a broader area
than just the mountains. Of course, this forecast ends at 12Z Sunday
with the GFS already bringing precip into our area while the EC
delays it until mid day Sunday and the PM.
Temperatures will be several degrees above normal Thursday then
dropping to as much as 10 degrees below normal into the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: A last shot of isolated showers is flirting
with KCLT under the passing upper trough this morning, but otherwise
the foothill/piedmont TAF sites will remain dry going forward. The
main exception will be for small chance of lingering rain/snow
showers near KAVL in moist northwest flow. Expect low ceilings to
scatter from the west with post fropa drying, but with MVFR cigs
getting reestablished at KAVL as moisture flows up the French Broad
Valley. These cigs will slowly lift and scatter through the day.
Northwest winds will come up quickly today as cold advection and
mixing develop this morning. Expect robust gusts to 40 kt or better
at KAVL, with some gusts in excess of 30 kt at the foothill/piedmont
sites. The gusty northwest winds will likely not diminish much until
tonight east of the mountains, and toward Monday morning at
KAVL.
Outlook: Windy conditions and cold temperatures will linger into
Monday. The next storm system should approach by mid-week, with
moisture and restrictions possibly returning.
Confidence Table...
11-17Z 17-23Z 23-05Z 05-06Z
KCLT High 94% High 100% High 100% High 100%
KGSP High 100% High 100% High 100% High 100%
KAVL High 94% High 100% High 100% High 100%
KHKY High 100% High 100% High 100% High 100%
KGMU High 100% High 100% High 100% High 100%
KAND High 100% High 100% High 100% High 100%
The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:
www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...Wind Advisory until 1 AM EST Monday for GAZ010-017.
NC...Wind Advisory until 1 AM EST Monday for NCZ048-051-052-058-059-
062>064.
Wind Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for NCZ035>037-056-
057-068-069-502-504-506-508-510.
Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for NCZ033-
048>052-058.
Wind Chill Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 10 AM EST
Monday for NCZ033-048>053-059-501-503-505.
High Wind Warning until 7 AM EST Monday for NCZ033-049-050-053-
065-501-503-505-507-509.
SC...Wind Advisory until 1 AM EST Monday for SCZ001>003.
Wind Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for SCZ006>008.
&&
SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...HG
SHORT TERM...Wimberley
LONG TERM...DEO
AVIATION...HGHazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 334 AM EST Sun Jan 20 2019 NCZ048-051-052-210845- Madison-Swain-Haywood- 334 AM EST Sun Jan 20 2019 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING... ...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY... ...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST MONDAY... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western North Carolina. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Winter Weather Advisory. Wind Advisory. Wind Chill Advisory. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Wind Chill Advisory. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... None. NCZ033-049-050-210845- Avery-Yancey-Mitchell- 334 AM EST Sun Jan 20 2019 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING... ...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY... ...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST MONDAY... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western North Carolina. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Winter Weather Advisory. High Wind Warning. Wind Chill Advisory. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. High Wind Warning. Wind Chill Advisory. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... None. NCZ053-501-503-505-210845- Buncombe-Caldwell Mountains-Burke Mountains-McDowell Mountains- 334 AM EST Sun Jan 20 2019 ...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY... ...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST MONDAY... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western North Carolina. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. High Wind Warning. Wind Chill Advisory. Additionally, with sharply colder conditions returning to the region, ice may form on some roads and bridges today, which will last into tomorrow morning. Please see the latest Special Weather Statement for more details. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. High Wind Warning. Wind Chill Advisory. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... None. NCZ059-210845- Northern Jackson- 334 AM EST Sun Jan 20 2019 ...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY... ...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST MONDAY... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western North Carolina. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Wind Advisory. Wind Chill Advisory. Additionally, with sharply colder conditions returning to the region, ice may form on some roads and bridges today, which will last into tomorrow morning. Please see the latest Special Weather Statement for more details. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Wind Chill Advisory. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... None. NCZ058-210845- Graham- 334 AM EST Sun Jan 20 2019 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING... ...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western North Carolina. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Winter Weather Advisory. Wind Advisory. Additionally, with sharply colder conditions returning to the region, ice may form on some roads and bridges today, which will last into tomorrow morning. Please see the latest Special Weather Statement for more details. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... None. NCZ065-507-509-210845- Henderson-Rutherford Mountains-Polk Mountains- 334 AM EST Sun Jan 20 2019 ...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western North Carolina. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. High Wind Warning. Additionally, with sharply colder conditions returning to the region, ice may form on some roads and bridges today, which will last into tomorrow morning. Please see the latest Special Weather Statement for more details. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. High Wind Warning. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... None. NCZ062>064-210845- Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania- 334 AM EST Sun Jan 20 2019 ...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western North Carolina. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Wind Advisory. Additionally, with sharply colder conditions returning to the region, ice may form on some roads and bridges today, which will last into tomorrow morning. Please see the latest Special Weather Statement for more details. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... None. NCZ035>037-056-057-068-069-502-504-506-508-510-SCZ006>008-210845- Alexander-Iredell-Davie-Catawba-Rowan-Cleveland-Lincoln- Greater Caldwell-Greater Burke-Eastern McDowell-Greater Rutherford- Eastern Polk-Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-Cherokee- 334 AM EST Sun Jan 20 2019 ...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for piedmont North Carolina, western North Carolina and upstate South Carolina. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Wind Advisory. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... None. GAZ018-026-028-029-NCZ070>072-082-SCZ004-005-009>014-019-210845- Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union- Greater Oconee-Greater Pickens-York-Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens- Chester-Greenwood- 334 AM EST Sun Jan 20 2019 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, piedmont North Carolina and upstate South Carolina. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... None. GAZ010-017-SCZ001>003-210845- Rabun-Habersham-Oconee Mountains-Pickens Mountains- Greenville Mountains- 334 AM EST Sun Jan 20 2019 ...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia and upstate South Carolina. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Wind Advisory. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... None. Wimberley
Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 357 AM EST Sun Jan 20 2019 GAZ010-NCZ053-059-062>065-501-503-505-507-509-201700- Rabun-Buncombe-Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson- Transylvania-Henderson-Caldwell Mountains-Burke Mountains- McDowell Mountains-Rutherford Mountains-Polk Mountains- Including the cities of Clayton, Pine Mountain, Mountain City, Asheville, Cullowhee, Tuckasegee, Sylva, Franklin, Rainbow Springs, Kyle, Nantahala Lake, Highlands, Wolf Mountain, Cashiers, Brevard, Cedar Mountain, Little River, Hendersonville, Fletcher, Dana, East Flat Rock, Tuxedo, Etowah, Patterson, Jonas Ridge, Ashford, Sugar Hill, Woodlawn, Old Fort, Lake Lure, and Saluda 357 AM EST Sun Jan 20 2019 ...AREAS OF BLACK ICE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINA AND EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING... An extremely cold air mass will move quickly into the southern Appalachians this morning behind a departing cold front. Given the recent rainfall and the rapidly falling temperatures, any water on area roadways will quickly freeze. This flash freeze may result in the development of black ice. Untreated roads may become slippery in some locations this morning. Caution is advised for anyone planning to travel today across the mountains of North Carolina, or Rabun County in northeast Georgia. HG
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
4 high wind. Local standard time, as filed.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in North Carolina in 2019Every state in 2019This day in weather historyWarnings in North Carolina, January 2019
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 804692, 804693, 804694, 804695.