A clusters of showers and storms moved across portions of the eastern Piedmont and Coastal Plain of central North Carolina during the late afternoon and early evening in a warm, moist and unstable atmosphere. Some of the clusters produced very heavy rainfall, which resulted in localized flash flooding.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS RAH wrote it up.
A clusters of showers and storms moved across portions of the eastern Piedmont and Coastal Plain of central North Carolina during the late afternoon and early evening in a warm, moist and unstable atmosphere. Some of the clusters produced very heavy rainfall, which resulted in localized flash flooding.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Raleigh, NC wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 5, 2:47 PM EST, 58 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Raleigh NC 347 PM EDT Mon Aug 5 2019 .SYNOPSIS... A series of upper level disturbances will cross our region through Wednesday. These disturbances interacting with available moisture will trigger scattered showers and thunderstorms across central NC. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 345 PM Monday... Scattered convection developing across the eastern half of central NC at 19Z, forming along and east of a eastward drifting sfc trough. Latest meso analysis depicts a slightly unstable atmosphere, though quite wet with precipitable water values closer to two inches. Mean steering flow westerly 10-15kts, suggesting that locally excessive rainfall quite possible for a few locations, especially urbanized areas. If a strong to severe storm were to occur, it would be most likely across the western Piedmont where drier air on the back side of the mid level trough man entrain into any storm that develop, enhancing the downdrafts, leading to strong/locally damaging microbursts. The mid level trough, depicted on water vapor imagery drifting slowly east-northeast into central NC will continue to lift newd tonight and weaken with time. Thus, expect the bulk of the convection to dissipate around/shortly after sunset, with clearing skies expected thereafter. Near term model guidance still suggesting a potential for areas of fog overnight into early Tuesday. While the potential for dense fog exists, forecaster confidence not high enough to go with an advisory for the overnight hours. Will let the evening and midnight forecast crews assess/monitor the situation. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 345 PM Monday... In the wake of the departing mid level trough, anticipate a wly flow aloft Tuesday with modest height rises. In addition, the atmosphere is forecast to be a tad drier. Thus, expect afternoon convection to be a little less numerous, and primarily over the western Piedmont. In anticipation of more sun compared to this afternoon, temperatures should respond accordingly, return to near normal levels in the upper 80s-lower 90s. Any lingering convection early Tuesday evening will dissipate prior to midnight. While sfc winds tonight will be calm, sfc winds Tuesday night will be light and sly in response to a s/w aloft approaching from the NW. This will lead to strengthening of a sfc trough to our west, with the tightening sfc pressure gradient producing the persistent sly flow well into the night. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 215 PM Monday... The overall upper level pattern through the extended period will be characterized by high pressure centered over the desert southwest, very slowly drifting east and deamplifying through Monday. The upper level trough will similarly remain over the Northeast and mid- Atlantic, with the trough axis shifting very slowly eastward and offshore through Monday. The weather over central NC and the Mid- Atlantic will be determined by a series of shortwave disturbances moving through/over the area and the potential passage of a cold front. At the surface, a series of weak surface lows in response to the upper level disturbances will develop over/move through the region. Otherwise, the Piedmont trough will remain in place through much of the extended. The aforementioned potential cold front cold push into central NC Wednesday night/Thursday, resulting in a noticeable drop in dewpoints/humidity. There could be a stronger cold frontal passage over the weekend, but there is quite a bit of uncertainty with whether/how far it will sink into the area. As a result, confidence is low at this time. There could be some increased precipitation chances ahead of the fronts, otherwise convection should primarily be diurnally driven and most likely along differential heating boundaries. Given the lack of significant airmass change (in the absence of a fropa over the weekend) temperatures will remain fairly persistent with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s and lows in the upper 60s to low 70s. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 125 PM Monday... Typical summertime weather pattern expected across central NC through the work week as a moist atmosphere will support periods of sub VFR ceilings, mainly in the form of late night/early morning stratus and fog, and again in the afternoon when scattered convection develops. Through 00Z Tuesday, expect scattered convection to develop with MVFR/IFR parameters likely where the heavier showers occur. Wind gusts 30-40kts will occur with the stronger storms. The bulk of the convection will diminish/dissipate between 00Z and 02Z. In their wake, anticipate clearing skies and VFR parameters. After 08Z, areas of fog and low clouds will begin to develop with areas to widespread LIFR ceilings and visibilities due to fog expected near most TAF sites between 09Z-12Z. The fog and low clouds will lift into a scatter-broken stratocu layer between 13Z and 15Z Tuesday. The above scenario will repeat itself through Wednesday night/Thursday morning. It currently appears that the convective coverage will be a little less Tuesday afternoon than the past few afternoons, though convection is expected to become a greater possibility Wednesday afternoon-evening. A slightly drier, more stable air mass will overspread the Carolinas late in the week. This will yield a better chance for VFR conditions and limit the potential for late night/early morning LIFR fog. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && SYNOPSIS...WSS NEAR TERM...WSS SHORT TERM...WSS LONG TERM...KC AVIATION...WSS
Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED National Weather Service Raleigh NC 425 PM EDT Mon Aug 5 2019 NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-061000- Person-Granville-Vance-Warren-Halifax-Forsyth-Guilford-Alamance- Orange-Durham-Franklin-Nash-Edgecombe-Davidson-Randolph-Chatham-Wake- Johnston-Wilson-Stanly-Montgomery-Moore-Lee-Harnett-Wayne-Anson- Richmond-Scotland-Hoke-Cumberland-Sampson- 425 PM EDT Mon Aug 5 2019 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina. .DAY ONE...Tonight. Slow moving scattered thunderstorms will produce locally excessive rainfall through early this evening. This may lead to minor flooding of streets, underpasses, and small creeks and streams. A thunderstorm or two may produce a strong or locally damaging wind gust. Areas of fog are expected to develop after midnight. The fog may be thick enough in spots to reduce the visibility to less than a quarter of a mile. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday. Hazardous weather is not expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
349 PM EDT Mon Aug 5 2019
NCZ008-025-041-052030-
Durham NC-Wake NC-Granville NC-
349 PM EDT Mon Aug 5 2019
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN GRANVILLE...NORTH
CENTRAL WAKE AND EAST CENTRAL DURHAM COUNTIES UNTIL 430 PM EDT...
At 349 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Creedmoor, moving southeast at 15 mph.
Pea size hail, heavy downpours, and wind gusts up to 40 mph will be
possible with this storm.
Locations impacted include...
Creedmoor, Butner, Stem, Falls Lake, Falls Lake State Rec Area, Falls
Lake Boat Ramp, Purnell and Rollingview Marina.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Seek shelter in a nearby building or vehicle. Wind gusts as high as
40 mph are capable of knocking down tree limbs and blowing around
trash cans, potted plants, lawn furniture and other light outdoor
objects.
Locally heavy rain will quickly reduce visibility and result in
ponding of water on roadways, standing water in low lying areas, and
minor flooding of creeks, streams, and areas of poor drainage.
Drivers are urged to slow down and use extra caution to avoid
hydroplaning, especially in urban areas where prolonged heavy rain
can quickly lead to flooding.
&&
LAT...LON 3618 7851 3617 7850 3608 7854 3602 7855
3601 7852 3591 7861 3606 7882 3626 7868
TIME...MOT...LOC 1949Z 300DEG 12KT 3610 7873
MORROWThe Raleigh/Durham radar (KRAX), 33 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 20:46 UTC.
2 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Flash Flooding was reported near the intersection of Glenwood Avenue and Kodiak Drive.
Flash flooding was reported on portions of Two Creeks Road between Lake Pine Drive and Cary Parkway.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in North Carolina in 2019Every state in 2019This day in weather historyWarnings in North Carolina, August 2019
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 851900, 851901.