Two rounds of storms affected the Northland on the 5th with a complex during the morning hours producing wind damage followed by additional development during the afternoon hours as the cold front moved through. Morning storms produced areas of tree damage and downed power lines from the Leech Lake area eastward to the I-35 corridor with recorded gusts of 61 and 62 mph at area airports.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS DLH wrote it up.
Two rounds of storms affected the Northland on the 5th with a complex during the morning hours producing wind damage followed by additional development during the afternoon hours as the cold front moved through. Morning storms produced areas of tree damage and downed power lines from the Leech Lake area eastward to the I-35 corridor with recorded gusts of 61 and 62 mph at area airports. After the first complex of storms moved through, conditions again became unstable ahead of the advancing cold front. Additional storms developed ahead of the front, but did not mature and become severe until they crossed into Wisconsin.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Duluth, MN wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 5, 5:28 AM CST, 17 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 628 AM CDT Mon Aug 5 2019 .UPDATE... Issued at 628 AM CDT Mon Aug 5 2019 Please see the 12Z Aviation discussion below. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday) Issued at 407 AM CDT Mon Aug 5 2019 Thunderstorm complex over North Dakota and northwest Minnesota is expected to progress east-southeastward through this morning. The eastern periphery of the thunderstorm complex will likely move into Cass, Crow Wing, Aitkin, and Pine counties between 6 and 9 AM. A cold front will push southeastward along with the storms which will continue to provide low-level convergence to sustain storms. The airmass over our Minnesota zones remains unstable, but capped as of 4 AM. The cap is expected to erode ahead of the complex by mid-morning allowing storms to root in the boundary layer as they move out of the forecast area by early afternoon. Additional storm development is expected along the cold front as it moves through northwest Wisconsin this afternoon. Some of the storms may be strong to severe with large hail and damaging winds possible. MLCAPE values on the order of 1000-1500 J/kg is forecast along with 0-6 km bulk shear of 35 to 40 knots. The storms will move out of the area by early this evening as high pressure moves into the Northland. Drier air will filter into the region for Tuesday. Temperatures won’t be much cooler, but the drier air will make conditions more comfortable. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 407 AM CDT Mon Aug 5 2019 Showers and thunderstorms expected Tuesday night through Wednesday as a cold front slides through. After the front slides through expect dry and quiet weather with near normal temperatures as high pressure takes control. A cutoff low will slowly rotate southeastward from northern Manitoba Tuesday night into Hudson Bay and northern Ontario by Wednesday night. At the surface a cold front will slide southeastward through northern Minnesota and northern Wisconsin. This will bring showers and thunderstorms to most of the region. There is an opportunity late in the morning and during the afternoon for some stronger thunderstorms across much of northwest Wisconsin. Along and just behind the cold front 0-6 km bulk shear values will be around 40 to 45 knots. Just ahead of the front instability values vary depending on model output. The GFS seems more reasonable at this point in time with values ranging from a few hundred to around 2000 J/kg of CAPE, while the latest NAM is much more bullish with values up to 4000 J/kg. The 12Z NAM is more in line with the latest GFS, which seems more reasonable. The big question at this point in time is if the shear couples with the instability, which seem a bit offset at this point. If it is able to do so then some severe storms are possible. Main threats for storms would be damaging wind gusts and large hail. This matches up well with the latest SPC Day 3 Outlook. Behind the front winds aloft will shift to the northwest and advect cooler air into the region. High temperatures will be in the 70s. High pressure will build into Northern Plains and central Canada late on Wednesday into early Thursday. The cutoff low will remain generally in the same location as the previous day. Flow will remain northwesterly advecting cooler air into the region. With the high nudging in skies will be partly cloudy to mostly clear. Lows range from the mid 40s to the mid 50s. The high will build into the Upper Midwest on Thursday which will keep the weather dry and quiet. Cool northwesterly flow will continue. High pressure will remain in control on Friday as it builds into the Mid Mississippi River Valley. Flow aloft will gradually switch from a cool northwesterly direction to a westerly direction. This will begin advecting warmer air into the region. Temperatures will be slightly warmer on Friday with highs in the mid to upper 70s. Confidence in the forecast after Friday decreases as the latest guidance is split on the intensity of the next wave moving in from the northwest. The latest ECMWF/GEM depict a much stronger shortwave when compared to the previous runs of the ECWMF/GEM and the latest and previous GFS. If things trend toward the latest ECWMF/GEM then Saturday will be much wetter than Sunday, whereas previous runs of these models and current and past GFS show a relatively dry forecast. Have leaned on majority of runs showing a drier forecast and is reflected in the forecast. Sunday at this point in time has a better opportunity for showers and storms, but again being a week out the confidence in the evolution of things is low. Will need to monitor things as the week progresses. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning) Issued at 628 AM CDT Mon Aug 5 2019 Anticipating MVFR/IFR conditions this morning as fog lifts. Expect MVFR/IFR to continue mainly across HIB, BRD, DLH this morning as a mesoscale convective system moves through bringing showers and thunderstorms. Uncertain how low visiblities will get at this time, but have honed in on thunderstorm timing based on current radar trends and the HRRR guidance. Thunderstorms will develop to the north of the MCS this afternoon over northwest Wisconsin per HREF guidance. This will bring MVFR and potential IFR conditions at HYR this afternoon. Behind the thunderstorms expect conditions to improve to VFR with winds shifting to a northwesterly direction as the cold front slides through. Winds will become light and variable as skies clear and high pressure builds in tonight. Expect some fog development with recent precipitation and light winds. Only mention at HYR at this point in time, but will likely need at other terminals in later TAF updates. && .MARINE... Issued at 407 AM CDT Mon Aug 5 2019 Generally quiet in the marine with strengthening southwesterly flow on Monday. Winds will be 10-15 knots with gusts around 15 knots during the afternoon. The main concern will be thunderstorm activity during the morning and through much of the afternoon as a cold front slides through. A few strong to severe storms are possible. The main threats with any storms would be strong winds, hail and cloud to water lightning. Winds will gradually shift to the northwest behind the front tonight into early Tuesday. On Tuesday a weak high will build in and shift winds again to a southerly direction. Wind speeds will be at 10 knots or less with dry weather. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DLH 80 57 82 59 / 50 10 10 20 INL 81 54 82 53 / 20 0 30 30 BRD 81 59 84 61 / 90 10 10 30 HYR 80 56 82 60 / 60 20 10 20 ASX 82 58 83 61 / 40 10 0 20 && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. MN...None. LS...None. && UPDATE...WL SHORT TERM...Huyck LONG TERM...WL AVIATION...WL MARINE...WL
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Duluth MN 415 AM CDT Mon Aug 5 2019 MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-033>038-WIZ001>004-006>009-061130- Koochiching-North St. Louis-Northern Cook/Northern Lake- North Itasca-Central St. Louis-Southern Lake/North Shore- Southern Cook/North Shore-North Cass-South Itasca-South Cass- Crow Wing-Northern Aitkin-South Aitkin-Carlton/South St. Louis- Pine-Douglas-Bayfield-Ashland-Iron-Burnett-Washburn-Sawyer-Price- 415 AM CDT Mon Aug 5 2019 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight Thunderstorms will move into central Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin this morning and redevelopment is expected this afternoon in northwest Wisconsin as a cold front moves through the Northland. Some storms may be strong to severe with large hail, damaging winds, and torrential rainfall possible. The strongest storms will likely occur this afternoon as the cold front moves into the Hayward and Mercer areas and pushes farther south. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday Strong to severe thunderstorms cannot be ruled out on Wednesday across northwest Wisconsin. The main threats with any stronger storms will be damaging wind gusts and large hail. Thunderstorms are possible on Sunday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Skywarn spotters may be needed this morning and this afternoon. LSZ121-140>148-061130- Bayfield to Oak Point WI-Grand Portage to Grand Marais MN- Grand Marais to Taconite Harbor MN- Taconite Harbor to Silver Bay Harbor MN- Silver Bay Harbor to Two Harbors MN-Two Harbors to Duluth MN- Duluth MN to Port Wing WI-Port Wing to Sand Island WI- Sand Island to Bayfield WI-Oak Point to Saxon Harbor WI- 415 AM CDT Mon Aug 5 2019 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Nearshore waters of western Lake Superior. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight Thunderstorms are possible across much of western Lake Superior today. A few strong to severe storms cannot be ruled out. The main threat with any stronger storms would be strong winds, hail and cloud to water lightning. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday Thunderstorms are possible across western Lake Superior late on Tuesday into Wednesday. A few stronger storms cannot be ruled out along the South Shore of western Lake Superior on Wednesday. The main threats with any stronger storms would be strong winds, hail and cloud to water lightning. Thunderstorms are possible on Sunday across western Lake Superior. Huyck/WL More information may be obtained at the following web address: http://www.weather.gov/duluth (all lower case)
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Duluth MN
613 AM CDT Mon Aug 5 2019
MNZ025-033-051145-
North Cass-South Cass-
613 AM CDT Mon Aug 5 2019
...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT WEST CENTRAL CASS
COUNTY...
At 613 AM CDT, strong thunderstorms were along a line extending from
9 miles south of Lake George, to near Huntersville, to New York
Mills, and moving east at 40 mph.
Wind gusts up to 50 mph, half inch hail, torrential rainfall, and
frequent cloud to ground lightning can be expected with these storms.
Locations impacted include...
Walker, Pine River, Hackensack, Backus, Poplar, Leech Lake, Oshawa,
Ten Mile Lake, Chickamaw Beach, Pheasant Lake, Lake Ada, Webb Lake,
and Big Portage Lake.
Seek shelter inside a sturdy building and away from windows until
these storms pass. Get off area lakes and seek shelter on shore in a
sturdy shelter or a hard topped vehicle.
LAT...LON 4680 9479 4680 9466 4714 9467 4715 9466
4715 9452 4681 9432 4680 9434 4677 9434
4646 9478
TIME...MOT...LOC 1113Z 275DEG 33KT 4707 9507 4683 9493 4651 9538
HuyckThe Duluth radar (KDLH), 176 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 11:47 UTC.
8 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Numerous trees and power lines were reported down from the storm.
Multiple trees were downed by the storm.
Numerous trees and a few power lines were reported down.
The gust was measured by the KDLH Duluth International Airport ASOS.
A photo was received showing a large tree branch down in the city of Hinckley.
The gust was reported by the AWOS at the Hinckley Field of Dreams Airport.
Several trees and power lines were knocked down in Gnesen Township.
Several trees and power lines were knocked down in Duluth Township.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Minnesota in 2019Every state in 2019This day in weather historyWarnings in Minnesota, August 2019
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 850935, 850936, 850937, 850941, 850938, 850942, 850939, 850940.