An isolated severe thunderstorm developed near Fonda on July 16th, resulting in a localized area of tree damage.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS ALY wrote it up.
An isolated severe thunderstorm developed near Fonda on July 16th, resulting in a localized area of tree damage.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Albany, NY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 16, 4:57 PM EST, 2 hours 14 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 557 PM EDT Tue Jul 16 2019 .SYNOPSIS... Warm and humid conditions will remain in place through tonight with a few isolated thundershowers through early evening. Then a cold front dropping south from Canada will combine with tropical moisture resulting in areas of showers and thunderstorms late tonight through Wednesday night. Storms will be capable of heavy rain and potential isolated flooding. Some severe storms are also possible, mainly south and east of the Capital Region, with damaging winds the main concern. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... As of 4:30PM, our warm front has now crossed into New England with a very warm and humid warm sector spreading through eastward across eastern NY and western New England. Clouds broke for enough sun that allowed many areas to see high temperatures climb into the mid - upper 80s with even low 90s from Albany southward to Poughkeepsie. Dew points also rose through the day with humid conditions now in place across the region with dew points in the low to mid 60s. Areas west of the Hudson River are even recording dew points in the upper 60s to near 70. Showers and thunderstorms fired along a sea breeze boundary in west-central NY this afternoon and the broad westerly flow within the warm sector have pushed these isolated showers and thunderstorms into the Mohawk Valley and Schoharie Valley. Cross sections of these storms shows convection is rather shallow and skinny so these have only produced a few isolated lightning strikes. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... More widespread showers/storms currently in the western Catskills continue to advance eastward and the latest hi-res guidance shows these storms reaching areas west of the Hudson mainly from 23z to 03z so increased POPs to chance during this period. After 03/04z, showers/storms should diminish given the lose of daytime heating. Otherwise, expecting a humid and warm night as our region remains in the warm sector. A cold front moving through Michigan and Ontario, Canadian will continue sagging southeastward tonight with the remnants of Hurricane Barry in the Midwest. The approaching frontal boundary should help focus tropical moisture along it, leading to areas of showers and thunderstorms overnight within the Saint Lawrence River Valley. Latest guidance continues to show areas of showers and some isolated thunderstorms shifting southeastward into the Adirondacks towards 06z. This southeastward push should gradually continue through sunrise but areas from Albany south and east expected to remain mainly dry. Given the tropical moisture will be stream along our frontal boundary, period of heavy rain are possible overnight for areas in the Adirondacks, Upper Hudson Valley and southern VT. In fact, PWATs should rise to 1.5-2 inches ahead of our frontal boundary. Southwesterly flow ahead of our slowly approaching frontal boundary will continue focusing tropical moisture into eastern NY and western New England tomorrow which should lead to a very humid day. In fact, dew points should range from the mid 60s to low 70s. As our cold front continues pushing southeastward through the morning, areas of showers and some thunderstorms that should give the Adirondacks, the Upper Hudson Valley and southern VT a wet morning should also shift closer to the I-90 corridor by midday. While areas in the mid- Hudson Valley, Catskill, NW CT and the Berkshires should stay mainly dry for the morning hours, we will have to closely monitor any breaks for sun or thinning of clouds. Given the high moisture in place, any sun will likely increase instability with the latest guidance showing potential for 1000-1500J/kg of DB CAPE developing after 17/18z. With shear increasing through the afternoon as Barry continues advancing northeastward, we are becoming more concerned for scattered thunderstorms, some of which could be severe. The latest outlook from the SPC outlines this region in a marginal risk but should confidence for breaks of sun increase, we could see this increasing to a slight risk. With 0-6km bulk shear increasing to 30-40knots and 850-700mb lapse rates steepening to near 6.5C/km damaging winds is the main concern. Of course, given the high humidity, it's no surprise our freezing height looks to be around 14kft so very efficient warm rain processes could lead to high rainfall rates of 1-2 inches per hour in any thunderstorms. The main potential for any severe weather looks to be from 17z to 23z for areas that remain ahead of our main frontal boundary. The main cold front continues slowly sinking southeastward into the Capital Region by early afternoon and eventually into the mid- Hudson Valley towards 00z. With the 850-300mb flow oriented parallel to the frontal boundary in addition to the 25-30kt low level jet, repeated/training convection is a growing concern which could lead to flash flooding in some areas. Luckily, antecedent conditions in eastern NY and especially western New England have been very dry the past two weeks which should help mitigated widespread flooding. However, given PWATS should be 2-3 standard deviations above normal near 2-2.25", we agree with WPC's latest excessive rainfall outlook that outlines areas from Albany southward in a slight risk. The sheared out vort max that once was Barry should move into southern NY tomorrow evening, riding along our slow moving frontal boundary. This interaction could enhanced rainfall amounts and lead to a widespread area of heavy rain from 00z to 06z Thursday for the mid-Hudson Valley and NW CT. The NAM and Canadian suggest that the front may be just to our south once Barry's remnants becomes focused along the front which would keep the heaviest rain just to our south closer to NYC. However, given the very slow progression of our front and the more aggressive ECMWF output, we showed enhanced rainfall amounts in our southern zones Wednesday night to account for this period of heavier rain. The remnant moisture and frontal boundary should gradually exit into New England overnight but it could be a slow departure so continue to show chance POPS until 12z Thursday. Storm total rainfall is expected to range 1 to 1.5 inches but given potential for training/repeated convection within a tropical environment, isolated higher amounts are possible. Thursday looks to a cloudy and muggy day as high pressure in the wake of our cold front becomes centered over northern New England. Southeast flow in place over area should advect in a cooler and humid marine influenced air mass that should temperatures cooler in the 70s to near 80. However, dew points likely remain high in the 60s. Some isolated showers may be possible given this set-up, especially closer to stalled frontal boundary that may still be positioned over southern New England. Thursday night should remain muggy and cloudy with any lingering showers finally diminishing as our high pressure finally kicks our cold front to our south. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Oppressive heat and humidity will be in place across the region to start the period with Heat Advisories and/or Excessive Heat Warnings possible. A high pressure ridge centered over the mid-Atlantic will extend north into the Northeast Friday through Sunday. Temperatures under the ridge will soar through the weekend. GEFS guidance shows 925mb temperatures running 2-3 standard deviations above normal, with departures peaking at 4 standard deviations above normal on Saturday. PWATS will be well above normal as well leading to humid conditions. Heat Indices will run 95-105 through the Hudson and Mohawk Valleys. Heat Advisories are possible in most valley locations Friday through Sunday, and in some higher elevations. Heat Indices peak on Saturday with Excessive Heat Warning criteria possibly being reached in parts of the mid Hudson Valley. Adding to potential health issues, little nighttime relief will occur Friday night and Saturday night with low temperatures running in the low to mid 70s both nights most locations, 60s highest elevations. As far as thunderstorm potential goes, instability will be quite high given the temperatures and dew points. The location for most active thunderstorm activity is north of the region where winds are stronger. The atmosphere will be warm through the entire column. In particular 700mb temperatures will be 10-12C. Thus with a cap in place, thunderstorm activity will be limited. Again, the best location for any organized storms to get going will be across the northern CWA. South of there, a few pulse storms are possible. && .AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Mainly VFR conditions with variable cloud coverage is forecast into this evening. Thunderstorms have developed in western NY and will slowly move eastward this afternoon into this evening. Per the latest reflectivity forecasts from various high resolution models, an isolated shower or storm could approach the TAF sites around sunset before dissipating after dark. Additional showers and storms are expected to arrive 03-04Z as the remnants of Barry approach from the west and a cold front approaches from the north so have included prob30 for showers and storms. Today, winds will be from the south- southwest at 10-20 kts. Winds will become light and variable late tonight. Southeast winds of 5 to 10 kt are forecast for Wednesday. Outlook... Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Scattered SHRA...TSRA. Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Thursday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Friday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Saturday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. && .FIRE WEATHER... Showers and thunderstorms will be widespread late tonight into Wednesday, as a frontal system approaches from the north, and remnant moisture from Barry tracks across the area. Given the tropical nature of the moisture, heavy rainfall in showers and thunderstorms is likely as the precipitation shield slides south through Wednesday. The front may settle south of the region Thursday, bringing slightly cooler temperatures, before surging back northward Friday, setting the stage for heat and humidity into the upcoming weekend. RH will climb to 90-100 percent tonight, dropping to only 60-80 percent Wednesday afternoon, before climbing to near 100 percent Wednesday night. Winds will be southwest at 5-15 mph tonight and Wednesday morning then shift to the northwest at similar speeds Wednesday afternoon. && .HYDROLOGY... Increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms will occur across the area Wednesday into Thursday. This will be mainly due to the remnants of Barry lifting through the region. Showers Wednesday into Thursday could contain localized heavy rainfall. However, a mitigating factor for heavy rain is that most of the region has been drier than normal during the past 30 days. WPC continues areas along and south of the I-90 corridor in NY and western New England within a slight risk for excessive rainfall, with the remainder of eastern New York/western New England in a marginal risk due to anomalous high PWATs and some potential for training of deeper convective cells. Any flooding concerns through this period would likely be localized in urban/poor drainage and low lying areas. Please visit our Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ web page for specific area rivers and lakes observations and forecasts. .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && SYNOPSIS...Speciale NEAR TERM...Speciale SHORT TERM...Speciale LONG TERM...OKeefe AVIATION...SND FIRE WEATHER...KL/OKeefe HYDROLOGY...KL/OKeefe
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Albany NY 552 PM EDT Tue Jul 16 2019 CTZ001-013-MAZ001-025-NYZ032-033-038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066- 082>084-VTZ013>015-172200- Northern Litchfield-Southern Litchfield-Northern Berkshire- Southern Berkshire-Northern Herkimer-Hamilton-Southern Herkimer- Southern Fulton-Montgomery-Northern Saratoga-Northern Warren- Northern Washington-Schoharie-Western Schenectady- Eastern Schenectady-Southern Saratoga-Western Albany-Eastern Albany- Western Rensselaer-Eastern Rensselaer-Western Greene-Eastern Greene- Western Columbia-Eastern Columbia-Western Ulster-Eastern Ulster- Western Dutchess-Eastern Dutchess-Northern Fulton-Southeast Warren- Southern Washington-Bennington-Western Windham-Eastern Windham- 552 PM EDT Tue Jul 16 2019 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwestern Connecticut, western Massachusetts, east central New York, eastern New York and southern Vermont. .DAY ONE...Tonight. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible tonight for areas near and west of the Hudson River as well as the Adirondacks. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday. There is a chance for thunderstorms on Wednesday, some of which may be severe with damaging winds the main concern. In addition, tropical moisture streams into the Northeast on Wednesday allowing thunderstorms to be capable of heavy rain. Storms may also repeatedly impact the same area with heat rain. This may result in urban and/or poor drainage flooding, especially for areas south of I-90. Then, hot and humid weather will develop Friday, Saturday and Sunday with heat indices potentially exceeding 100 degrees during the afternoon. Heat Advisories and Excessive Heat Warnings may be needed. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation may be needed.
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albany NY
719 PM EDT Tue Jul 16 2019
NYZ038>040-162345-
Southern Fulton-Southern Herkimer-Montgomery-
719 PM EDT Tue Jul 16 2019
...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN FULTON...
SOUTHERN HERKIMER AND NORTHWESTERN MONTGOMERY COUNTIES...
At 718 PM EDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from near Cedarville to near Jordanville.
Movement was east at 20 mph.
Winds in excess of 40 mph are possible with these storms.
Locations impacted include...
Ilion, Herkimer, Little Falls, Mohawk, Frankfort, Dolgeville, St.
Johnsville, Ephratah, Middleville, Jordanville, Cedarville,
Oppenheim, Fairfield, Elizabethtown, Ingham Mills, Jersalem Hill,
Spinnerville, Corrado Corners, Cedar Lake and Countryman.
This includes Interstate 90 between exits 29A and 30.
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and will
cause flooding of low lying and poor drainage areas. Do not drive
your vehicle through flooded roadways.
LAT...LON 4319 7494 4299 7449 4288 7483 4290 7488
4286 7489 4286 7490 4295 7521 4300 7521
TIME...MOT...LOC 2318Z 256DEG 19KT 4296 7508 4291 7490
IAASpecial Weather Statement National Weather Service Albany NY 744 PM EDT Tue Jul 16 2019 NYZ038>040-170030- Southern Fulton-Southern Herkimer-Montgomery- 744 PM EDT Tue Jul 16 2019 ...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN FULTON... SOUTHERN HERKIMER AND NORTHERN MONTGOMERY COUNTIES... At 743 PM EDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located along a line extending from Herkimer to Fort Plain. Movement was east at 20 mph. Winds in excess of 40 mph are possible with these storms. Locations impacted include... Ilion, Herkimer, Little Falls, Canajoharie, Fonda, Mohawk, Frankfort, Fort Plain, Dolgeville, St. Johnsville, Ephratah, Middleville, Tribes Hill, Glen, Oppenheim, Fairfield, Fultonville, Palatine Bridge, Nelliston and Ingham Mills. This includes Interstate 90 between exits 28 and 30. LAT...LON 4319 7487 4290 7419 4286 7464 4304 7516 TIME...MOT...LOC 2343Z 251DEG 17KT 4304 7499 4291 7462 OKEEFE
Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Albany NY 803 PM EDT Tue Jul 16 2019 NYZ049-050-052-053-170115- Eastern Schenectady-Southern Saratoga-Eastern Albany- Western Rensselaer- Including the cities of Schenectady, Rotterdam, Burnt Hills, Ballston Spa, Mechanicville, Clifton Park, Waterford, Albany, and Troy 803 PM EDT Tue Jul 16 2019 ...Scattered Showers and Thunderstorms Across the Capital District... Scattered showers and thunderstorms will impact the Capital District through 900 pm. These storms will produce briefly torrential rain and lightning. Remember - no place is safe outside during thunderstorms. OKeefe
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albany NY
809 PM EDT Tue Jul 16 2019
NYZ063-064-170100-
Western Ulster-Eastern Ulster-
809 PM EDT Tue Jul 16 2019
...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT CENTRAL ULSTER
COUNTY...
At 809 PM EDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from near Willowemoc to near Phillipsport.
Movement was northeast at 35 mph.
Locations impacted include...
Ellenville, Woodland Valley Campground, West Shokan, Kerhonkson,
Phoenicia, Tillson, Napanoch, Mount Tremper, Olivebridge, Wawarsing,
Crawford, Rosendale, Marbletown, Shandaken, Denning, Cherrytown,
Palentown, Atwood, Dwaarkill and Oliverea.
LAT...LON 4162 7439 4164 7439 4175 7457 4188 7445
4197 7465 4216 7442 4214 7438 4181 7400
4160 7434 4159 7436
TIME...MOT...LOC 0009Z 222DEG 30KT 4188 7463 4160 7440
ROKThe Albany radar (KENX), 49 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 00:10 UTC.
2 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Fifteen to twenty trees were downed on Hickory Hill Road.
Two trees were downed at Broadway and Park.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in New York in 2019Every state in 2019This day in weather historyWarnings in New York, July 2019
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 835213, 835214.