Winter Storm, Southern Erie
- When
- December 14, 3:00 PM EST to December 15, 7:00 AM EST
- Where
- Southern Erie forecast zone
- Reported by
- CoCoRaHS
- Coordinates
- 42.758, -78.780 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)
A complex scenario unfolded across the eastern Great Lakes. A southern stream shortwave moving out of the Ohio Valley phased with a northern stream trough over the western Great Lakes, and the resulting trough became negatively-tiled as it crossed the eastern Great Lakes.
Every event with a place to put it; 4 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS BUF wrote it up.
A complex scenario unfolded across the eastern Great Lakes. A southern stream shortwave moving out of the Ohio Valley phased with a northern stream trough over the western Great Lakes, and the resulting trough became negatively-tiled as it crossed the eastern Great Lakes. A broad surface low with several circulation centers moving north along the east coast consolidated into one, and the resultant rapidly-deepening low took an inland track through western New England to eastern Quebec. Precipitation started as rain everywhere. As the surface low and upper level features strengthened, the column cooled on the western flank of the system within the deformation zone in the comma ahead, allowing rain to change to wet snow from west to east. Model guidance struggled with the timing of the change to wet snow, however the best chances of heavier snow accumulation were always over the higher terrain of western New York. A few selected totals for the resultant snow after the changeover include to 9 inches in Boston, 8 inches in Warsaw, 9 inches in Ellicotville, and 10 inches in Bemus Point.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Buffalo, NY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Dec 14, 2:31 PM EST, 29 minutes earlier.
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</html>The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
4 winter storm. Local standard time, as filed.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in New York in 2019Every state in 2019This day in weather historyWarnings in New York, December 2019
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 869360, 869361, 869362, 869363.