Low pressure passed northwest of southern New England during the early morning with gusty southeast winds. This was followed by a second southerly low level jet, with winds of 80-90 knots at 925 mb.
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The episode as NWS BOX wrote it up.
Low pressure passed northwest of southern New England during the early morning with gusty southeast winds. This was followed by a second southerly low level jet, with winds of 80-90 knots at 925 mb. Despite a strong low level inversion, winds gusted past 60 mph at Nantucket in the late morning.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Boston/Norton, MA wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Dec 14, 7:17 AM EST, 2 hours 59 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
717 AM EST Sat Dec 14 2019
.SYNOPSIS...
Heavy rain this morning will taper off to scattered showers
this afternoon, but the potential for some river/stream flooding
continues through the weekend as a result of runoff. In
addition, a period of strong to damaging wind gusts is expected
today across the southeast New England coast, with the focus on
the Cape and Islands. Dry and blustery conditions will continue
Sunday. Below average temperatures move back in Monday along
with another round of snow arriving from the southwest, changing
to rain along the coast. There may also be a wintry mix Monday
night into Tuesday, which will change back to spotty light snow
Tuesday night. The snow will linger into early Wednesday, then
gusty northwest winds return Wednesday night into Thursday
morning. Dry and very cold conditions will linger through the
end of next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
650 AM Update...
Large area of rain, with embedded bands of heavy rain crossing
S coastal New England into eastern Massachusetts as seen on
latest NE regional 88D radar imagery, moving northward. Also
seeing some spotty C/G lightning lifting NE, but tending to
weaken as it approaches the S coast. Something to monitor along
the immediate S coast through around mid morning.
Will see the steady rainfall slowly taper to scattered showers,
bringing gradually improving conditions from S-N starting at
around mid morning, reaching N Mass by early afternoon.
However, scattered showers will linger into this evening before
the dry slot starts to approach. Showers will linger across N
central and W Mass possibly into N central CT as another mid
level short wave shifts across the region.
Temps were already in the upper 40s to mid 50s across the
coastal plain, but remained in the upper 30s to mid 40s well
inland. With the southerly winds in place, temps could make a
run at 60 across a few spots where readings were already in the
50s.
Have updated near term to bring conditions current.
Previous Discussion...
* Heavy Rain this morning may result in some urban street
flooding, as well as some river/small stream flooding through
the weekend
* Strong to damaging wind gusts expected later this morning into
mid afternoon across southeast New England, especially across
the Cape/Islands
1) Heavy Rain This Morning And Flood Potential:
Intensifying low pressure approaching from the southwest was
inducing an initial 60 to 75 knot SE low level jet early this
morning. This strong forcing was impinging on a PWAT plume 3-5
standard deviations above normal. The result was widespread
heavy rain very early this morning.
As the main surface low lifts to our northwest, guidance
indicates a secondary low pressure system intensifying near the
south coast later this morning. This result is a secondary pulse
of the southerly LLJ, but this time it is even stronger on the
order of 80 to 90 knots at 925 mb roughly between 14z and 19z.
This will allow heavy rain to continue through most of the
morning. There is some elevated instability, so a few embedded
t-storms may also impact eastern MA/RI with the greatest risk
across the Cape/Islands.
The core of the LLJ moves across eastern New England, but there
also is a low level boundary near RI/CT, separating the marine
airmass from the remaining shallow low level cold air. This
added convergence along with some orographic components has us
concerned about the potential for flooding in portions western
MA and northern CT as well. Given the ingredients in place,
especially with significant precipitation and the snowmelt of
the last week.
With all that said, the Flood Watch continues for all of
southern New England. We are still expecting widespread 1.50 to
2.50 inches of rain through the morning with localized 3 to 3.50
inch amounts possible. Given the recent rainfall and snowmelt
earlier in the week, the potential exists for some river and
stream flooding through the weekend as runoff continues. We also
may see some urban street flooding too with the heavy rain this
morning, especially in the typically vulnerable locations.
2) Strong to Damaging Wind Gusts Across Southeast New England:
The main concern for strong winds is roughly between 14z and 18z
across southeast New England. This is result of the secondary
low pressure system, inducing a southerly LLJ of 80 to 90 knots
at 925 mb. The core of this LLJ passes near the Cape/Islands. As
is typically the case, we will have a strong inversion in place
that will limit the mixing. Even with that said, a good rule of
thumb is to take 50-60 percent of that LLJ resulting in 45+
knot wind gusts. However, given heavy rain and possibly a few
embedded thunderstorms certainly see good potential for 50-55
knot wind gusts. Therefore, have upgraded the Cape/Islands to a
High Wind Warning. Further northwest, have expanded the Wind
Advisory to include parts of southern RI and into southeast MA.
Given the heavy rain and strong wind gusts will need to watch
for some tree damage and the potential for a scattered power
outages, especially towards the Cape Cod Canal.
3) The Widespread Heavy Rain Ends By Around Midday:
The widespread heavy rain will come to an end across most
locations by afternoon. This as a result of the mid level
centers passing to our west allowing our region to dryslot.
However, it will become unstable enough for additional
scattered showers to develop. Even the low risk for a rumble or
two of thunder. Much of the coastal plain will be in the warm
sector with temps well up into the 50s to lower 60s. Meanwhile,
much of the interior may be jammed in the lower to middle 40s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
* Additional Wind Headlines may be needed tonight *
Tonight...
Shortwave energy rotating through the region will allow for
some scattered showers during the evening, especially across
the interior. Otherwise, the main story will be the wind
tonight. Low pressure will continue to bomb out as it lifts
into Quebec tonight, dropping towards 970 mb. The result will
be a developing west to southwest LLJ of 45 to 60 knots.
Steepening lapse rates will allow for 35 to 50 mph wind gusts
and additional wind headlines might be needed tonight. This is
especially true across the Cape/Islands, where mixing over the
ocean will be ideal with WSW flow. Low temps by daybreak will
be in the middle 30s to the lower 40s.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Highlights...
* Expect dry but blustery conditions Sunday into Sunday night,
with snow showers lingering across the higher inland terrain.
Pockets of minor flooding will linger as area rivers crest
from the rainfall and snowmelt runoff.
* A seasonably cold Monday. The next low pressure center will
move in during the day, bringing snow to start then changing
to rain along the immediate coast and a wintry mix inland that
will linger through late Tuesday or Tuesday evening.
Confidence is moderate to high for an impactful storm, but
where the precipitation types will occur remains uncertain due
to model solution spread.
* Dry conditions but unseasonably cold temperatures expected
Wednesday night through Friday.
Details...
Sunday...
** Strong winds and pockets of minor river flooding **
May see some light snow showers linger across the E slopes of
the Berkshires through midday with only light accumulations,
otherwise expect dry conditions as blustery west winds move in.
However, with the tight pressure gradient around the exiting
low pressure into the Gulf of St. Lawrence, winds will become
strong especially along the immediate coast and across the
coastal waters. Will see gusts up to 25 to 35 kt across most
areas, except up to around 40 kt along the immediate coast and
especially Cape Cod and the islands. Gale Warnings will likely
remain in place through the day.
Another area of concern will be the localized flooding that
will likely occur along the local rivers and streams as the
levels crest due not only to the heavy rainfall that started
Friday night, but with snowmelt thanks to mild temperatures that
moved in. NERFC and our office continue to monitor river levels
for continued pockets of minor flooding.
Monday through Tuesday...
**Potential for snow becoming a wintry mix, except changing to
rain along the immediate coast during Tuesday**
A continued progressive mid level steering pattern in place
across the lower 48, with occasional deep H5 troughs that move
across through the week, another cold front will push across the
region by Monday morning with another shot of cold air moving
across.
With the continued steady fast flow aloft, another low from the
mid Mississippi and Ohio valleys will shift E-NE. This will be
another swath of light snow across from SW-NE during the midday
and afternoon hours. May see the precip mainly in the form of
rain along the immediate S coast, however. While temps remain at
or below freezing through Monday night across the region,
milder air will lift above the cold dome overnight which will
cause a wintry mix of precipitation away from the coast. Temps
will start to slowly rise overnight, which should change to mix
to rain across the coastal plain, but may see a prolonged period
of snow, sleet and/or freezing rain across the interior. Noting
the higher QPF values, on the order of 0.25 to 0.4 inches
remains S of the Mass Pike, but the lower amounts will still
fall where the mixed precip occurs. May need another round of
winter headlines for this event, but will continue to monitor
this closely.
As an elongated low passes S of the region Tuesday, will still
see the mixed precip Tuesday morning, then the colder air will
come back in as the low pushes offshore. Still quite a few
questions on the exact track and impacts that could occur with
this system Monday night and Tuesday, so below average
confidence for this portion of the forecast.
At this point, light snow or rain should taper off as it pushes
offshore Tuesday night.
Wednesday through Friday...
**Below average temperatures Thursday and Friday**
Large high pressure will build slowly E out of western Quebec
to the Appalachians Wednesday, passing across the region
sometime Friday. So, while we see dry conditions, a shot over
arctic air will push out of Will see a shot of very cold air
work in from the N-NW. The coldest air move across on Thursday,
with highs only in the mid teens across the E slopes of the
Berkshires ranging to the mid-upper 20s on Thursday! These
readings will run around 15 to near 20 degrees below seasonal
levels. The low Thursday night are forecast to drop to the
single digits across N central/NW Mass ranging to around 20
along the immediate S coast.
As the high shifts slowly offshore Friday, should see slowly
recover, but look to remain in the 20s to lower 30s.
The only precip currently forecast would be a batch of light
snow across the E slopes of the Berkshires around the Thursday
afternoon/evening timeframe.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
12Z Update...
Short Term /through Tonight/...
Today...Moderate to high confidence. Widespread IFR-LIFR
conditions in heavy rain this morning. Low risk for an embedded
t-storm or two across eastern MA/RI. The inversion holds across
the interior where LLWS will be a big concern along with areas
of fog. A period of strong winds will mix down across portions
of southeast New England where southerly wind gusts of 40 to 50
knots expected roughly between 14z and 18z. Strongest of those
winds across the Cape/Islands, where gusts up to 55 knots can
not be ruled out. The heavy and steady rainfall ends by
afternoon, but additional scattered showers are expected through
the remainder of the day.
Tonight...Moderate to high confidence. Scattered showers this
evening gives way to mainly dry weather overnight. IFR-MVFR
conditions this evening trend towards VFR conditions overnight.
However, WSW wind gusts of 30 to 40 knots expected with up to
45 knots across the Cape/Islands.
KBOS Terminal...Moderate to high confidence in TAF.
KBDL Terminal...Moderate to high confidence in TAF.
Outlook /Sunday through Wednesday/...
Sunday: VFR. Strong winds with gusts up to 40 kt.
Sunday Night: VFR. Strong winds with gusts up to 45 kt.
Monday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Breezy. Chance SN.
Monday Night: Mainly IFR, with areas MVFR possible. RA, SN
likely, PL, FZRA.
Tuesday: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Breezy. RA
likely, chance SN, FZRA likely, PL likely.
Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Breezy.
Slight chance SN.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy. Slight
chance SN.
&&
.MARINE...
Short Term /through Tonight/...
Today...Moderate to high confidence. A strong low level jet,
which peaks between 80 and 90 knots later this morning into mid
afternoon will result in strong gale to storm force wind gusts
developing. Despite the inversion, the powerful LLJ is very
close to the ground and some of it will be tapped in heavy rain
and perhaps a few embedded storms. Expect southerly wind gusts
of 40 to 50 knots later this morning into the afternoon. Brief
gusts up to 55 knots are possible near and especially southeast
of the Cape/Nantucket, where the core of the LLJ traverses. Seas
build to between 10 and 15 feet. Vsbys will also be reduced in
heavy rain and possibly a few embedded t-storms.
Tonight...High confidence. Low pressure bombs to near 970 mb as
it lifts from New England and Quebec tonight. The result will
be strong gale force WSW wind gusts on the order of 40 to 45
knots.
Outlook /Sunday through Wednesday/...
Sunday: Moderate risk for gale force winds with gusts up to
40 kt. Rough seas up to 15 ft.
Sunday Night: Low risk for gale force winds with gusts up to
40 kt. Rough seas up to 13 ft.
Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Chance of
rain, slight chance of snow.
Monday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching
5 ft. Rain likely, snow likely, patchy fog. Areas of visibility
1 to 3 nm.
Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Chance of
rain, patchy fog.
Tuesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of rough seas.
Slight chance of rain. Local visibility 1 to 3 nm.
Wednesday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts
up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 9 ft. Slight chance of snow.
Local visibility 1 to 3 nm.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Flood Watches remain posted for widespread 1.50 to 2.50 inches
of rain through the morning with localized 3 to 3.50 inch
amounts. This may result in urban flooding and eventually some
river/stream flooding. Some of the river/stream flooding will
develop through Sunday as runoff continues after the the heavy
rain ends and some River Flood Watches are already posted for
the region.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A 1 to 1.50 foot storm surge today may result in some very
minor coastal flooding/splashover at the mid morning high tide
along the south coast and midday along the eastern MA coast. A
coastal flood statement has been issued, but the storm surge is
not expected to be high enough to result in any significant
issues.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Flood Watch through late tonight for CTZ002>004.
MA...Flood Watch through late tonight for MAZ002>024-026.
Wind Advisory until 2 PM EST this afternoon for MAZ018>021.
High Wind Warning until 3 PM EST this afternoon for MAZ022>024.
RI...Flood Watch through late tonight for RIZ001>008.
Wind Advisory until 2 PM EST this afternoon for RIZ005-007-008.
MARINE...Storm Warning until 3 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ231>234.
Gale Warning from 7 PM this evening to 7 PM EST Sunday for
ANZ230.
Gale Warning until 7 PM EST Sunday for ANZ236.
Gale Warning until 7 PM EST Sunday for ANZ235-237-250-251-256.
Storm Warning until 4 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ254-255.
&&
SYNOPSIS...Frank/EVT
NEAR TERM...Frank/EVT
SHORT TERM...Frank
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...Frank/EVT
MARINE...Frank/EVT
HYDROLOGY...Frank
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...StaffHazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 228 AM EST Sat Dec 14 2019 CTZ002>004-MAZ002>017-026-RIZ001>004-006-150730- Hartford CT-Tolland CT-Windham CT-Western Franklin MA- Eastern Franklin MA-Northern Worcester MA-Central Middlesex MA- Western Essex MA-Eastern Essex MA-Western Hampshire MA- Western Hampden MA-Eastern Hampshire MA-Eastern Hampden MA- Southern Worcester MA-Western Norfolk MA-Southeast Middlesex MA- Suffolk MA-Eastern Norfolk MA-Northern Bristol MA- Northern Middlesex MA-Northwest Providence RI- Southeast Providence RI-Western Kent RI-Eastern Kent RI- Washington RI- 228 AM EST Sat Dec 14 2019 ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern Connecticut, central Massachusetts, eastern Massachusetts, northeastern Massachusetts, southeastern Massachusetts, western Massachusetts, northern Rhode Island and southern Rhode Island. .DAY ONE...Tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Flood Watch. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Flood Watch. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. MAZ022>024-150730- Barnstable MA-Dukes MA-Nantucket MA- 228 AM EST Sat Dec 14 2019 ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT... ...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeastern Massachusetts. .DAY ONE...Tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Flood Watch. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Flood Watch. High Wind Warning. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures. RIZ005-007-008-150730- Bristol RI-Newport RI-Block Island RI- 228 AM EST Sat Dec 14 2019 ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT... ...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern Rhode Island and southern Rhode Island. .DAY ONE...Tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Flood Watch. Wind Advisory. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Flood Watch. Wind Advisory. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures. MAZ018>021-150730- Western Plymouth MA-Eastern Plymouth MA-Southern Bristol MA- Southern Plymouth MA- 228 AM EST Sat Dec 14 2019 ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT... ...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeastern Massachusetts. .DAY ONE...Tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Flood Watch. Wind Advisory. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Flood Watch. Wind Advisory. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures. ANZ235-237-251-256-150730- Rhode Island Sound-Block Island Sound- Massachusetts Bay and Ipswich Bay- Coastal Waters from Montauk NY to Marthas Vineyard extending out to 20 nm South of Block Island- 228 AM EST Sat Dec 14 2019 ...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST SUNDAY... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Massachusetts coastal waters and Rhode Island coastal waters. .DAY ONE...Tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Gale Warning. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Gale Warning. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. ANZ254-255-150730- Coastal waters from Provincetown MA to Chatham MA to Nantucket MA out 20 nm- Coastal Waters extending out to 25 nm South of Marthas Vineyard and Nantucket- 228 AM EST Sat Dec 14 2019 ...STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Massachusetts coastal waters. .DAY ONE...Tonight. Hazardous weather is not expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Storm Warning. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures. ANZ250-150730- Coastal waters east of Ipswich Bay and the Stellwagen Bank National Marine Sanctuary- 228 AM EST Sat Dec 14 2019 ...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST SUNDAY... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Massachusetts coastal waters. .DAY ONE...Tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Gale Warning. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Gale Warning. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures. ANZ236-150730- Narragansett Bay- 228 AM EST Sat Dec 14 2019 ...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Rhode Island coastal waters. .DAY ONE...Tonight. Hazardous weather is not expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Gale Warning. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures. ANZ231>234-150730- Cape Cod Bay-Nantucket Sound-Vineyard Sound-Buzzards Bay- 228 AM EST Sat Dec 14 2019 ...STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Massachusetts coastal waters. .DAY ONE...Tonight. Hazardous weather is not expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Storm Warning. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures. ANZ230-150730- Boston Harbor- 228 AM EST Sat Dec 14 2019 ...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Massachusetts coastal waters. .DAY ONE...Tonight. Hazardous weather is not expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Gale Warning. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures. For the latest updates...please visit our webpage at www.weather.gov/boston You can follow us on Facebook at www.facebook.com/us.nationalweatherservice.boston.gov You can follow us on Twitter at @NWSBoston
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 high wind. Local standard time, as filed.
A wind gust to 62 mph was reported by an amateur radio operator in Nantucket at 1016 AM.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Massachusetts in 2019Every state in 2019This day in weather historyWarnings in Massachusetts, December 2019
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 868025.