High Wind in Nevada, January 17, 2019

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
207 AM PST Thu Jan 17 2019

.SYNOPSIS...A low pressure system will bring substantial moisture
to the Great Basin today and tonight. This system will produce
moderate amounts of rain and snow for much of Nevada. After a
brief break on Friday, another storm is expected to impact the
region late Sunday through Monday.

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.SHORT TERM...Today through Saturday. A relentless stream of
moisture can be seen pushing across the Sierras and into northern
Nevada this morning. Surface temperatures are above freezing most
everywhere and have been inching higher since last evening. There
is some heavy rain resulting from this moisture flow...mainly
over western Nevada...west of the LKN HSA. It is raining south of
highway 50...i.e. Ely and Tonopah. Wind gusts have become
widespread above 30 mph. The main concern...a potent low pressure
system will bring a copious amount of moisture to Nevada over the
next 24 hours. The short term models are in excellent agreement
with this next system.

Today through tonight. This will be the most active period. A low
circulation will move north along the Pacific coast and push a
shortwave through Nevada. This wave will draw in Pacific moisture
focused north of the Sierras and will deliver some sizable QPF
amounts to northern Nevada. Snow levels will be rising during the
day, so significant accumulations in the valleys are not
expected, however there will be some accumulation in snow squall
activity. Thunder snow is possible Thursday. By late afternoon,
snow level will begin to lower once again, thus all told,
elevations above 6000 feet could receive more than a foot of snow
with mountain tops receiving more than 2 feet of fresh snowfall.
Blowing snow will also drive impacts, especially along highway
overpasses along and south of highway 50 in central Nevada. High
temperatures will be in the 40s. Low temperatures will be in the
20s.

Friday. There will be some lingering showers across northern
Nevada however high pressure will bring a very short period of
generally drier conditions to start the weekend. High temperatures
will range from the 30s to around 40 degrees.

Friday night through Saturday. Another surge of moisture will
spread across northern Nevada, this time in an over-running
pattern. As the ridge axis moves over the eastern part of the
state, the moist flow aloft will ride the low-amplitude ridge
crest. Areas north of Interstate 80 will be the focus, receiving
snow to begin with, followed by a changeover to rain Saturday. High
temperatures will be in the 40s. Low temperatures will be in the
20s and 30s.

.LONG TERM...Saturday night through next Wednesday.

Broad flat ridge covers the western CONUS Saturday night and
Sunday with pieces of energy streaming across the northern border.
While much of the region will be dry Saturday night, Pacific
moisture will be increasing Sunday in advance of the next trough.
A mixture of rain and snow will be spreading over northwest Nevada
and spreading east. By Sunday night, the cold trough moves across
the region with snow levels lowering to all valley floors.
Appears much of the forecast area will receive measurable
snowfall. Expect some winter weather impacts for the latter part
of the King holiday weekend.

Pattern change undergoes a transition that favors ridge over the
eastern Pacific and deep cold trough over the central US beginning
Monday. Trough will have moved downstream over the central
Rockies, but shear axis still hangs back over Nevada, expect light
snow to persist over eastern Nevada and favored orographic areas
in northerly flow. Cold air mass will result in much lower temps
on Tuesday morning with single digits and teens expected, with
recovery into the upper 20s and 30s.

Another short wave will be approaching northeast NV on Wednesday,
but does not contain much moisture. A few flurries may be
possible on the north facing slopes over Elko county.

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.AVIATION...A warmer air mass across Nevada will allow precipitation
at all TAF locations to change to light rain. This will mitigate
the impact to VIS through early this morning with occasional MVFR
CIGs with extensive cloud cover over the state.

Impacts to aviation interests are expected today across Nevada.
The cold front will move through the state from northwest to the
southeast beginning Thursday morning near KWMC reaching KELY by
Thursday evening. Gusty south to southwest winds will continue
ahead of the front and then shift to the west after the frontal
passage. Thunderstorms are also possible near and along the cold
front as it passes through the state Thursday along with gusty
winds and the potential for brief heavy snow just after the front
passes through.

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.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory from 4 AM Thursday to 4 AM PST Friday
for Northeastern Nye County-Northern Elko County-Northern Lander
County and Northern Eureka County-Northwestern Nye County-South
Central Elko County-Southeastern Elko County-Southern Lander
County and Southern Eureka County-Southwestern Elko County-White
Pine County.

Winter Storm Warning from 4 AM Thursday to 4 AM PST Friday for
Ruby Mountains/East Humboldt Range-White Pine County.

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