Very heavy long period swell moved into the Oregon coastal waters, bringing heavy surf to the coast.
Every event with a place to put it; 2 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS MFR wrote it up.
Very heavy long period swell moved into the Oregon coastal waters, bringing heavy surf to the coast.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Medford, OR wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jan 17, 3:55 AM PST, 3 hours 55 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
355 AM PST Thu Jan 17 2019
Updated AVIATION Section
.DISCUSSION...A potent low pressure continues moving northeast off
the PacNW coast this morning and this will continue to impact the
forecast area, bringing widespread showers, with snow above 4000
feet, and gusty winds through this evening. While it will be a
breezy day today, winds overall will be weaker than what occurred
Wednesday afternoon/evening. The exception will be along the coast
and east of the Cascades. As the low continues northeast, winds
will become more onshore, bringing gusty winds along the coast
through this morning with the strongest winds expected from Cape
Blanco south. East of the Cascades, gusty south to southwest winds
will continue through this morning and gradually diminish this
afternoon. Wind headlines remain in effect for the previously
mentioned areas, and details can be found at NPWMFR.
The main front associated with this low is north and east of the
forecast area, and the area will be under a more convective
influence today. Given the convective environment, a few embedded
thunderstorms are possible in these showers along the coast, and
isolated lightning strikes have already occurred in Siskiyou and
Curry counties during the last few hours. As the flow continues to
turn more southwesterly, this will focus the greatest amount of
precipitation along the coast today. However, the northern
portions of California will continue to see moderate rainfall
today as upslope flow enhances precipitation. Snow levels will
hover around 4000 to 4500 feet today, so periods of moderate to
heavy snow are expected to continue in Siskiyou county through
this afternoon. Winter weather headlines remain in effect for
this, and details can be found at WSWMFR.
While we expect the bulk of the snow to be above 4000 feet
through today, it's possible for snow to mix down temporarily to
lower elevations under heavier precipitation. This could mean some
wintry travel along I-5 near Mt. Shasta City, including Black
Butte Summit where 2 to 3 inches will be possible through this
evening. There may be some rain/snow mix in Mt. Shasta City, but
we aren't expecting much in the way of accumulation there.
Conditions will improve later this evening with showers tapering
off and winds diminishing. We'll catch a short break tonight into
Friday morning as a brief period of riding moves through. A warm
front will nudge into the area Friday afternoon and this will be
the start of a very wet period for the forecast area. Snow levels
will rise significantly with this warm front and by Friday
evening, snow levels will jump to around 7000 to 8000 feet. The
front will stall over the area, bringing an extended period of
moderate to heavy rain, especially along the coast and western
portions of Siskiyou county. If current model total rainfall
projections are correct, flooding could be a concern during this
time period.
In addition to rainfall, another round of strong winds is possible
Friday afternoon. Gradients are favorable again for strong winds
along the coast and in the Shasta and Rogue Valleys. However,
unlike the previous system, wind alignment is less favorable for
the Rogue Valley, so wind concerns will be for the more typical
places. 700 mb winds of 50 to 60 kt lends to concerns for strong
winds east of the Cascades as well. Given the current headlines,
will let future shifts issue any necessary watches/advisories for
this time frame. /BR-y
&&
.AVIATION...For the 17/12Z TAFs...Numerous to widespread showers
will continue across the area today through this evening as low
pressure offshore sends impulses onshore. Expect a mix of IFR, MVFR,
and VFR ceilings with gusty south to southwest winds and mountain
obscuration. The freezing level will fall to around 4500 ft msl.
Winds will subside and coverage of showers will lessen overnight.
Any clearing will aid in the development of low ceilings and/or fog
in some of the western valleys by Friday morning. This may impact
Roseburg and Medford. -Spilde
&&
.MARINE...Updated 300 AM PST Thursday 17 January 2019...Extremely
dangerous seas, peaking in excess of 30 feet, will be accompanied
by south to southwest gales today. Bar crossings and the surf
zone will be very hazardous due to strong currents and breaking
waves. Winds ease tonight, but seas remain very high with
dangerous bar conditions. Yet another front is likely to bring
additional gales and very steep seas Friday into Friday night with
only slight improvement Saturday. High and steep seas then
persist through the remainder of the weekend with the pattern
remaining active.
Conditions will improve Sunday night into Tuesday as high pressure
builds over the region. -Spilde
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...Wind Advisory until 4 PM PST this afternoon for ORZ029>031.
High Wind Warning until 4 PM PST this afternoon for ORZ021-022.
High Surf Warning until 5 AM PST Friday for ORZ021-022.
CA...Wind Advisory until 4 PM PST this afternoon for CAZ084-085.
Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM PST this evening for
CAZ080-081-083.
Winter Storm Warning until 10 PM PST this evening above 5500
feet in the for CAZ082.
Pacific Coastal Waters...Gale Watch from Friday morning through late
Friday night for PZZ350-356-370-376.
Gale Warning until 4 PM PST this afternoon for
PZZ350-356-370-376.
Hazardous Seas Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 10 AM PST
Friday for PZZ350-356-370-376.
MNF/MASPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
444 AM PST THU JAN 17 2019
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1210 AM HEAVY RAIN 3 NW MOUNT SHASTA 41.35N 122.36W
01/17/2019 M2.60 INCH SISKIYOU CA TRAINED SPOTTER
MIDNIGHT TO MIDNIGHT PST TOTAL.
&&
MNFThe national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
2 high surf. Local standard time, as filed.
Buoy 46027 off of Point Saint George recorded swell sufficient to generate heavy surf with breaker heights up to 31 feet along the coast during this interval. Due to the travel time to the coast from the buoy, the heavy surf likely lasted a bit longer than recorded here.
Buoy 46027 off of Point Saint George recorded swell sufficient to generate heavy surf with breaker heights up to 31 feet along the coast during this interval. Due to the travel time to the coast from the buoy, the heavy surf likely lasted a bit longer than recorded here.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Oregon in 2019Every state in 2019This day in weather historyWarnings in Oregon, January 2019
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 793473, 793474.