High Wind in Nevada, February 2, 2019

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
231 PM PST Fri Feb 1 2019

.SYNOPSIS...A couple of winter storms moving into the region will
bring wet, windy, and then colder conditions to NV. Drier and
fair weather conditions will return to NV mid next week following
the departure of the storms.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Tuesday.

Today through Sunday. A robust storm system with ample moisture
will gradually move onshore then across NV over the weekend. This
system has ample moisture associated with it which will cause
wide spread showers across the silver state. The showers will
start in western NV late this afternoon and evening before
spreading across the entire state by Saturday morning. The
heaviest showers will cross over NV during Saturday afternoon and
evening. This system will be warm which will keep the valleys
above freezing and the showers as rain. The amount of rainfall
possible in the valleys should be between a quarter to half and
inch and possibly locally higher in spots. The snow levels will
fall towards the end of the system on Sunday morning but most of
the moisture will have departed. This should keep the valleys from
seeing accumulation of any snow beyond a dusting late on Sunday.
Elevations above 6500-7000 ft will see mainly snowfall which will
lead to significant accumulations of snow. The mountains can see
total accumulations of 8 to 18 inches with locally higher
accumulations of up to 24 inches possible. The system will also
have strong gusty winds associated with it as it translates across
NV. The winds will be strongest in central NV and elsewhere at
elevations generally above 6500 ft. The winds and the heavy
snowfall will cause hazardous travel conditions for roads in the
mountains and on passes as such a Winter Weather Advisory is
effect for elevations above 6500 ft for all of NV excluding
Humboldt County where the winds and snowfall will not be as
significant. For White Pine, southern Lander and Eureka, and
northern Nye counties a wind advisory is effect for the strong
winds which are expected to have sustained winds in the 30s mph
and gusts to 50 mph. Even in the valleys where significant
snowfall is not expected the winds will cause a travel hazard to
high profile vehicles. Both advisories will be in effect from 4 am
Saturday to 4 am Sunday . Colder temperature will accompany the
passage of the system which will see the rain gradually transition
to snowfall for the valleys on Sunday. The system will depart the
region Sunday morning which will see the showers diminish and the
winds weaken through the afternoon. This, however, is just a
brief weakening of the winter weather as another strong and moist
storm system will move into the region late Sunday.

Sunday night through Tuesday.

Another moist winter storm will translate from off the northwest
coast and through NV bringing another round of showers to the
silver state. The system will be a slower moving system which will
increase the duration of the showers across NV. This will be
coupled with the colder temperatures allowing for significant
amount of snowfall in the valleys and mountains. The heaviest
showers will be during the afternoon of Monday through the morning
of Tuesday. The valleys can receive 3 to 9 inches of snowfall
while the mountains could receive 8 to 18 inches. The amount of
snow accumulation for the valleys will general follow that higher
the valley elevation the higher the snow accumulation will be.
There are some models that show even heavier snowfall is possible
so it cant be excluded that the valleys could see above 9 inches
of snow. Strong gusty winds will also accompany the passage of
this system which will mimic the last one in which central NV and
elevations above 6500 ft will be impacted. The winds and the
snowfall are expected to cause travel impacts across NV thus an
advisory is likely in the near future. If the more moist models
and thus heavier snowfall prove correct a winter storm warning may
even be possible. The system will depart the region late on
Tuesday which will cause a gradual draw down of the moisture. This
will lead to a weakening of the showers and less accumulations of
snow through late Tuesday. The winds will also weaken with the
departure of the system starting from the north and going
southeastward. This system will be followed up by colder air with
high temperatures generally around or below freezing.

.LONG TERM...Tuesday night through next Friday.

Low pressure system/trough will progress eastward Tuesday night
into Wednesday. The attendant cold front will move into Utah
Tuesday night with a colder drier air mass settling in behind it
along with diminishing snow showers across the state. Overall,
drier and colder conditions are expected for the latter half of
next week. Another frontal system could impact the state again
FRiday or Saturday but does not appear too strong as of now.

Daytime high temperatures will struggle to reach above freezing
especially across central and northeastern NV where snowpack is
expected to be most concentrated. Low temperatures Wednesday and
Thursday night should bottom out into the single digits, perhaps
below zero, in many valleys. Overall, a colder than normal
scenario should occur for the first week of February.

&&

.AVIATION...Middle to upper level cloud cover associated with a
robust storm system will continue to filter into the state from
the west through tonight but VFR conditions will persist. Light
precipitation is expected to begin before sunrise across western
Nevada. As Saturday progresses, expect lowering CIGs along with
widespread valley rain affecting all TAF sites along with mountain
snow and enroute mountain obscurations. Winds will increase from
the south through Saturday as the storm system moves through the
region. The strongest winds will be across central Nevada with
wind gusts approaching 30-35kts at KTPH and KELY by early Saturday
afternoon. Active weather will persist through Tuesday of next
week with precipitation type changing over to all snow for all
sites Sunday night into Monday.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory from 4 AM Saturday to 4 AM PST Sunday
for Northeastern Nye County-Northern Elko County-Northern Lander
County and Northern Eureka County-Northwestern Nye County-Ruby
Mountains/East Humboldt Range-South Central Elko County-Southern
Lander County and Southern Eureka County-White Pine County.

Wind Advisory from 4 AM Saturday to 4 AM PST Sunday for
Northeastern Nye County-Northwestern Nye County-Southern Lander
County and Southern Eureka County-White Pine County.

&&

99/93/93