Avalanche and High Wind in Nevada, April 9, 2019

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
648 AM PDT Tue Apr 9 2019

.SYNOPSIS...A cold front will move through the state today
drastically changing weather conditions with rain, isolated
thunderstorms, and some valley snow with light accumulations possible
tonight. Strong winds will also arrive behind the cold front
today lasting into Wednesday. Another weather disturbance could
bring additional showery weather on Thursday.

&&

.UPDATE...A couple lightning strikes this past hour between Carlin
and Elko has prompted an update to add isolated thunderstorms
to the forecast in the morning period as the cold front moves
through.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 335 AM /

SYNOPSIS...A cold front will move through the state today
drastically changing weather conditions with rain, isolated
thunderstorms, and some valley snow with light accumulations possible
tonight. Strong winds will also arrive behind the cold front
today lasting into Wednesday. Another weather disturbance could
bring additional showery weather on Thursday.

SHORT TERM...Today through Thursday.

No real change to the short term package as the next storm
approaches. Cold front is moving into western Nevada and a band of
pre-frontal showers is currently moving through eastern
Humboldt/western Elko counties. Some instability still exists and
there were even a few lightning strikes between Ryndon and Deeth
around midnight.

Today: The cold front will pass through NV bringing colder,
wetter, and windy weather.

Weather impacts: The cold front will quickly move through
the state this morning into early afternoon. Rain and a few
thunderstorms will initially accompany the front before colder air
and falling snow levels will eventually lead to a changeover to
snow. However, the heavier precipitation will fall in the form of
rain. Light snow accumulations, generally less than an inch, are
expected in the valleys with higher amounts in mountain areas.
This event could produce up to a quarter inch of rain in some
locations.

Wind impacts: Strong post-frontal winds are the main issue with
this system. West to northwest winds will develop today and some
locations will be in the 30-40 mph range (possibly 50 in Tonopah
and Wendover) with gusts to around 60 mph. Northern Nye and
eastern Elko counties continue to be the most vulnerable so High
Wind Warnings continue. The winds will also be strong across NV
with Wind Advisories still in effect for Southern Lander and
Eureka, White Pine, and Elko counties. The strong winds will last
through Wednesday afternoon.

Temperatures: Temperatures will plummet by 20 degrees in many
locations from yesterday's highs (which were in the 70's in
spots) to Tuesday (when upper 40s to lower 50s are expected across
northern Nevada) with below normal temperatures continuing into
Wednesday. In fact, the high temperatures for today in many
places are occurring right now and will be dropping throughout the
day. Lows will drop into the 20s and 30s tonight.

Wednesday: Strong winds will continue through the afternoon hours
across NV. The winds will finally weaken during the evening
hours. There will still be some remnant showers but these should
be isolated and not result in much precipitation.

Thursday: A winter storm will move into the region bringing
further showers to NV. Since the air will be colder these showers
will mainly bring snow to the valley floors. There is not a lot
of moisture associated with this system which will help to keep
accumulations low.

LONG TERM...Thursday night through next Tuesday.

Major timing, orientation, and strength differences in the models
persists in the long term period. The main agreed upon points are
a period of unsettled, cool, periodically wet weather around the
region, with breezy conditions at times.

Rain will give way to rain/snow mix, and then snow even in valleys
around the Basin through Saturday. While by no means the latest
snowfall or even one to write home about in April, still
accumulations on valley floors on grassy areas, and some summits
will make travel inconvenient at times Friday, mainly.

Breezy at times, as models do agree on a rather tight thermal
gradient aloft, which will translate to the surface.

Some warming through the weekend and into early part of the week
but not likely to the degree we had the first week of April.

AVIATION...Significant winter-like storm system is on the doors in
western Nevada Monday night and winds will kick up during the
early Tuesday morning hours, increasing through the day and into
Tuesday evening. Winds will shift from southwest to west in the
morning and then northwest behind strong cold front in the
afternoon. Expect northwest gusts to the 30s knots in KWMC, KBAM,
and KEKO. Gusts to near 50s knots at KELY and mid 50s, possibly
near 60 knots at KTPH. Expect BLDU at KTPH reducing visibility to
MVFR at times. Winds decrease a little after 00Z Wednesday.
Precip changes from rain to rain/snow mix over northern Nevada, to
all snow in KELY, with VCSH mainly at KTPH. However, VCTS at all
airfields with attendant erratic gusts. Aircraft should probably
be garaged or anchored.

Mountains will become obscured at all sites Tuesday, and enroute
in the Great Basin.

HYDROLOGY...Melt off and precipitation is causing many creeks
and streams to run high. No significant impacts are anticipated
at this time.

The Bruneau River is running high and has quickly risen into
Minor flood stage this morning. This could impact some rural roads
and is expected to stay in the Minor flood stage at least through
today.

The Humboldt River at Battle Mountain is running high and is
experiencing a crest which is peaking below flood stage. This
crest should continue to flow downstream and arrive at Comus in
the next couple of days. The crest should remain below flood stage
there as well.

The Owyhee River at Mountain City is running high and is
approaching action stage. It will likely begin its diurnal trend
downward this morning before reaching action stage.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 11 PM PDT Wednesday
for Northern Elko County-Ruby Mountains/East Humboldt Range-
South Central Elko County-Southern Lander County and Southern
Eureka County-White Pine County.

High Wind Warning from 8 PM this evening to 5 PM PDT Wednesday
for Southeastern Elko County.

Wind Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 8 PM PDT this evening
for Southeastern Elko County.

Wind Advisory from 5 PM to 11 PM PDT Wednesday for Southeastern
Elko County.

High Wind Warning from 5 PM this afternoon to 11 PM PDT this
evening for Northeastern Nye County-Northwestern Nye County.

Wind Advisory from 2 PM to 5 PM PDT this afternoon for
Northeastern Nye County-Northwestern Nye County.

Wind Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 11 PM PDT Wednesday for
Northeastern Nye County-Northwestern Nye County.

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