Severe downburst winds occurred in Cozad on this Monday evening. Around 3 PM CST, the first thunderstorm developed near McCook.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS GID wrote it up.
Severe downburst winds occurred in Cozad on this Monday evening. Around 3 PM CST, the first thunderstorm developed near McCook. This storm was rapidly joined by other storms that formed shortly thereafter. By 5 PM CST, a line of storms had evolved from near Eustis southwest into Kansas. Other isolated storms were forming to the northeast from Litchfield to Greeley. Between 5 and 630 PM CST, the storm near Eustis moved north through western Dawson county. A downburst occurred in Cozad where winds were measured as high as 60 mph, blowing some shingles off of at least one home. By 630 PM CST, a nearly continuous line of thunderstorms extended from northwest Kansas into central Nebraska, with the northeast terminus over Valley and Greeley counties. However, those storms were not severe. The storms that developed over Valley county were stationary from 530 to 700 PM CST. The resulted in 3.80 inches of rain falling between Arcadia and North Loup.
These storms formed on the warm side of a stationary from that extended from southwest to northeast across Nebraska. The flow aloft was weak, with the main band of Westerlies over the northern United States. There was a subtle shortwave trough embedded within the flow, extending from eastern Montana to eastern Colorado. Just prior to the thunderstorm affecting Cozad, temperatures were in the middle 80s with dewpoints in the upper 60s. Despite poor mid-level lapse rates, MLCAPE was 2500-3000 J/kg. Deep layer shear was less than 20 kt.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Hastings, NE wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 1, 3:46 PM CST, 1 hour 58 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 446 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2019 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night) Issued at 445 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2019 As we wave goodbye to our truly hot and guaranteed-dry weather pattern of the past several days, we welcome in a seasonably-warm (but not excessively hot) weather pattern, along with a return of a MULTITUDE of mainly low-confidence rain/thunderstorm chances nearly every day and/or night. Focusing solely on these next 36 hours in this section, our primary focus is on the Marginal Risk of severe storms late this afternoon into late this evening across mainly the northwest half of our coverage area (CWA). Then, although we are not formally outlooked by SPC at this time for Tuesday afternoon-evening, would not be surprised to see at least small parts of the area placed under another Marginal Risk as Tuesday transitions into the "Day 1" period, as at the very least a few strong storms appear possible. In other departments, our gradual "cool-down" continues, as today has been slightly cooler than yesterday, and tomorrow should be a bit cooler than today. Taking a look at the current/recent weather scene as of 4 PM: No major surprises today versus forecasts of 12-24 hours ago, although if anything, high clouds have been a bit more prevalent/stubborn especially in our northern/western zones, which has held temps down slightly there. Overall, highs are on track to range from the low-mid 90s in most central/southern zones, to more in the way of mid-upper 80s in our far north and Dawson County area. In the mid-upper levels, water vapor satellite imagery and short term model data reveals that the expansive ridge of the past several days has been broken down/flattened, resulting in weak quasi-zonal (west-east) flow, containing subtle/embedded disturbances. At the surface, by far the main feature (and the biggest difference versus the past few days) is that the primary, slow-moving surface front that had been WELL to our north- northwest, has now neared to areas just outside our CWA, generally along an axis from northeast to southwest Nebraska. With our area still just south of this boundary, breezes today have remained southerly in most areas, with gusts commonly 15-20 MPH and occasionally 25 MPH in spots. The last several radar/satellite scans reveal at least weak thunderstorm activity underway just barely to our west in Red Willow County, and trying to drift/develop into our Furnas County area shortly. Now looking ahead forecast-wise over the next 3 night/day periods: Late this afternoon-tonight: Again, main focus is on the Marginal Risk of severe storms along/near the aforementioned surface front draped near the far northern/western reaches of the CWA. Latest mesoanalysis reveals a corridor of healthy mixed-layer CAPE (2000-2500 J/kg) near this boundary, but very weak deep-layer wind shear only around 20KT. The net result is an environment supportive of very slow moving (5-10 MPH) high-based storms, with the main threats being hail to around ping pong ball size, outflow/downburst wind gusts to around 60 MPH, and localized heavy rainfall of perhaps at least 1-2" in a few spots. Although not considered a likely threat, a brief non- supercell tornado is also not out of the question in our far west/north near the front, given the modest surface vorticity along the boundary. Although the "exact" coverage of storms in this pattern/setup is always somewhat in question, certainly the best chances (and highest PoPs) through this evening are focused in our northwest 1/4 or so (mainly NW of an Alma-Kearney-Wolbach line. That being said, IF storms are able to grow into 1 or more clusters and propagate east somewhat more efficiently along composite outflow, then it's possible that the marginal severe risk could extend as far east-southeast as roughly a Phillipsburg- Hastings-York line, but this is a fairly low probability, and in fact our forecast remains void of any thunderstorm mention through tonight for most areas southeast of that line. For sure, the main window of opportunity for severe storms should be 5 PM-midnight, although weaker storms could easily persist later into the night. Temperature-wise, nudged down lows very slightly, aiming for a range from mid 60s far west to near-70 far east. Tuesday daytime: The gradual cool-down continues. Highs were nudged down 1-2 degrees from previous, and perhaps not enough in some spots, but have most Nebraska zones aimed into the 84-89 range, and any low 90s mainly confined to KS zones. The real question mark for the day, however, is our coverage of showers/storms. The aforementioned front currently just to our northwest is actually expected to stall out in/near our northern zones. Although flow aloft remains quite weak, there are signs of at least a few subtle disturbances working through, especially one approaching our west in the afternoon. The net result is that while PoPs have been held no higher than 30-50 percent during the day, there is likely a better chance of at least hit-and-miss storm activity compared to the daytime hours today. Although a fair amount of cloud cover could stick around much of the day, it looks like another day of decent instability/weak shear, so at least a few strong, if not marginally-severe storms can be ruled out again. Although convection could obviously modulate the wind fields, very generally speaking, expect most of the area to see a southerly to southeasterly breeze around 10 MPH. Tuesday evening/night: Get used to hearing this a lot in the coming days, but it's going to prove difficult to have much confidence in rain/thunderstorm beyond the first 24 hours in this type of pattern. In short, have blanketed broad 20-40 percent chances/PoPs across the entire CWA, as again, at least limited hit-and-miss activity appears possible almost anywhere. Low temps should be similar to tonight, with most of the CWA settling somewhere into the 65-70 range. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday daytime through Monday) Issued at 445 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2019 General overview of these 6 days (including Independence Day): Precipitation/thunderstorms: This forecaster wishes he had more time today to go into a bit more detail here, but quite honestly, going into detail in this type of fairly persistent, quasi- zonal/weakly- forced, summer upper air pattern often proves somewhat futile, especially in terms of precipitation chances. Although we realize it may come across as an "easy way out" to some reading this, our forecast literally contains at least a small chance of thunderstorms for at least some portion of the CWA during EVERY SINGLE day/night period. We know based on climatology alone that MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY MOST OF THE TIME, however, with so much subtle forcing around, it is almost impossible to find forecast periods that we can confidently say are "guaranteed dry" (and thus the multitude of low Pops). At least for now (very subject to change) our overall- highest PoPs are focused around the Friday night time frame, when both the ECMWF/GFS show a somewhat stronger surface front and slightly- enhanced forcing coming into play. Time will tell. As for severe storm chances, while nothing looks widespread/obvious, surely some strong to marginally-severe storms will likely occur from time to time. Temperatures: Fortunately, confidence (as usual) is higher in temperature trends. In short, simply expect very "typical" summer weather, with highs mainly ranging anywhere from the low 80s to low 90s in most areas on most days, and any possible mid-upper 90s most favored in our KS zones. Compared to the previous forecast, the single-biggest chance (although not a "huge" one) was that highs for Friday were raised 2-4 degrees. In fact, for those with Independence Day interests, Thursday-Friday (the 4th-5th) are looking like the overall-warmest of these 6 days, with highs in most Neb zones a few degrees either side of 90, and more so mid 90s in KS zones (along with Furnas County area). On the flip-side, the overall- coolest days VERY PRELIMINARY looks like Sunday (low 80s most areas except mid 80s southwest). Wrapping up with some comments specifically regarding Thursday afternoon-evening (Independence Day): Despite the broad coverage of mainly 20-30 percent rain/thunderstorm chances in our going forecast, DO NOT hit the panic button yet on outdoor activities! While these low chances are obviously there for a reason, current/early indications tend to suggest that the better chances for evening storms would tend to favor northern/western Nebraska (outside our CWA) more so than our local domain. Stay tuned for a gradually-higher-confidence message as Thursday approaches. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 18Z Tuesday) Issued at 101 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2019 Confidence is extremely high in VFR ceiling/visibility through at least these first 6 hours (and probably more so the first 9+). Confidence remains fairly high in VFR through the remainder of tonight-Tuesday morning, but at least low-end chances for thunderstorms/rain showers return anytime after 03Z tonight, thus making it more difficult to completely "guarantee" VFR. Speaking of these storm chances, they are low enough/uncertain enough that will only maintain a generic "vicinity" (VCTS) mention for now, but IF any storms do move in from the west-northwest later this evening they could be strong to severe, with the main threat being gusty/erratic winds. As for winds (and NOT accounting for any possible thunderstorm outlow influences), the overall-steadiest breezes will focus right away this afternoon (generally southerly 10-15KT/gusts 15-20KT). Then tonight into Tuesday morning, expect a lighter wind regime (mainly at-or-below 10KT), which could feature some directional variability. On one last note: will forego any formal mention of low level wind shear (LLWS) tonight, as it appears weaker than previous nights, and likely more focused slightly east-southeast of the terminals. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...None. && SHORT TERM...Pfannkuch LONG TERM...Pfannkuch AVIATION...Pfannkuch
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Hastings NE 344 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2019 KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087- 021200- Phillips-Smith-Jewell-Rooks-Osborne-Mitchell-Valley-Greeley-Nance- Sherman-Howard-Merrick-Polk-Dawson-Buffalo-Hall-Hamilton-York- Gosper-Phelps-Kearney-Adams-Clay-Fillmore-Furnas-Harlan-Franklin- Webster-Nuckolls-Thayer- 344 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2019 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south central Nebraska and portions of north central Kansas. .DAY ONE...Late This Afternoon and Tonight. Through later this evening, there is a Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms across much of the outlook area, with the overall- greatest risk focused mainly northwest of a line from Alma, to Grand Island, to Genoa Nebraska. The primary threats with any severe storms will be hail up to around ping pong ball size, and wind gusts to around 60 MPH. Localized heavy rainfall in excess of 1 inch could also occur, mainly due to very slow movement of storms. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday. Nearly every day and night through the next week features at least a small chance of thunderstorms somewhere in the outlook area. Early indications suggest that one of the better chances for more widespread activity might occur around Friday night, but this is still subject to some uncertainty. As for thunderstorm intensity, although there are currently no highly-evident risks for severe storms, it is likely that at least a few strong storms will occur from time to time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation may be needed through later this evening on a localized basis, primarily northwest of a line from Alma, to Grand Island, to Genoa Nebraska. && More information may be obtained at the following web page: https://www.weather.gov/hastings Pfannkuch
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Hastings NE
614 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2019
NEZ060-072-020000-
Dawson NE-Gosper NE-
614 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2019
...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN DAWSON COUNTY UNTIL
700 PM CDT...
At 614 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Eustis, or 18 miles west of Lexington, moving northeast at 10 mph.
Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.
Locations impacted include...
Cozad, Willow Island and Farnam.
LAT...LON 4092 10021 4083 9980 4066 9993 4064 9998
4070 9998 4070 10022 4090 10023
TIME...MOT...LOC 2314Z 211DEG 7KT 4074 10009
HeinleinThe North Platte radar (KLNX), 132 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 23:45 UTC.
1 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
A 60 MPH wind gust was measured by a personal weather station located 1 mile north-northeast of Cozad. In town, some shingles were blown off of a roof. Pea size hail was also reported.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Nebraska in 2019Every state in 2019This day in weather historyWarnings in Nebraska, July 2019
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 835556.