Excessive runoff into the Ottawa River Basin in Canada restricted the outlet of Lake Ontario. This combined with above normal precipitation into the Lake Ontario Basin, record levels on the Great Lakes above Lake Ontario, and higher than normal flows into the lake from the Niagara River pushed the lake to well above normal levels.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS BUF wrote it up.
Excessive runoff into the Ottawa River Basin in Canada restricted the outlet of Lake Ontario. This combined with above normal precipitation into the Lake Ontario Basin, record levels on the Great Lakes above Lake Ontario, and higher than normal flows into the lake from the Niagara River pushed the lake to well above normal levels. Over the course of July, water levels began to slowly recede, however after starting the month about 5.5 feet above low water datum, the lake only fell to just below 5 feet above low water datum over the entirety of the month.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Buffalo, NY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jun 30, 9:21 PM EST, 2 hours 39 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 1021 PM EDT Sun Jun 30 2019 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will bring dry and comfortable weather tonight into Monday. Warmer and humid weather will return by late Monday night into Tuesday along with the chance of some showers and thunderstorms. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... An upper level low will track across northern Quebec and into the Canadian Maritimes tonight. Mostly clear skies and lowering dewpoints will allow for good radiational cooling and bring a chilly start for the first morning of July, especially across the Southern Tier and interior sections of the North Country where temperatures may drop into the mid 40s. Temperatures elsewhere will lower into the upper 40s to mid 50s. There could be some patchy fog particularity in the favored river valleys. Monday looks to be an ideal summer day with high pressure riding over the area. Comfortable humidity levels with some increase in clouds late in the day. High temperatures ranging from the upper 70s to lower 80s. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Monday night the ridging that supplied our region with a nice day on Monday will begrudgingly slide off to our east...with the next weak mid-level shortwave trough and its associated surface trough then passing through our region. The 12z/30 suite of guidance has once again slowed down the eastward progression of all these features... with most packages now bringing the shortwave/surface trough through our area between 06z and 12z Tuesday...or some 6 hours slower than what was seen at this time yesterday. Have correspondingly adjusted the forecast to account for this later timing. Still appears that enough forcing and moisture will be available for a round of scattered to numerous showers...with these more numerous south of Lake Ontario where the ingredients for these will be maximized. There may also be a few embedded thunderstorms as well given the presence of some weak instability...with the best chances for these again found south of Lake Ontario. Otherwise it will be a notably warmer and more humid night...with overnight lows ranging from around 60 east of Lake Ontario to the mid 60s along the Lake Erie lake plain...and surface dewpoints climbing to a little below these levels. As we move into Tuesday...things unfortunately appear to be trending more unsettled. Whereas the past couple of days have shown high pressure building into the area and providing our region with a mainly dry day...the 12z NAM/GFS/ECMWF have all trended notably weaker with this feature...while also trending more robust with a series of weak shortwave impulses riding southeastward across our region...along the northern periphery of a building upper level ridge over the southern two thirds of the CONUS. Coupled with daytime heating and the formation of lake breeze boundaries...these features will probably be enough to trigger the development of some additional scattered convection south of Lake Ontario...particularly during the midday and afternoon hours. Given all this and our previous continuity of a largely dry forecast...have had little choice but to introduce some low-mid range chance PoPs for areas south of Lake Ontario. Otherwise temps aloft will climb a degree or two Celsius on Tuesday... which in turn will again support above-guidance highs in the lower 80s in many locations...with a few of the warmer spots across western New York possibly reaching the mid 80s. It will also become noticeably more humid as surface dewpoints climb into the mid 60s and lend a decidedly more summery feel to our airmass. Looking out through the rest of this period...it still appears all but certain that a broad subtropical ridge will strengthen its grip across the southern two thirds of the nation...with its northern periphery edging northward across the Ohio Valley and into the southern Great Lakes. A surface warm front snaking its way northeastward along the northern edge of this feature will combine with additional subtle and hard-to-time shortwave impulses riding around the periphery of the upper ridge to bring a continued potential for convection to areas south of Lake Ontario throughout this period...with this likely maximized during the afternoon and evening hours of each day when available instability will be maximized...and when the activity may get an added mesoscale boost from developing lake breeze boundaries. With this in mind...have maintained chance PoPs to account for this. Meanwhile east of Lake Ontario relatively dry conditions should persist through Wednesday...with lower- end convective chances then possibly arriving during Thursday. Aside from this...this period will continue to feature steadily building heat and humidity levels...with afternoon highs climbing into the mid-upper 80s and dewpoints rising to downright sultry levels of around 70 degrees by the time we reach the Independence Day holiday. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... The upper level pattern will continue to feature an anomalously strong ridge over AK with weak troughing further to the east, along with a slightly anomalous ridge over the Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean. The other feature of note will be a slow moving upper level low currently over the Pacific Northwest Territories. With light flow aloft over much of the eastern US through the week, this feature will ever so slowly move east through the Canadian Provinces. Eventually however, it should have some effect on WNY weather. Initially however, the broad subtropical SE US ridge will be the dominant feature with midsummer heat and humidity Thursday night through Friday. The above mentioned trough however will have a surface reflection, and this will move through toward the region by the end of the week, perhaps Friday or Friday night at this distant viewpoint. Will therefore place the highest chance for showers and thunderstorms into this time frame (currently hedging toward peak heating on Friday). With a post frontal passage, one would expect a period of drier weather, in this case just in time for the weekend, but with the relatively light flow, timing at this stage could easily be off by a day. Meanwhile, there are still some notable differences in timing systems that follow into the weekend, with some runs of the GEFS notably wetter than the high-and-dry ECMWF runs. Will therefore keep a chance of showers and thunderstorms in the forecast, but with a nod to the EC and surrounding offices for collaboration purposes. Daytime temperatures at least should be a little lower when compared to the end of the week, with highs in the upper 70s to near 80, while dewpoints should be similarly lower by about 5-10 degrees. && .AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Upper low departing into the Canadian Maritimes tonight. Skies will clear off and winds will lighten this evening. Patchy fog should develop late tonight, especially in the river valleys and may impact KJHW after 07z. VFR conditions continue into Monday. Outlook... Monday Night...MVFR with thunderstorms. Tuesday through Thursday...VFR with a chance of thunderstorms. && .MARINE... Northwest winds will taper off and become light tonight. Favorable boating conditions are expected Monday with light winds and low wave action as a surface high pressure moves over the eastern Great Lakes. Looking further out, there will be an absence of any significant pressure system move through the region, resulting in winds remaining below 15 knots through next week. Thunderstorms will have the highest impact on the lakes, with a chance of thunderstorms existing for each day in the Tuesday through Friday time frame. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...None. MARINE...None. && SYNOPSIS...TMA NEAR TERM...HSK/TMA SHORT TERM...JJR LONG TERM...Zaff AVIATION...HSK/TMA MARINE...HSK/TMA
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Buffalo NY 449 AM EDT Sun Jun 30 2019 NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085-010900- Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis- Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-Livingston-Ontario-Chautauqua- Cattaraugus-Allegany-Southern Erie- 449 AM EDT Sun Jun 30 2019 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western and north central New York. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf LEZ020-040-041-LOZ030-042>045-062>065-SLZ022-024-010900- Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor- Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk- Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo- Lower Niagara River- Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach- Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay- Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay- Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River- Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach- Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay- Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay- Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River- Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg- Saint Lawrence River from Ogdensburg to Saint Regis- 449 AM EDT Sun Jun 30 2019 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the New York waters of Lake Erie, Lake Ontario, and the Saint Lawrence River. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
7 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in New York in 2019Every state in 2019This day in weather historyWarnings in New York, July 2019
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 868162, 868164, 868165, 868166, 868167, 868168, 868169.