High Wind in Montana, January 2 to 3, 2019

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Billings MT
933 AM MST Wed Jan 2 2019

.UPDATE...
No significant changes made for the morning update. Wind is the
word for the next few days. Still a slight chance of cold air
drainage from Big Horn Basin affecting Billings...so keeping
forecast highs under guidance somewhat. BT

&&

.SHORT TERM...valid for Tdy and Thu...

Upper-level flow will turn from northwesterly today and tonight to
westerly Thursday into Thursday night. These flow patterns support
continued dry weather with the main surface impacts coming in the
form of wind.

As the upper flow turns more northwesterly then westerly, surface
pressures east of the higher terrain will decrease (lee
troughing), which will do two things: (1) increase downsloping
winds over central areas, contributing to a warming trend, and (2)
strengthen the sea-level pressure gradient between the ID/WY
border and central Montana, contributing to strong winds in the
western foothills and northward to the Harlowton area.

The sea-level pressure gradient is projected to favor strong
winds (gusts of 58 mph or greater) in the Livingston, Big Timber,
and Nye areas through Friday, and through mid-day Thursday for
Harlowton. Have replaced the Winter Weather Advisory with a Wind
Advisory for the Livingston area and Beartooth foothills and a
High Wind Warning for northern Sweet Grass and southern Wheatland
Counties for the expected strong winds. Some blowing and drifting
snow is still possible through about mid-afternoon today (before
temperatures rise above freezing and snow begins to melt), but
given recent good visibility observations have decided to
emphasize the strong winds more. Winds may slacken a bit this
afternoon as the SLP gradient relaxes a little but should
strengthen again this evening as the gradient tightens.

High temperatures will generally be in the 30s today
and 30s and lower 40s on Thursday. Looks like we will have at
least two more days with cold air draining out of the Bighorn
basin, causing a corridor of cooler air from eastern Carbon Co.
north/northeastward through much of Yellowstone Co. RMS

.LONG TERM...valid for Fri...Sat...Sun...Mon...Tue...

A quiet extended forecast period. Stronger winds die off on Friday
but enough downslope remains to keep the forecast mainly dry
despite a good push of moisture and energy moving in off the west
coast late weekend into early next week. Best chance for a snow
shower for the lower elevations will be Sunday into Monday, but
latest ensemble guidance keeps this potential very low. Western
mountains will have off an on snow shower potential through the
period, mainly on west facing slopes (Cooke City). Temperatures
start out in the 40s for Friday, dropping back into the 30s for
the weekend as winds weaken. Next chance for a push of cold air
looks to be next Thu/Fri. Chambers
&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail today. Gusty winds southwest of
Billings will bring up to 55kts along with the possibility of
reduced visibilities to under 6 miles at times due to blowing
snow through tonight for KLVM and K6S0. Carrothers
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Tdy Thu     Fri     Sat     Sun     Mon     Tue
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 033 026/038 029/044 026/040 026/041 026/041 028/045
    0/Q 00/N    00/N    00/B    10/B    11/B    11/B
LVM 036 027/042 028/044 027/043 029/042 028/042 032/046
    0/Q 00/N    00/N    01/N    11/N    11/N    11/N
HDN 039 020/043 022/045 020/041 021/042 022/042 023/045
    0/U 00/B    00/B    00/B    00/B    11/B    11/B
MLS 035 024/042 028/044 022/040 022/039 022/040 023/042
    0/U 00/B    00/B    00/B    00/B    01/B    00/B
4BQ 037 021/040 024/041 022/039 022/038 022/038 023/040
    0/B 00/B    00/B    00/B    00/B    01/B    01/B
BHK 035 023/044 027/045 023/041 022/038 022/040 022/041
    0/N 00/B    00/B    00/B    00/B    00/B    00/B
SHR 042 017/044 022/049 021/043 021/044 020/043 021/048
    0/U 00/B    00/B    00/B    00/B    01/B    10/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...High Wind Warning in effect until noon MST Thursday FOR ZONE
      28.
     High Wind Warning in effect until 5 AM MST Friday FOR ZONE
      41.
     Wind Advisory in effect until 5 AM MST Friday FOR ZONES
      65-66.
WY...None.

&&

weather.gov/billings

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Billings MT
417 AM MST Wed Jan 2 2019

MTZ065-066-021230-
Livingston Area-Beartooth Foothills-
417 AM MST Wed Jan 2 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of south central
Montana.

* WHAT...Dangerous cross winds.

* WHERE...Along the western foothills from Livingston to Nye.

* WHEN...today through Friday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Wind gusts to 55 mph are expected today.
  Wind gusts of 55 to 65 mph are expected tonight through Friday. A
  Wind Advisory has been issued for strong winds through 5 AM MST
  Friday.

* BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW...Through this afternoon, areas of
  blowing snow could reduce visibility, and rural roads may become
  drifted over.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Cross winds will be hazardous for those traveling in high profile
vehicles on I-90 in the Livingston to Big Timber corridor. It is
advised to delay travel or use an alternate route.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
709 AM MST WED JAN 02 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0120 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST 2 SSW BIG TIMBER        45.81N 109.98W
01/02/2019  M59.00 MPH       SWEET GRASS        MT   AWOS

0140 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST 2 SSW BIG TIMBER        45.81N 109.98W
01/02/2019  M60.00 MPH       SWEET GRASS        MT   AWOS

0340 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST 2 SSW BIG TIMBER        45.81N 109.98W
01/02/2019  M59.00 MPH       SWEET GRASS        MT   AWOS

&&

CARROTHERS