A changeover from light rain to light freezing rain occurred over the northwestern half of the region as an upper level low pressure system moved across the Southern Plains.
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The episode as NWS FWD wrote it up.
A changeover from light rain to light freezing rain occurred over the northwestern half of the region as an upper level low pressure system moved across the Southern Plains.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Fort Worth, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jan 2, 5:52 AM CST, 2 hours 8 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 552 AM CST Wed Jan 2 2019 .AVIATION... /12Z TAFs/ Sub-optimal flying conditions are expected through the entirety of this TAF cycle, with low MVFR to IFR CIGs continuing. All North Texas TAF sites are sitting at MVFR, and will likely remain in that category until better lift arrives later this morning. Rain is expected to continue, with a decrease in CIGs to IFR by mid morning. For KAFW and KFTW, light freezing rain is occurring as temperatures hover between 30-31 degrees. This is expected to continue through 16Z as temperatures remain below freezing. After 16Z, above freezing temperatures end the threat for additional freezing precipitation. IFR has now invaded Waco, and will continue through this evening as rain continues to fall. The shortwave responsible for this rain will move to the east this evening, decreasing precipitation chances and improving CIGs ever so slightly into the low MVFR category. As one round of rain moves out, the next one will approach the region by the early morning hours on Thursday. This will lead to additional rain chances, low ceilings, and the potential for a period of rain/snow mix. Given this is out of the current TAF cycle, this will be further assessed through the day and addressed in subsequent forecasts. Hernandez && .SHORT TERM... /Issued 434 AM CST Wed Jan 2 2019/ /Today and Tonight/ Summary… No changes were made to the existing winter weather advisory. Ice accumulations within the advisory will range from .01” on the eastern extent, to around .05” on the western extent. Additionally, rain and isolated thunderstorms will continue across Central Texas through the morning. Freezing rain threat will linger through the day across portions of North Texas before the rain/freezing rain transitions to snow across the far western counties late tonight. Freezing Rain Threat… As the upper level system makes it way closer to North and Central Texas, isentropic ascent and moisture content has been increasing, leading to the development of showers across the region. The shallow layer of cold air continues to be confined to the lowest 1500 feet of the atmosphere, with about 8000 feet of above freezing temperatures atop the cool air. Given the shallow depth of the cold air, forecasting the response of the surface temperature as precipitation begins to fall becomes especially difficult. Add a densely populated area with many bridges and overpasses, and forecasting the impacts adds yet another layer of complexity. The freezing line is now draped from Bonham to Denton to Fort Worth to Lampasas, and with nothing to push this line further east/southeast, the expectation is that temperatures will not change much between now and 10AM. Having said that, many locations are flirting around the freezing mark, and a degree can make a difference on whether or not the rain will freeze on contact. For that reason, we urge you use caution if you are anywhere within the Winter Weather Advisory. Locations that are at or below 30 degrees while precipitation is falling will likely begin to see a glaze of ice covering exposed surfaces. Although ice accumulations will remain light, any ice can be problematic to untreated surfaces. The highest ice accumulations are likely to remain west of a Stephenville to Goldthwaite line, where up to .05” of ice are possible given the temperatures remaining below 32 degrees for a longer duration. As the bulk of the precipitation moves overhead, the rain will help to increase temperatures slightly above freezing by this afternoon for most locations, leading to a cold rain for most. After sunset, temperatures will once again fall below freezing across the Winter Weather Advisory, leading to yet another period of light freezing rain for areas west of a Gainesville to Comanche line. Heavy Rain Threat… The appreciable isotropic ascent overspreading the region will lead to periods of moderate to heavy rain across Central Texas and the Brazos Valley. Given the rain is expected to fall over the course of the next 18 hours, the decision was made to not issue a Flood Watch. If any water issues arise, they would be limited to poor drainage, low lying areas, and this can be handled with shorter fused flood products. The batch of precipitation will move to the east as the shortwave continues on its eastward movement. Then we turn our attention to the next source of lift associated with the cut-off low barreling in from the west. As temperatures aloft begin to cool, a transition from freezing rain to a freezing rain/snow mix will begin early Thursday morning west of a Graham to Comanche line. Accumulations prior to 6 AM are unlikely as snowfall rates will remain low. Hernandez && .LONG TERM... /Issued 434 AM CST Wed Jan 2 2019/ /Thursday Onward/ Confidence continues to increase regarding the potential for some accumulating snow in parts of North Texas on Thursday. Otherwise, some persistent rainfall may lead to nuisance flooding or rises on rivers and streams across our southeastern zones by late Thursday. By daybreak Thursday, the deep upper low should be located across West Texas, centered near Lubbock. Very strong ascent ahead of this feature will see a continued increase in precipitation through the morning hours while temperatures hover just below freezing across our western zones, and in the mid to upper 30s elsewhere. Periods of freezing rain are expected to impact the morning commute within the Winter Weather Advisory area throughout this time period. Lapse rates will steepen sharply through the mid-levels via adiabatic cooling from dynamic ascent, thus a more convective presentation of precipitation is likely with this Thursday morning wave. In fact, some lightning strikes certainly cannot be ruled out, but have not included a mention in the forecast just yet. Some ice accumulations of around 0.1" will be possible. The upper low is forecast to dig east/southeast into North Texas throughout the day on Thursday while intensifying slightly in the process. The projected trajectory of the low has become increasingly favorable for a transition to a rain/snow mix or to entirely snow across portions of North Texas, possibly as early as mid-morning. As strong ascent continues to overspread the area, the resultant mid-level cooling will act to eliminate the above- freezing warm nose, and the column should cool entirely below freezing across our northern and western zones before midday. As a result, the transition from rain or freezing rain to snow should occur throughout this time period. On Thursday afternoon, this transition zone should continue to move eastward into the I-35 corridor, and east of I-35 by Thursday evening. Meanwhile, much of Central Texas will begin to become dry-slotted by late morning or early afternoon, so warmer temperatures (40s) and mostly dry conditions will likely prevail across our southern and southwestern zones by mid afternoon. This scenario essentially is a textbook snow setup with the only caveat being the slightly warm surface temperatures (largely in the mid 30s). A well-defined TROWAL wrapping around the western side of the mid-level low circulation will supply decent moisture content to the subfreezing portion of the storm system. Saturation should be present to at least -10 to -15 deg C, more than sufficient for ice within the dendritic growth zone. In addition, very strong isentropic ascent and steep lapse rates of as much as 7-8 C/km will contribute to fairly widespread precipitation in the low's northwestern quadrant. Also, some weakly negative EPV values will exist within an area of strong mid-level frontogenesis across our far northwestern zones, which may allow for more of a banded heavy precipitation structure, with possibly even some embedded convective elements. Essentially all four of the GFS, NAM, ECMWF, and CMC agree with this general setup for Thursday, but remain fairly different regarding QPF/precip accumulation fields. While the ECMWF is the driest solution, an examination of isentropic charts leads one to quickly dismiss its QPF forecast, as it lingers very strong ascent, steep lapse rates, and modest but sufficient moisture across North Texas throughout the day. The ECMWF QPF forecast seems much too low given these considerations. The only real difference between this an and the NAM/GFS wetter solutions is the presence of greater mid-level moisture. As a result, have leaned heavily on the NAM for general trends and accumulations given what has been a successful performance with handling this system thus far. It's worth noting that the 06z NAM is even more aggressive than the 00z run in terms of amounts and accumulations due to its even farther southward projection of the upper low. Have continued to make slow refinements to the forecast, but some larger adjustments may be necessary in subsequent updates. So, while some snowfall is expected in parts of North Texas, the potential for significant accumulations remains uncertain. It is expected that surface temperatures will warm at least into the mid or even upper 30s during the day while snow is falling, which would generally act to limit accumulations except on elevated or grassy surfaces. As discussed previously, if a band of heavier snow or some convective snowfall was to materialize, a burst of heavy snow could lead to accumulations rather quickly with >1" per hour rates. At this time, at least some minor accumulations are expected to occur in an area north of I-20 and west of I-35 with some totals as high as 1-3 inches possible. The Winter Weather Advisory will be maintained in its current configuration to account for this potential. If models continue to trend colder with temperatures or deeper with the upper low, these amounts may need to be increased across our northwest. Areas north of a Comanche to Denton to Sherman line remain under the greatest risk of accumulating snow through Thursday. In addition to the areas discussed above, it's likely that some snow will be observed farther south and east as the main core of the low tracks overhead later Thursday afternoon through Thursday night. At least a rain snow mix is possible in the immediate DFW area, but temperatures are still progged to be in the mid to upper 30s while any snow would fall, limiting the potential for accumulations and impacts. It's even possible that some snow flurries may mix with lingering sprinkles of rain as far south as Waco before precipitation comes to an end there on Thursday afternoon, although no mention has been included in the forecast there for now. A rain snow mix will likely continue across our northeastern zones through Thursday night, where above-freezing surface temperatures should continue to limit accumulation potential. The upper low will finally depart the region by daybreak Friday, bringing precipitation chances to an end in the morning. In the wake of our winter weather extravaganza, much warmer and mild weather conditions will return on Friday as skies clear from southwest to northeast. An anomalously strong upper ridge will build across the Southern Plains over the weekend, leading to the return of above-normal temperatures. A fast-moving upper disturbance will then act to flatten the ridge late in the weekend and early next week which will pull moisture back northward, resulting in increasing clouds and some rain showers late Sunday into Monday. -Stalley && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 37 34 38 34 55 / 90 60 90 50 5 Waco 38 35 43 34 58 / 90 70 90 10 5 Paris 38 35 40 35 53 / 90 80 90 70 10 Denton 35 32 37 32 55 / 80 60 90 50 5 McKinney 37 33 38 33 54 / 90 70 90 50 5 Dallas 38 35 39 34 55 / 90 70 90 50 5 Terrell 40 36 41 35 55 / 90 80 90 40 5 Corsicana 40 37 42 34 54 / 90 90 90 20 5 Temple 38 34 45 34 58 / 90 80 90 5 5 Mineral Wells 34 31 38 30 55 / 70 70 90 30 5 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST today for TXZ118-133. Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST Friday for TXZ091>093- 100>103-115>117. Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST Thursday for TXZ129>132- 141>143. && 08/26
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 446 AM CST Wed Jan 2 2019 TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-031100- Montague-Cooke-Grayson-Fannin-Lamar-Young-Jack-Wise-Denton-Collin- Hunt-Delta-Hopkins-Stephens-Palo Pinto-Parker-Tarrant-Dallas- Rockwall-Kaufman-Van Zandt-Rains-Eastland-Erath-Hood-Somervell- Johnson-Ellis-Henderson-Comanche-Mills-Hamilton-Bosque-Hill-Navarro- Freestone-Anderson-Lampasas-Coryell-Bell-McLennan-Falls-Limestone- Leon-Milam-Robertson- 446 AM CST Wed Jan 2 2019 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for North and Central Texas. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight. Light freezing rain is possible west of a line from Bonham to Fort Worth to Lampasas through this morning. Ice may accumulate on roadways in this region, particularly on bridges and overpasses. While mostly rain is expected this afternoon due to slightly warmer temperatures, additional freezing rain will develop in the same area tonight as temperatures fall back below freezing. Some heavy rainfall is possible southeast of a Temple to Canton line through tonight which may aggravate ongoing flooding of rivers, creeks, and streams. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday. Periods of freezing rain will be possible west of a line from Bonham to Denton to Lampasas on Thursday morning. Light ice accumulations are possible in this area which could result in travel impacts. Rain and freezing rain will transition to snow or a rain/snow mix in this area through the morning hours before expanding eastward towards the I-35 corridor by midday. Snow may continue to mix with rain across parts of North Texas through Thursday afternoon or evening. Some snow accumulations may occur generally northwest of a Cisco to Gainesville line, and amounts as high as 1-3 inches may be possible. While some snow is possible across the rest of North Texas as well, surface temperatures are expected to be too warm for substantial snow accumulations. The lingering rain/snow mix will taper off from west to east late Thursday night. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
3 winter weather. Local standard time, as filed.
A social media report indicated accidents and road closures near the Interstate 35 West and North Loop 820 interchange in Fort Worth, TX due to light ice accumulations.
Amateur radio reported five one-hundredths of an inch of ice accumulated on elevated surfaces just west of the city of Granbury, TX.
Broadcast media reported eight one-hundredths of an inch of ice accumulated on elevated surfaces northwest of the city of Stephenville, TX.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Texas in 2019Every state in 2019This day in weather historyWarnings in Texas, January 2019
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 801549, 801551, 801552.