Thunderstorms developed during the afternoon of Tuesday July 16th across southern Minnesota. A few storms developed over the Twin Cities metro area and produced torrential rainfall, and flash flooding around the west, and southwest side of the downtown Minneapolis area.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS MPX wrote it up.
Thunderstorms developed during the afternoon of Tuesday July 16th across southern Minnesota. A few storms developed over the Twin Cities metro area and produced torrential rainfall, and flash flooding around the west, and southwest side of the downtown Minneapolis area.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Twin Cities, MN wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 16, 2:55 PM CST, 57 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 355 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2019 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night) Issued at 300 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2019 Short term concerns remain convective trends through the period. Severe threat along with possible flash flood threat as well mainly Wednesday afternoon/evening. Iowa MCV has developed convection along a weak leftover boundary over southern MN. Outflow from the established convection is lifting across the southern portion of the metro and could work into the metro this evening. Will have to keep a small PoP and mention coverage term for isolated/scattered wording through this evening. Expect this activity to wane through about 03z. Overall 12Z HIRES models and latest available HRRR continue to show development of another complex over South Dakota this evening and racing to southwest MN by 12z WED. Will follow that trend for now and hopefully see a decreasing trend or drop the complex dropping farther to the south and exit the CWA during the morning. Then redevelopment and location where this will take place remains the main challenge. Will hold onto the high end PoPs from the NBM especially Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night. It will all depend on what develops convectively overnight. The 12Z ECMWF holds off on overall development until the actual upper trough moves in late Wednesday afternoon/Wednesday night. Also, held onto the severe wording across the southern CWA for mainly Wednesday afternoon/night. Heavy rain/flash flood threat remains and will also depend on where significant boundaries develop/remain so have opted to forgo a flash flood watch for the CWA at the moment. Strong lift and impressive moisture transport moving across the area with PW's nearing 2 inches should still produce significant rainfall rates, most likely 3-4 inches an hour once again. Any overnight complex should exit to the east Wednesday night, taking the severe/heavy rain threat with it. .LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 253 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2019 Hot and humid weather will continue through the end of the work week, with Friday still looking to be the hottest day of the week. By Thursday, the upper trough will have lifted north of the area. A strengthening west to east jet will lift slightly north and allow the thermal ridge to begin expanding northward across the area. Southwesterly flow will persist Thursday and highs around 90 degrees with dew points climbing into the 70s will make for another hot day. The thermal ridge axis looks to move through late Thursday night through Friday morning. Continued SSW flow will bring slightly higher dew points northward with most guidance suggesting mid-70s are reasonable. Temperatures in the lower 90s still look on track, so heat index values should exceed 100 degrees during the day Friday. For this weekend, Saturday looks to be the best chance to be dry for most, although isolated thunder is possible given the unstable airmass in place. A decent upper trough looks to drop in from the northwest as the main upper jet streak shifts east of the Great Lakes, which would bring our best chance for storms along an approaching cold front as early as Saturday night. This cool front will drop through overnight and lead to a cooler trend into early next week. High pressure will build in from Canada behind the front, with dew points likely falling into the 50s and daytime highs maxing out in the 70s for the most part, but a few 80 degree readings will be possible. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon) Issued at 1235 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2019 Scattered convection expected over south central MN associated with weak surface boundary and north of the MCV riding across Iowa. The front is forecast to sag slowly south into the evening. At the moment, mention VCTS at KMKT and KEAU as the northern extent of possible thunder. Could see complex over South Dakota ride into western MN probably after 09z or so and mentioned that possibility at KAXN/KRWF for now. Will continue overall VFR trends with possible MVFR conditions developing after 12z Wed to the west. Confidence is low enough to not include this issuance. KMSP... Convection expected to remain south of the filed this afternoon. Otherwise VFR trend continues until possible Wed afternoon. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ Wed night...VFR/MVFR with TSRA likely. Winds SE 10 kts. Thu...VFR. Winds light and variable. Fri...VFR. Isolated TSRA. Winds SW 5 kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. MN...None. && SHORT TERM...DWE LONG TERM...SPD AVIATION...DWE
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 1225 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2019 MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028- 171730- Douglas-Todd-Morrison-Mille Lacs-Kanabec-Stevens-Pope-Stearns- Benton-Sherburne-Isanti-Chisago-Lac Qui Parle-Swift-Chippewa- Kandiyohi-Meeker-Wright-Hennepin-Anoka-Ramsey-Washington- Yellow Medicine-Renville-McLeod-Sibley-Carver-Scott-Dakota- Redwood-Brown-Nicollet-Le Sueur-Rice-Goodhue-Watonwan-Blue Earth- Waseca-Steele-Martin-Faribault-Freeborn-Polk-Barron-Rusk- St. Croix-Pierce-Dunn-Pepin-Eau Claire- 1225 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2019 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central and southern Minnesota...and west central Wisconsin. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight Scattered thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon and evening, mainly south of the Minnesota River Valley. Additional thunderstorms are possible overnight tonight, mainly west of Interstate 35. A few of the strongest storms this afternoon and tonight could be severe with large hail and damaging wind gusts being the primary threats. Locally heavy rainfall is possible with any of the thunderstorms. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms Wednesday and Wednesday night, with large hail, damaging wind gusts, and isolated tornadoes possible. Locally excessive rainfall is also a possibility with thunderstorms Wednesday and Wednesday night. There is a chance for additional thunderstorms from late Thursday though the weekend, with a few severe storms possible over that time period along with locally heavy rainfall. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SKYWARN spotter activation may be needed over south central Minnesota this afternoon.
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 153 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2019 MNC013-162015- Blue Earth- 153 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2019 ...URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING EXPECTED... Thunderstorms with heavy rain will cause minor flooding in the following counties... Blue Earth... * Until 315 PM CDT. * At 151 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain due to thunderstorms. This will cause urban and small stream flooding in the area. One to one and half inches of rain has already fallen, on top of saturated ground from yesterday's storms. Storms will slowly move east of the area by 2:45 pm. * Some locations that will experience flooding include... Mankato, North Mankato, Eagle Lake, St. Clair, Good Thunder and Skyline. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles. Please report flooding to your local law enforcement agency when you can do so safely. && LAT...LON 4421 9386 4405 9384 4400 9410 4414 9411 CCS
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 352 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2019 MNC053-123-162215- Hennepin-Ramsey- 352 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2019 ...URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING EXPECTED... Thunderstorms with heavy rain will cause minor flooding in the following counties... Hennepin...Ramsey... * Until 515 PM CDT. * At 351 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain due to thunderstorms. This will cause urban and small stream flooding in the area. Around one inch of rain has already fallen. * Some locations that will experience flooding include... Minneapolis, St. Paul, Maplewood, Roseville, Falcon Heights, Lauderdale, Univ Of Mn Minneapolis Campus, South Minneapolis and Mn State Fair. Additional rainfall of 1 to 2 inches are expected over the area with this stationary thunderstorm. This additional rain will result in minor flooding. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Excessive runoff from heavy rainfall will cause flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses as well as other drainage areas and low lying spots. && LAT...LON 4501 9309 4493 9309 4492 9328 4500 9328 BORGHOFF
Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 450 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2019 MNZ060-162215- Hennepin- 450 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2019 ...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EAST CENTRAL HENNEPIN COUNTY... At 450 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over St. Louis Park, or near Minneapolis. The storm is nearly stationary. Winds in excess of 40 mph and dime size hail are possible with this storm. Locations impacted include... Minneapolis, Plymouth, Minnetonka, Edina, St. Louis Park, Golden Valley, Hopkins, Wayzata and Medicine Lake. Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways. LAT...LON 4501 9334 4493 9329 4489 9346 4499 9349 TIME...MOT...LOC 2150Z 084DEG 3KT 4496 9339 BORGHOFF
The Minneapolis radar (KMPX), 24 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 21:49 UTC.
4 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Flash flooding occurred on the westbound lane of I-394, near Penn Avenue. Flood waters were up to 2 feet deep.
Numerous roads were flooded in the Uptown area of Minneapolis. Social media pictures indicated flood waters, nearly 3 feet high around the area.
Flash flooding with up to two feet of water on Lake Street near Lake Calhoun.
Flash flooding, with water up to two feet deep, occurred near I-94, and I-35W.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Minnesota in 2019Every state in 2019This day in weather historyWarnings in Minnesota, July 2019
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 827221, 827225, 827222, 827223.