A warm front lifted into the Northland on the 2nd with an area of low pressure then moving along the front into the next day. This led to a long duration event across the area.
Every event with a place to put it; 1 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS DLH wrote it up.
A warm front lifted into the Northland on the 2nd with an area of low pressure then moving along the front into the next day. This led to a long duration event across the area. Snow fell across area with the highest amounts being reported in the northern reaches of the forecast area. Unfortunately, snowfall reports were hard to come by where the heaviest snow was seen on radar due to it being in a very low population area.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Duluth, MN wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 3, 3:56 PM CST, 4 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
356 PM CST Sun Feb 3 2019
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 356 PM CST Sun Feb 3 2019
Heavy snow over northern Minnesota tonight with a mix of snow and
freezing rain farther south. Ice accumulation over portions of
northwest Wisconsin between one-tenth and one-quarter inch are
expected.
A winter storm will move through the Northland tonight and Monday
followed by a surge of Arctic air Monday night. Main focus during
the short term involves the precipitation types and amounts with
the storm. A shortwave trough and associated lobe of vorticity
will move across North Dakota tonight and into northern Minnesota
and northwest Ontario Monday. Meanwhile a jet streak will eject
out of the Central Plains and phase with a jet streak over Ontario
tonight and Monday. The shortwave trough will support a 700 mb
low passing eastward along the International Border and was
responsible for a broad area of snow from eastern Montana to
eastern North Dakota this afternoon. This area of snow will spread
over northern Minnesota this evening. Meanwhile the southern jet
streak will support a strengthening surface low over northeast
Kansas in the vicinity of a baroclinic zone which stretched from
Nebraska to central Upper Michigan this afternoon. Near and north
of the front over northern Wisconsin, isentropic forcing for
ascent will thicken the low-level stratus over the area this
evening. Forecast soundings support drizzle, freezing drizzle, and
fog from central Minnesota east into northwest Wisconsin. The
stratus layer is forecast to be thicker than last night, which
resulted in widespread freezing drizzle from the I-35 corridor
eastward.
Have adjusted the start times and segments for the winter weather
headlines to better reflect the onset of precipitation this
evening and to group similar precipitation regimes and totals
together.
Large-scale forcing for ascent will increase across the area
overnight. Rain and snow rates will tick upward as well with the
period of heaviest precipitation between 06Z and 18Z. Warm air
advection ahead of the surface low over northern Wisconsin will
result in freezing rain slowly changing to snow tonight and Monday
morning. And we expect one-tenth to one-quarter of an inch of ice
accumulation from southern Aitkin county east over much of
northwest Wisconsin. Contemplated upgrading Price and Iron
counties to an Ice Storm Warning. Held off for now due to
uncertainty in how warm temperatures will be this evening and the
amount of precipitation before 06Z. Northern Price and southern
Iron county are right on the cusp of one-quarter inch of ice
accumulation. Overnight snow accumulation of 2 to 5 inches is
expected from northern Cass County to northern St. Louis County
with lower totals farther south.
Precipitation will wind down from southwest to northeast Monday
and portions of the Arrowhead may see light snow showers linger
into the evening. Another surge of Arctic air will move in behind
the departing low for Monday night. Light lake effect snow showers
are possible in the northern Wisconsin snowbelt areas Monday
night and early Tuesday. Overnight lows will dip to 0F to -15F.
.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 356 PM CST Sun Feb 3 2019
Tuesday morning will be dry with high pressure drifting nearby.
In the afternoon, light snow is expected to spread into the area
from the southwest. This is in response to several pieces of
energy in the southwest flow aloft moving into the region. Timing
differences amongst the models and used a blend for onset and
location. The parade continues Tuesday night, with a bit more
moisture to work with. Some light accumulations are possible. A
long wave trof moves into the Rockies on Wednesday which increases
the southwest flow. A few more pieces of energy lift through the
region, maintaining the chance of snow. The long wave trof moves
out into the Plains on Thursday. Instead of pieces of energy, an
elongated area of vorticity moves around the base of the trof and
into the forecast area. Some light accumulations are possible. The
long wave trof moves into the region Thursday night, while the
best forcing begins to move off to the east. Pops will decrease
from west to east through the night. Late Thursday night, the
surface flow turns northwesterly, which would signal some lake
effect snow potential. However, ice coverage along the south shore
has increased and will limit the probability of lake effect snow.
The long wave trof departs allowing upper level and surface
ridging to move into the region Friday and Saturday. Temps will be
below normal through the long term.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1131 AM CST Sun Feb 3 2019
Widespread IFR conditions, with pockets of MVFR, at the start of
the forecast. There will be little change to these conditions
through the rest of the forecast. Areas of BR, along with a wintry
mix of precipitation types, at all terminals. Only INL is
expected be all snow through the forecast. Cigs may improve to
MVFR by the late Monday morning.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 12 14 -8 10 / 100 100 10 20
INL 0 1 -15 5 / 100 100 10 10
BRD 13 15 -10 10 / 100 100 0 30
HYR 23 25 -3 15 / 100 100 10 30
ASX 20 21 -1 13 / 100 100 40 20
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Winter Weather Advisory from 9 PM this evening to noon CST
Monday for WIZ001>004-006>009.
MN...Winter Weather Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 3 PM CST
Monday for MNZ012-019>021.
Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST Monday for MNZ018-025-026.
Winter Weather Advisory from 9 PM this evening to noon CST
Monday for MNZ033>038.
Winter Storm Warning until 3 PM CST Monday for MNZ010-011.
LS...None.
&&
SHORT TERM...Huyck
LONG TERM...GSF
AVIATION...GSFHazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED National Weather Service Duluth MN 1208 PM CST Sun Feb 3 2019 MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-033>038-WIZ001>004-006>009-041130- Koochiching-North St. Louis-Northern Cook/Northern Lake- North Itasca-Central St. Louis-Southern Lake/North Shore- Southern Cook/North Shore-North Cass-South Itasca-South Cass- Crow Wing-Northern Aitkin-South Aitkin-Carlton/South St. Louis- Pine-Douglas-Bayfield-Ashland-Iron-Burnett-Washburn-Sawyer-Price- 1208 PM CST Sun Feb 3 2019 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and Tonight A winter storm system will bring freezing rain and snow to the Northland tonight into Monday. Freezing rain will develop this evening across northwest Wisconsin and portions of east-central Minnesota, mainly Pine County and south. Meanwhile, snow will spread across north-central and central Minnesota from the west this evening. The snow will intensify later tonight as it continues to spread east into the Arrowhead, and the freezing rain in northwest Wisconsin will transition to snow. Up to a quarter inch of ice accumulation is forecast from freezing rain across northwest Wisconsin, with the greatest accumulation near Price County. Snow accumulation by 6 AM Monday morning will range from 2 to 5 inches in north-central Minnesota to a dusting up to 2 inches elsewhere. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday Snow continues Monday and will end from southwest to northeast during the morning and early afternoon. Total snow accumulation will range from 5 to 8 inches is forecast over north-central Minnesota to 1 to 3 inches over much of northwest Wisconsin and the I-35 corridor. A winter system crosses the forecast area Tuesday bringing a few inches of snowfall across northwest Wisconsin with lighter accumulations in northeast Minnesota. Wind chills may be cold enough for advisories on Tuesday and Friday morning. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Snow spotters are requested to report precipitation type, and measurements of snow or ice accumulations to the National Weather Service. Spotters and the public can also report precipitation type with the free M-PING smartphone app. Huyck More information may be obtained at the following web address: http://www.weather.gov/duluth (all lower case)
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 heavy snow. Local standard time, as filed.
A snowfall report of 8 was received from a trained spotter in Crane Lake.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Minnesota in 2019Every state in 2019This day in weather historyWarnings in Minnesota, February 2019
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 806963.