Heavy rain of two to three inches from thunderstorms caused flash flooding over portions of Marquette County by the afternoon of the 30th.
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The episode as NWS MQT wrote it up.
Heavy rain of two to three inches from thunderstorms caused flash flooding over portions of Marquette County by the afternoon of the 30th.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Marquette, MI wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Sep 30, 4:26 AM EST, 1 hour 34 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Marquette MI 526 AM EDT Mon Sep 30 2019 .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) Issued at 526 AM EDT MON SEP 30 2019 WV imagery and RAP analysis indicated a mid/upper level trough over the western CONUS and a ridge over the southeast resulting in sw flow from the central Plains to the northern Great Lakes. At the surface, s to se flow was increasing between a 997 low pres over south central South Dakota and a ridge from Quebec into New England. A 30-40 knots 850 jet and associated 300k-310k isentorpic lift suppported a large are of shra/tsra with some heavy rain from northern MN into nw WI. Although the heavier rain remained south of Upper Michigan moderate rain with some embedded thunder was spreading into the west. Today, expect the stronger tsra and higher rainfall amounts to remain west of Upper Michigan in line with the focus of the low level jet and higher MUCAPE values into the 1k-2k J/Kg range. However, portions of the west may see some rainfall amounts into the 1.00-1.50 range as PWAT values climb well above normal to around 1.5 inches. Otherwise, the strong WAA and moisture advection pattern will support shra and a few tsra spreading across the rest of Upper Michigan this morning with a diminishing trend this afternoon as the pcpn moves off to the northeast. The clouds may thin enough so that WAA will help push temps into the lower 70s west. and mid to upper 60s over the east. Tonight, as the low moves from nrn MN into northern Ontario, it will drag a cold front through Upper Michigan. Although mid level forcing will be weak, low level conv near the front may still be enough to support sct shra/tsra by late evening into the overnight. With fprecast CAPE values still in the 1000-1500 and 0-6km shear values of 35-45 knots, some strong storms may be possible. However, the greater chance for severe storms may remain to the south near the higher instability. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 349 AM EDT MON SEP 30 2019 This period starts off with an exiting wave and associated low pressure system continuing to lift out of the Great Lakes region NE towards James Bay. The cold front from this system will remain just to our south, stalled out with a ridge of high pressure controlling the SE CONUS. This sfc trough and thermal boundary will become the focal point for an axis of heavy precipitation through the middle of the work week. Although clouds will stay around, Wednesday afternoon looks to be dry at the moment for the UP, with models beginning to converge on another wave of precipitation moving in late Wednesday night into Thursday morning. High pressure pushes in from the west quickly for Friday morning, which should keep things dry into Saturday. Models suggest another chance for precipitation Saturday night into Sunday as another low pressure system passes just to the north through Canada. Look for another high pressure system to be over the Northern Plains to start the week next Monday. Starting off on Tuesday, low pressure continues to move NE into Quebec. A trough extending SW from the low and a passing cold front are expected to cross Upper Michigan early in the day before stalling out across mid to southern Wisconsin thanks in part to a ridge of high pressure across the SE CONUS. Early in the morning on Tuesday, ahead of the cold front, around 500 J/kg of CAPE will be across south-central UP, so have included a small chance of thunder in the forecast to account for that. Overall, models suggest a broad area of Q-vector conv across the CWA, with a good consensus of PWATs up near 1.5 inches across the southern UP with around an inch throughout the northern portions. Sounding profiles north of a line from IMT to ESC suggest an elevated layer of dry air after the fropa. Have tried to keep PoPs in line with this idea, keeping some likelys in southern Menominee County, decreasing into chance rather quickly into Dickinson and Delta Counties. NBM may keep too much PoPs across northern Upper Michigan Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, but with that axis remaining just to our south, felt fine leaving slight chances. Generally, the best chances Tuesday into Wednesday morning will stay across the southern most portions of Upper Michigan. Upper Michigan should see a brief dry period Wednesday afternoon before the large trough that is currently over the western CONUS finally progresses eastward, reaching the Northern Plains on Wednesday afternoon. This shortwave will eject across the Upper Great Lakes region, bringing a good amount of PVA and q-vector conv with it. There won't be any chance for moisture return prior to the arrival of this wave with PWAT values on the order of 0.50 to 0.75 inches. With a high pressure system following right behind, this should be a bit more of a progressive system with the best chances between 06 and 15Z Thursday. Behind this shortwave, 850 temps fall between -2 and -4C with winds becoming NW. Have left residual PoPs downwind of Lake Superior to account for lake-effect rain. A ridge of high pressure moves into the region quickly behind the Thursday shortwave bringing some return SW flow. This switch should cut off any residual lake-effect rain, clouds, mist, etc. by Friday morning. There is a decent chance for some frost Thursday night into Friday morning with low temperatures expected right around freezing in the western interior portions of Upper Michigan. Expect a drier air mass to move into the region with this high pressure system with dew points into the 30s. Skies will begin to clear through Friday, leading to some clearing Friday night along with another chance at frost for Friday night. On Saturday, WAA ahead of the next shortwave will moderate temps back into the mid to upper 50s, but will also be accompanied by another chance at rain. Fairly decent agreement among the GFS/EC/GEM in terms of timing, but quite the different outcomes in terms of QPF. Current guidance shows rain moving in after 00Z Sunday, progressing quickly across Upper Michigan, and drying out by Sunday afternoon. For now have left chance PoPs through the duration of Sunday to account for shifting model guidance. Look for high pressure to move into the region Monday afternoon, bringing some drier conditions to start the next week. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night) Issued at 127 AM EDT MON SEP 30 2019 Expect MVFR conditions to lower to IFR overnight into Mon morning as isolated showers this evening give way to more widespread rain showers and possibly a few thunderstorms as a warm front approaches the region. IFR to LIFR conditions are possible for awhile this evening at KCMX under an upslope/onshore easterly flow. It also looks like there will be a period of LLWS late tonight into Mon morning as a low-level jet max moves across the area. Widespread showers will become isolated from the west as the warm front begins to lift north of the area. However, IFR to MVFR cigs will linger as abundant low-level moisture persists across the region. && .MARINE...(For the 4 AM Lake Superior forecast issuance) Issued at 526 AM EDT MON SEP 30 2019 A strong low pressure system will move toward northwest Ontario supporting SE winds in the 20-30 knot range into this afternoon over eastern Lake Superior, highest downwind from Whitefish Bay. Winds will diminish back to 10-20 knots later today but will again increase to 20-30 knots late tonight into Tuesday from the w to Winds will generally drop to 20 knots or less for Wednesday into Thursday. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None. && SHORT TERM...JLB LONG TERM...JAW AVIATION...Voss MARINE...JLB
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Marquette MI 443 AM EDT Mon Sep 30 2019 MIZ001>007-009>014-084-085-010845- Keweenaw-Ontonagon-Northern Houghton-Baraga-Marquette-Alger-Luce- Gogebic-Iron-Dickinson-Menominee-Delta-Southern Schoolcraft- Southern Houghton-Northern Schoolcraft- 443 AM EDT Mon Sep 30 2019 /343 AM CDT Mon Sep 30 2019/ This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western Upper Michigan and central Upper Michigan. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight There is a chance for thunderstorms today through tonight. Some storms may produce gusty winds, small hail, and locally heavy rainfall. There is a moderate swim risk for Lake Michigan beaches in Schoolcraft County today. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday There is chance for thunderstorms Tuesday morning across south- central Upper Michigan. Northwest winds gusting up to 30 knots across eastern Lake Superior on Tuesday will build waves up to 8 feet. This may lead to minor beach erosion and lakeshore flooding across eastern Alger County and Luce County. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... The need for weather spotter reports is not anticipated at this time. LSZ162-240>251-263>267-010845- Lake Superior west of a line from Saxon Harbor WI to Grand Portage MN beyond 5NM-Saxon Harbor WI to Black River MI- Black River to Ontonagon MI- Ontonagon to Upper Entrance of Portage Canal MI- Upper Entrance of Portage Canal to Eagle River MI- Eagle River to Manitou Island MI- Manitou Island to Point Isabelle MI- Point Isabelle to Lower Entrance of Portage Canal MI- Lower Entrance of Portage Canal To Huron Islands MI Including Keweenaw and Huron Bays-Huron Islands to Marquette MI- Marquette to Munising MI-Munising to Grand Marais MI- Grand Marais to Whitefish Point MI- Lake Superior from Saxon Harbor WI to Upper Entrance to Portage Canal MI 5NM off shore to the US/Canadian border including Isle Royale National Park- Lake Superior from Upper Entrance to Portage Canal to Manitou Island MI 5NM off shore to the US/Canadian Border- Lake Superior West of Line from Manitou Island to Marquette MI Beyond 5NM from shore- Lake Superior East of a line from Manitou Island to Marquette MI and West of a line from Grand Marais MI to the US/Canadian Border Beyond 5NM from shore- Lake Superior from Grand Marais MI to Whitefish Point MI 5NM off shore to the US/Canadian border- 443 AM EDT Mon Sep 30 2019 /343 AM CDT Mon Sep 30 2019/ This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Eastern Lake Superior...Central Lake Superior and Western Lake Superior. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight There is a chance for thunderstorms today and again tonight across Lake Superior. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... The need for weather spotter reports is not anticipated at this time. LMZ221-248-250-010845- Green Bay North of line from Cedar River MI to Rock Island Passage-Seul Choix Point to Point Detour MI- 5NM East of a line from Fairport MI to Rock Island Passage- 443 AM EDT Mon Sep 30 2019 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Northern Lake Michigan. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight There is a chance for thunderstorms today and again late tonight. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday There is a chance for thunderstorms Tuesday morning. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... The need for weather spotter reports is not anticipated at this time. JAW
The Marquette radar (KMQT), 10 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 11:00 UTC.
1 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Heavy rain of two to three inches caused minor street flooding and ponding of water from Marquette's Trowbridge Park west to Ishpeming and National Mine on the afternoon of the 30th.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Michigan in 2019Every state in 2019This day in weather historyWarnings in Michigan, September 2019
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 854798.