A low pressure system lifting across northern Lake Michigan produced moderate to heavy snow over portions of west and central Upper Michigan from the 9th into the morning of the 10th.
Every event with a place to put it; 5 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS MQT wrote it up.
A low pressure system lifting across northern Lake Michigan produced moderate to heavy snow over portions of west and central Upper Michigan from the 9th into the morning of the 10th.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Marquette, MI wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Dec 9, 5:52 AM CST, 8 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
652 AM EST Mon Dec 9 2019
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 505 AM EST MON DEC 9 2019
WV imagery and RAP analysis indicated a mid/upper level trough from
Hudson Bay into the Dakotas. 700-300 mb qvector conv and a baroclinic
leaf IR satellite signature was noted ahead of a shrtwv through the
central Dakotas that supported an expanding area of snow from northern
and central MN into nw WI and western Lake Superior. Areas of fzdz
persisted overnight supported by low level (280k) isentropic lift.
As deeper moisture moves into northern Upper Michigan, the fzdz has
become mixed more with snow at times. Untreated roads across the
area will remain slippery this morning.
Today, models suggest that an impressive band of 800-600 mb fgen
will develop and spread through mainly the western portions of Upper
Michigan that will support moderate to heavy snow. As winds back
from ne to north and 850 mb temps drop from -10C to -17C,
additional lake enhancement will also boost snow totals. Since
overall amounts through this evening could approach 8 inches today
from near IWD to Bergland and White Pine, the advisory was upgraded
to a warning. Farther east, the snow should mainly increase during
the afternoon with snowfall amounts should still remain in the
advisory range from the Keweenaw through north central Upper
Michigan. Expect amounts through this evening from 4 to 7 inches
with SLR values in the 15/1 to 20/1 range. Over the south and east,
fzdz will linger through much of the morning before the deeper
moisture and snow arrives. Even though snow amounts from IMT to ESC
and ISQ should only amount to 1 to 3 inches, the advisory remains in
effect for the impacts of the mixed precipitation.
Tonight, expect a transition to pure LES overnight as the deeper
moisture and large scale lift exit the region. Cyclonic low level
flow this evening with 850 mb temps in the -14C to -18C range will
favor moderate to briefly heavy LES or lake enhanced snow for north
wind favored areas this evening. SLR values should exceed 20/1 as a
greater portion of the DGZ will be in the convective layer. Winds
will then back to nw overnight with additional CAA dropping 850
mb temps to -20C. An influx of drier air with lowering inversion
heights will limit snowfall amounts.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 329 AM EST MON DEC 9 2019
Flow becomes highly amplified through the first half of the week as
troughing becomes established across the central and eastern parts
of the CONUS, ushering in brief shot of bitter cold, arctic air as
the main trough continues to push eastward through mid-week. This
cold snap doesn't appear to be long-lived, with temperatures
gradually warming towards the end of the week as return flow
develops ahead of a developing low-pressure system. Plenty of winter
weather will accompany this cold air outbreak, along with the chance
for a few shots of widespread snow later in the week/weekend.
Tuesday through Wednesday night - The main forecast concerns are
lake-effect snow showers that will move in and out of the northwest
to west wind snow belts and the Arctic air mass that will track
across the region. During this time period, an anomalously strong (2-
4+ SDs) area of high pressure will accompany the arctic air mass as
it drops south across the Upper-Mississippi Valley and lower Great
Lakes, with 850mb temperatures falling into the -20 to -25C degree
range at times. Tuesday, we're looking at highs in the single digits
across the interior west and teens elsewhere. However, a secondary
shortwave arriving on Wednesday will usher in the coldest air during
this outbreak, pushing daytime highs down into the single digits
across much of the area. Locations that see more lake-effect clouds
across the Keweenaw and out east may not feel the full brunt of the
single digits. As for overnight lows during this time period, cloud-
free areas will likely see temperatures drop of very quickly into
the -10 to -15 degree range, especially across the interior west and
central. Again, areas over the Keweenaw Peninsula and out east will
be slightly warmer, with lows near zero. If those temperatures
weren't cold enough, the colder air working across the region will
bring breezy conditions at times, meaning it will feel much colder.
Still some details to work out and fine-tune in regards to wind and
potential impacts on temperatures from lake-effect clouds in some
spots, but it does appear that wind chills may reach the -15 to
-30F range Wednesday morning. The -30F wind chills do not appear
to be widespread at the moment, but certainly looks like much of the
interior west and central will see wind chills in the -20 to -25F
range Wednesday morning. Wednesday wind chills will improve somewhat
during the day, but due to breezy winds look to remain below zero.
Another result of of the bitter cold will be the arrival of moderate
to at times heavy lake-effect snow Tuesday through Wednesday night.
With a couple shortwaves moving across the region during this time
period, especially the stronger wave arriving on Wednesday, the lake-
effect snow showers will meander between the northwest to west wind
snow belts. Particularly, locations around/north of the Porkies and
around/east of Munising look to see the best chance for long periods
of persistent snow showers. As for snowfall amounts during this time
period, it's difficult to say given the complex nature of the lift
going in and out of the DGZ and varying inversion heights. Wouldn't
be surprised if a few locations pick up around a foot when all is
said and done, with higher confidence in locations that see the
persistent, heavier snow showers. The complicating factor with cold
air outbreaks like this is that when we start to see 850mb
temperatures approach the -20 to -25C+ thresholds, the DGZ thins and
a lot of the lift is focused above that DGZ sweet spot for efficient
snow production. So, we tend to see small dendrites and lower SLRs
as a result. Looking at the current data and forecast soundings,
locations out east look to see the best chance at seeing heavy lake-
effect snow, as the colder air is arrives a bit later on and allows
for more focus lift through the DGZ Tuesday/Tuesday night. Now, for
areas that may not get into the heavier lake-effect snow this
doesn't mean there won't be impacts. The smaller snowflakes will
likely cause sharply reduced visibilities, along with blowing snow
as well.
Thursday through Friday - The lake-effect snow shuts down as return
flow develops ahead of an approaching wave from the west on
Thursday, and then another stronger waves digging out of the Rockies
Friday into Saturday. These separate waves will bring chances for
additional widespread snow. Did not make any adjustments to NBM PoPs
that far out given the model uncertainty in the overall strengthen
of these waves. The return flow will put us back into a warming
trend though, with day time highs warming back up into the teens/20s
on Thursday, and then 30s by Friday.
Upcoming Weekend - The stronger wave progged to move across the area
into Saturday looks to continue it's track into Ontario. Models
aren't in great agreement with this wave, with the GFS being the
strongest and showing the potential for some heavier snow wrapping
back around the surface low. Still too much uncertainty that far
out, especially given the ECMWF and Canadian are far less
impressive. However, behind this wave another shot of colder air
will drop south in its wake towards the second half of the weekend.
This air mass doesn't appear to be as strong with 850mb temperatures
dropping to around -10 to -15C, but should still allow for lake-
effect snow to develop across parts of the Lake Superior snowbelts.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 650 AM EST MON DEC 9 2019
Lingering fzdz mixed with snow is expected at KSAW through mid
morning before the precipitation changes over to all snow. Moderate
to occasionally heavy snow will spread into the west this morning
and into KSAW this afternoon that will result in IFR conditions
with the potential for periods of LIFR vsby. After the widepsread
snow moves out this evening, lake effect snow showers will
continue overnight with mainly MVFR conditions and some ocnl IFR
vsby with any heavier bands.
&&
.MARINE...(For the 4 AM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 329 AM EST MON DEC 9 2019
Northeast winds between 20 and 30 knots, with the strongest winds
expected to funnel down the western arm of the lake into the Duluth
area will linger through the morning hours today. By mid-day, winds
remain 20 to 30 knots, but become northerly as a low pressure system
tracks lifts northeast across lower Michigan. As this low tracks
over Lake Huron tonight, Arctic air will begin to spill across the
lake with north to northwest winds between 20 and 30 knots and a few
gale gusts to 35 knots. The beginning of this colder air mass will
allow moderate freezing spray to develop and linger today/tonight.
Expect this colder, more unstable airmass to linger across the lake
through mid-week. Tuesday through Wednesday, winds will meander back
and forth between west and northwesterly, between 20 and 30 knots. A
few gale force gusts to 35 knots are possible, especially Tuesday
night through Wednesday as cold air advection strengthens across the
Upper Great Lakes. As the colder air streaming across the region
strengthens Tuesday through Wednesday, moderate freezing spray will
linger, becoming heavy Tuesday night through Wednesday.
Winds diminish by Thursday morning to speeds generally between 15 and
25 knots, and linger through Friday backing southerly as high
pressure moves over the area. Warmer air moves back into the region
as well, shutting down any freezing spray threats.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for MIZ001-
003>006-084.
Winter Storm Warning until 10 PM EST /9 PM CST/ this evening for
MIZ002-009.
Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ this evening
for MIZ010>013.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...Ritzman
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...RitzmanHazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Marquette MI 444 AM EST Mon Dec 9 2019 MIZ001>007-009>014-084-085-100945- Keweenaw-Ontonagon-Northern Houghton-Baraga-Marquette-Alger-Luce- Gogebic-Iron-Dickinson-Menominee-Delta-Southern Schoolcraft- Southern Houghton-Northern Schoolcraft- 444 AM EST Mon Dec 9 2019 /344 AM CST Mon Dec 9 2019/ This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western Upper Michigan and central Upper Michigan. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight Ongoing lingering freezing drizzle early this morning will cause a light glaze of ice in spots. Light to moderate snow then moves in and lingers through this evening. Locally heavier snow is expected across far western Upper Michigan through this evening. See the latest Winter Weather Message for further details. Waves building upwards of 8 to 10 feet along the tip of the Keweenaw Peninsula and locations east of Marquette to Grand Marais may cause minor beach erosion tonight. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday Moderate to possibly heavy lake effect snow is expected for the west to northwest wind lake effect snow belts Tuesday into early Thursday. Wind chill values may drop into the -10 to -25 range Tuesday night into Wednesday morning and again Wednesday night as a very cold Arctic airmass moves into the region. Waves building upwards of 10 to 12 feet on Wednesday mainly east of Munising over to Whitefish Point may cause minor lakeshore flooding and beach erosion concerns. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Weather spotters are encouraged to submit reports of hazardous conditions from freezing drizzle or reports of moderate to heavy snow to the National Weather Service in Marquette. The public may also submit reports via our webpage, Facebook page, or on Twitter using #906wx. LSZ162-240>251-263>267-100945- Lake Superior west of a line from Saxon Harbor WI to Grand Portage MN beyond 5NM-Saxon Harbor WI to Black River MI- Black River to Ontonagon MI- Ontonagon to Upper Entrance of Portage Canal MI- Upper Entrance of Portage Canal to Eagle River MI- Eagle River to Manitou Island MI- Manitou Island to Point Isabelle MI- Point Isabelle to Lower Entrance of Portage Canal MI- Lower Entrance of Portage Canal To Huron Islands MI Including Keweenaw and Huron Bays-Huron Islands to Marquette MI- Marquette to Munising MI-Munising to Grand Marais MI- Grand Marais to Whitefish Point MI- Lake Superior from Saxon Harbor WI to Upper Entrance to Portage Canal MI 5NM off shore to the US/Canadian border including Isle Royale National Park- Lake Superior from Upper Entrance to Portage Canal to Manitou Island MI 5NM off shore to the US/Canadian Border- Lake Superior West of Line from Manitou Island to Marquette MI Beyond 5NM from shore- Lake Superior East of a line from Manitou Island to Marquette MI and West of a line from Grand Marais MI to the US/Canadian Border Beyond 5NM from shore- Lake Superior from Grand Marais MI to Whitefish Point MI 5NM off shore to the US/Canadian border- 444 AM EST Mon Dec 9 2019 /344 AM CST Mon Dec 9 2019/ This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Eastern Lake Superior...Central Lake Superior and Western Lake Superior. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday A few west gales to 35 knots are possible Tuesday and Tuesday night. Northwest gales look likely on Wednesday, especially across the east half of the lake. See the latest Open Lake Forecast for details. As the colder push of Arctic air arrives Tuesday night through Wednesday, widespread heavy freezing spray looks to develop. See the latest Open Lake Forecast for details. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... The need for weather spotter reports is not anticipated at this time. LMZ221-248-250-100945- Green Bay North of line from Cedar River MI to Rock Island Passage-Seul Choix Point to Point Detour MI- 5NM East of a line from Fairport MI to Rock Island Passage- 444 AM EST Mon Dec 9 2019 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Northern Lake Michigan. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... The need for weather spotter reports is not anticipated at this time. Ritzman
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
3 winter weather, 2 winter storm. Local standard time, as filed.
There was a public report of nearly a foot of snow in approximately 15 hours near Bessemer.
The observer eight miles north of Mass City measured nearly 10 inches of snow in 12 hours.
Snowfall totals over a 24-hour period included 11 inches in Painesdale, nearly 10 inches in Twin Lakes and 8 inches in Houghton.
Observers measured 8 inches of snow in Herman and 6.4 inches of snow in Watton over a 24-hour period.
Snowfall totals over an approximate 18-hour period included from 7 to 8 inches in Marquette to nearly 9 inches in Harvey.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Michigan in 2019Every state in 2019This day in weather historyWarnings in Michigan, December 2019
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 867385, 867386, 867528, 867529, 867524.