Blizzard in Alaska, December 9 to 15, 2019

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
202 PM AKST Mon Dec 9 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Winds will be our primary concern over the next 24 hours. A
strong low pressure system with high pressure over the Beaufort
Sea will cause strong winds across a wide swath of northern
Alaska into Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Overall the models initialize well and are in good agreement
through the middle of the week with the placement of the main
synoptic scale features. There are still some differences between
the models in terms of the strength of the low moving through the
Bering Sea over the next 24 hours. The GFS has much stronger wind
near the low than the NAM. We used a blend of the NAM the ECMWF
and the GFS for our forecast products today, with the GFS the most
heavily weighted model in the blend.

Central and Eastern Interior: Winds will be the main concern over
the next 24 hours. Strong southerly gap winds will continue in
the Alaska Range tonight. Wind gusts of 60 to 70 mph are expected
near passes, with the strongest winds expected from the Parks
Highway west. Strong Tanana Valley Jet winds will persist tonight
as well, with gusts to 60 mph expected near Delta Junction. The
ongoing Wind advisory for zones 223 and 226 and the High Wind
Warning for zone 225 look to be in good shape. Elsewhere in the
Interior, easterly winds with gusts of 30 to 40 mph are possible,
especially over higher terrain. The gusty winds combined with
recent snowfall will result in blowing snow along the Steese,
Elliott and Dalton Highways north of Fairbanks through tonight The
ongoing Winter Weather Advisories for zones 219, 220 and 221 look
to be in good shape. Winds across the Interior will diminish
Tuesday morning as the strong low in the Bering Sea moves to the
west. Above normal temperatures are expected across the Interior
into Tuesday. Many locations south of Fairbanks are seeing
temperatures above freeing along with the hills north of
Fairbanks. Some spots near passes in the Alaska Range currently
seeing temperatures as high as the upper 40s or lower 50s.
Temperatures are expected to drop back below freezing as winds
diminish Tuesday morning. Little to no precipitation is expected
for the Interior through through Thursday thanks to a high
amplitude ridge aloft that will dominate the weather pattern of
for much of the week.

West Coast and Western Interior: A 951 mb low is currently moving
north out of Bristol Bay will move over Nunivak Island this
evening and will pass just southwest of St. Lawrence Island early
Tuesday morning as a 957 mb low. This low will continue to weaken
as it moves to the northwest on Tuesday and will reach the Gulf of
Anadyr Tuesday evening. This system is currently bringing strong
winds to the west coast as well as snow and freezing rain to areas
south of the Bering Strait. Precipitation will end this evening
for most places along the coast; however, the Yukon Delta will see
another shot of snow early Tuesday morning. St. Lawrence Island
will see precipitation into Tuesday afternoon. Winds will diminish
on Tuesday. Strong winds along the coast continue tonight and
early Tuesday. Winds will diminish Tuesday as the low moves to the
west. Wind gusts of 40 to 60 mph are expected tonight along the
coast, with the strongest winds expected in the Yukon Delta. St.
Lawrence Island will likely see gusts up to 70 mph early Tuesday
as the low passes just to the southwest. As winds become more
southeasterly on Tuesday, we expect to see some minor rises in
water levels for the southern Seward Peninsula coast. A tight
pressure gradient over the western Interior will bring gusts up to
40 mph to the higher terrain through this evening. After this
system moves away, we expect much more quiet weather for the
remainder of the week with little to no precipitation expected.

North Slope and Brooks Range: The pressure gradient will tighten
up this evening as a low on the north side of the Brooks Ranges
strengthens. This will cause gusty easterly winds with gusts of 40
to 60 mph to develop along the coast. The strongest winds are
expected for areas to the east of Deadhorse. The strong winds will
cause blowing snow to develop this evening. No falling snow is
expected along the coast; however, winds this strong have to the
potential to reduce the visibility to one half mile or less at
times along most of the coast. There is the potential for a ground
blizzard to develop along the coast east of Deadhorse. We also
expect southerly gap winds with gusts up to 40 mph to develop near
passes in the Brooks Range. These winds will also cause local
areas of blowing snow near passes. Winds will diminish across most
of the coast on Tuesday morning as well as in the Brooks Range as
a strong ridge of high pressure over the Beaufort Sea pushes to
the east. Gusty east winds will likely persist near Barter Island
for the remainder of the week. A dominant ridge of high pressure
aloft will limit the potential for precipitation this week for
the Arctic Coast and the Brooks Range.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory for AKZ216-AKZ217-AKZ223-AKZ226.

High Wind Warning for AKZ225-AKZ227.

Winter Storm Warning for AKZ213.

Blizzard Warning for AKZ204.

Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ201-AKZ202-AKZ203-AKZ206-AKZ210-
AKZ211-AKZ212-AKZ214-AKZ215-AKZ219-AKZ220-AKZ221.

Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ225-PKZ230.

Gale Warning for PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ240-PKZ245.

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ230.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ215-PKZ235.
&&

DEC 19