Tropical Depression in Maine, September 7, 2019

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
945 AM EDT Sat Sep 7 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Hurricane Dorian tracks to eastern Nova Scotia today, then
to near Newfoundland by Sunday morning. Canadian high pressure
then builds in through Monday night, then slides offshore on
Tuesday. A warm front approaches from the southwest Tuesday
night and Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
9:45AM UPDATE...Forecast remains on track this hour. Moderate to
heavy rain covers southern areas with light to moderate rain
slowly pushing north. Temps are on target. No significant
changes made this hour.

Previous Discussion...
Hurricane Dorian tracks to the southeast and east today as it
undergoes extratropical transition, merging with a northern
stream trough moving across SE Canada.

In collaboration with NHC, have extended the Tropical Storm
Warning into Central washington County mainly due to concerns
near the coast with Passamaquoddy Bay. The remainder of the
headlines associated with Dorian remain unchanged.

Wind gust potential will be greatest along Washington county
coast this aftn where gusts around 50 mph are likely, but the
potential of 40+ mph gust potential will xtnd SW to NE from
coastal Hancock county to central Washington county base on
1000-900 mb mean mixing potential with marginal lapse rates of
around 7 deg C/km. Strong winds in the TS wrng area will last
latest near the NB prov border til erly eve, at which point,
winds will begin to subside over all of the Rgn as Dorian moves
over Ern NS prov.

Expect rain to develop from SE to NW this morning, with the
heavier and more steady rain mainly to the east of Route 11/I-95
in the Bangor Region. Expect the rain to taper off from W to E
late this afternoon/early this evening as Dorian and the upper
level trough axis exit to the E/NE. Rainfall totals should range
from around a tenth to a half of an inch west of Route 11 and
from 1/2 inch to 1 inch across the rest of the North and east of
I-95 in the Penobscot/Bangor region. Across Downeast Maine,
expect totals of 1-3" highest over the SE 1/2 of Washington
County. Could see some ponding of water on roadways and maybe
some localized minor flooding there.

Sunday will feature low clouds lingering N of Katahdin in the
morning, with clearing elsewhere. The North then gets in on the
clearing Sunday afternoon, while southern zones could see some
isolated to scattered showers associated with a passing northern
stream shortwave passing around the base of what will then be
Post tropical Cyclone Dorian. Winds will continue to diminish
through the day on Sunday.

Highs today will be around 15-20 degrees below normal, mainly in
the mid to upper 50s. Lows tonight should be a few to around 5
degrees below normal, mainly from the lower to mid 40s.Highs on
Sunday should be noticeably milder than today, but still around
5-10 degrees below normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
The remnants of Dorian continues to move east into the Canadian
Maritimes. Higher pressure building into Maine will crest over
the region early Tuesday morning. A deepening low in the Upper
Midwest and its associated frontal system will track east across
the Great Lakes. At the end of the period the low will be over
Lake Superior the associated front will be extended across the
Eastern Great Lakes region. The high pressure across Maine will
be ridging east into the North Atlantic.

Loaded a blend of the GFS/NAM/ECMWF/GEM to smooth out the minor
differences in the models.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
An active weather pattern continues through the extended
period, will keep temperatures running 4 to 8 degrees below
normal through most of the period. Overnight lows will recover
to near normal towards the end of the period.

A high pressure will be ridging east at the start of the
period. A low just west of Lake Superior with a frontal system
extending east to the central Great Lakes region will move east
to Western Quebec with the frontal system moving into Western
Maine early Wednesday morning. The low will move east of Maine
Thursday afternoon, the cold front will move into the Gulf of
Maine. Higher pressure will briefly build into Maine, by early
Friday morning the frontal system will be pulled back into SW
Maine as a warm front as a new Low deepens over Lake Superior.
The low will track NE to James Bay, The frontal system moves
into Western Maine early Saturday morning. The low will move NE
into Eastern Quebec, the front will move into the Gulf of Maine
early Sunday morning. Wrap around precipitation will affect
Northern and Eastern Maine through the end of the period.

Loaded a blend of models to smooth out the minor differences.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Conditions deteriorate to MFR north and IFR south
today with rain. Should then see VFR conditions at southern
terminals this evening, with mVFR continuing at northern
terminals through the night. NE winds will gust to between
20-30kts over southern terminals into early afternoon, with
lighter winds elsewhere. LLWS will likely effect terminals
during the afternoon. Wind gusts abate around sunset, with winds
becoming light and variable at southern terminals overnight.

SHORT TERM:
Sunday-Tuesday...VFR. Diminishing winds on Sunday.

Tuesday night-Wednesday...IFR or lower possible in rain. S winds
G15KT possible at southern terminals.

NEAR TERM: Sunday night through Wednesday...High pressure, VFR
conditions through Tuesday evening.

Tuesday night through Wednesday...A low will be crossing the
area, trailed by a cold frontal system. Low MVFR to IFR
conditions.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Not much chgs to winds/wind gusts durg the TS hdln pd
for later tdy into erly eve, with fcst wv hts increased by about
a foot from the prev update. Winds and wvs will then subside
ovrngt tngt thru Sun with an intervening SCA needed mainly for
seas.

SHORT TERM: A small craft advisory maybe required on Wednesday,
otherwise winds and seas below Small Craft Advisory levels
through the period.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
High surf advisory conts tdy into the eve, with the large
stm/swell 15 to 20 sec pd spectral wv group coming in after 18z
and peaking from 21-00z. Guidance has increased for Jonesport
bouy this last forecast cycle, so nothing has changed in the
overall thinking. Have added stronger messaging for coastal wave
run-up splash over and beach erosion in CFW product. The threat
would be much higher but negative storm surge around high tide
Saturday evening for Downeast coast will help lower water levels
by a foot or two. Still looks like a dangerous situation for a
few sneaker waves as Dorian continues to strengthen and increase
in areal size as it moves into the North Atlantic.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...High Surf Advisory until 2 AM EDT Sunday for MEZ029-030.
     Tropical Storm Warning for MEZ017-029-030.
MARINE...Tropical Storm Warning for ANZ050>052.
&&

Near Term...Maloit/VJN
Short Term...Norton
Long Term...Norton
Aviation...Maloit/VJN/Norton
Marine...Maloit/VJN/Norton
Tides/Coastal Flooding...

Hazardous Weather Outlook...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Caribou ME
620 AM EDT Sat Sep 7 2019

MEZ029-030-080945-
Coastal Hancock-Coastal Washington-
620 AM EDT Sat Sep 7 2019

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT...
...HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Coastal DownEast Maine.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Tropical Storm Warning.
   High Surf Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Tropical Storm Warning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

MEZ017-080945-
Central Washington-
620 AM EDT Sat Sep 7 2019

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Interior DownEast Maine.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Tropical Storm Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Tropical Storm Warning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

MEZ001>006-010-011-015-016-031-032-080945-
Northwest Aroostook-Northeast Aroostook-Northern Somerset-
Northern Piscataquis-Northern Penobscot-Southeast Aroostook-
Central Piscataquis-Central Penobscot-Southern Penobscot-
Interior Hancock-Southern Piscataquis-Northern Washington-
620 AM EDT Sat Sep 7 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Central Highlands Maine, Far
Eastern Maine, Far Northern Maine, Interior DownEast Maine, North
Woods Maine and Penobscot Valley Maine.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

ANZ050>052-080945-
Coastal Waters from Eastport, ME to Schoodic Point, ME out 25 NM-
Coastal Waters from Schoodic Point, ME to Stonington, ME out 25 NM-
Intra Coastal Waters from Schoodic Point, ME to Stonington, ME-
620 AM EDT Sat Sep 7 2019

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic Coastal Waters.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Tropical Storm Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Tropical Storm Warning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

VJN