A thunderstorm caused heavy rain and flash flooding in Big Bug Creek.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS FGZ wrote it up.
A thunderstorm caused heavy rain and flash flooding in Big Bug Creek.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Flagstaff, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Sep 7, 9:02 AM MST, 3 hours 28 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 902 AM MST Sat Sep 7 2019 .SYNOPSIS...A weak weather disturbance will produce a good chance of showers and thunderstorms across northern Arizona through this evening. A stronger disturbance on Sunday will bring cooler temperatures and gusty winds but deliver drier air for a downturn in thunderstorms. An even stronger system will approach early next week with cooler temperatures, breezy conditions and a chance of showers and storms each day through Wednesday. && .UPDATE... Satellite imagery shows the monsoon plume axis along a line from Durango Co, Chinle, Black Canyon City. Within the moisture plume are areas of 20kt plus bulk shear aloft. Isolated thunderstorms have already developed along this line this morning, and high res radar forecasts through this evening show fast moving thunderstorms across much of northern Arizona as the plume and shear aloft move very slowly to the east. Storm motion today from SW to NE. Have increased precip chances this morning across southern Yavapai county and this afternoon across the Little Colorado River Valley and Window Rock areas. && .PREV DISCUSSION /317 AM MST/...For today and Sunday...A couple of weather disturbances will move from west to east across Arizona. The first of these systems, currently over southern California, will draw moisture northward and produce some mid-level cooling this afternoon. When combined with daytime heating the result will an increased chance of thunderstorms especially from about Flagstaff eastward, with storm motion toward the northeast around 10 mph. A stronger disturbance will move through on Sunday producing 5-10 degrees of cooling and southwest winds at 15 to 25 mph with a few gusts approaching 40 mph. Much drier air be ushered in with the Sunday system so the threat for storms will largely be confined far eastern Arizona and mainly in the morning hours. Monday through Wednesday...Forecast models continue to show an even stronger trough moving across the western United States drawing moisture back northward across central Arizona. The result will be a chance of showers and thunderstorms at times, most numerous from the Mogollon Rim and White Mountains southward. There will also be a chance for some organized and possibly stronger storms with increased winds aloft. Although the afternoons will be the favored time for storms, with the trough in the region the chance of overnight activity will be present each night, with Monday night showing the best potential to be active according to the latest guidance. It will remain breezy at times with high temperatures dipping to slightly below normal for the first time in several weeks. The trough should be east of the region by Thursday and Friday for a return to drier and warmer conditions. && .AVIATION...For the 18Z package...VFR conditions with SW-W winds around 7-17kts through 02Z. There will be scattered to numerous storms along the Mogollon Rim and over the White Mountains. Storm coverage will be more isolated elsewhere. Look for coverage to begin to decrease between 02 - 04Z. MVFR conditions are possible in areas with TSRA. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER...The highest chances for storms today will be along the Mogollon Rim and near the White Mountains, with lesser chances elsewhere. Sunday will be drier with windy conditions. Near-critical fire weather conditions expected across the Coconino Plateau Sunday. Monday through Wednesday...Expect a chance of afternoon thunderstorm each day mostly along and south of the Mogollon Rim. Afternoon winds Tuesday and Wednesday will be breezy over the higher terrain. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && PUBLIC...DL/JJ AVIATION...NL FIRE WEATHER..NL For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1120 AM MST Sat Sep 7 2019
AZZ008-015-037-038-071845-
Yavapai County Valleys and Basins-Western Mogollon Rim-Yavapai County
Mountains-Oak Creek and Sycamore Canyons-
1120 AM MST Sat Sep 7 2019
...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR YAVAPAI AND COCONINO COUNTIES
UNTIL 1145 AM MST...
At 1118 AM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a line of strong
thunderstorms near Stoneman Lake, or 9 miles east of Sedona, moving
northeast at 15 mph.
Pea size hail and winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with
this storm.
This line of storms will impact travel on I-17 from Stoneman Lake
northward to mile marker 320.
LAT...LON 3474 11164 3470 11173 3486 11164 3486 11155
3479 11160
TIME...MOT...LOC 1818Z 239DEG 12KT 3482 11163
41Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 1152 AM MST Sat Sep 7 2019 AZZ016-071915- Eastern Mogollon Rim- 1152 AM MST Sat Sep 7 2019 ...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NAVAJO COUNTY UNTIL 1215 PM MST... At 1151 AM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 14 miles southwest of Aripine, or 16 miles southeast of Forest Lakes, moving northeast at 10 mph. Half inch hail and winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with this storm. This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of Navajo County, including the following locations... Lewis Canyon Group Campground. LAT...LON 3411 11074 3420 11073 3444 11040 3428 11020 TIME...MOT...LOC 1851Z 220DEG 9KT 3423 11055 41
The Flagstaff radar (KFSX), 97 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 19:28 UTC.
1 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Big Bug Creek in Mayer rose 2.5 feet between 1230 and 130 PM.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Arizona in 2019Every state in 2019This day in weather historyWarnings in Arizona, September 2019
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 857070.