Strong wind gusts developed ahead of a potent cold front this afternoon, leading to minor tree damage near Raccoon in Pike County.
Every event with a place to put it; 1 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS JKL wrote it up.
Strong wind gusts developed ahead of a potent cold front this afternoon, leading to minor tree damage near Raccoon in Pike County.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Jackson, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Oct 31, 11:50 AM EST, 8 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 1250 PM EDT Thu Oct 31 2019 .UPDATE... Issued at 1251 PM EDT THU OCT 31 2019 An active morning and early afternoon thus far. Rain is ongoing across eastern Kentucky, but the bigger concern has been the winds. As the frontal boundary passed across eastern Kentucky, strong winds in the mid and upper levels were able to mix down to the surface, resulting in high wind gusts along the boundary. Highest gusts ranged from between 25 and 35 mph. Behind the front, drier air filtering in will also allow for better mixing of winds down to the surface. This will also couple with increasing pressure gradients to create higher winds throughout the afternoon and evening. Went ahead and adjusted the winds up a bit, especially in the northern CWA closer to the low center, throughout this time period. Even still, still have wind gusts generally between 25 and 35 mph across the CWA. Confidence is still too low on winds rising above this, enough to warrant an actual wind advisory. However, there will likely be impacts from this wind, especially when coupling with the falling temperatures. As such, went ahead and issued an SPS through 4Z for both the heightened winds and also the fast temperature drops in the face of outdoor Halloween activities this evening. In addition, also adjusted the temperatures a bit throughout the day based on the current observations which is showing the cold air quickly entering into the CWA behind the front over the last couple of hours. All updates have been published and sent to NDFD/web. A new forecast package was also sent out to remove any morning wording, update temperatures, and also to increase wind threat into the afternoon/evening. SPC also placed much of West Virginia and western Virginia in a Tornado Watch for low top, high shear storms. In order to match up, Pike County in our CWA was also included. That being said, winds moving through just west of Pike County only registered 40 mph at the mesonet in Knott County. And though the winds along the frontal boundary/line are intensifying somewhat, the likelihood for severe gusts is quite low. However, some "kinks" within the line may lead to some low level rotation and therefor a quick spin-up cannot be ruled out. Thankfully, the front and associated high wind line will be moving east of the county within the next 1 to 2 hours. Will continue to monitor the line closely during this time. Another new forecast package will be sent out to include the tornado watch. UPDATE Issued at 653 AM EDT THU OCT 31 2019 The Kentucky Mesonet obs indicate the front is pressing through western Kentucky this morning. There is precipitation along and even trailing the front and another slug of precipitation is tracking northeast through eastern Kentucky this morning. A wet day is on tap early before the precipitation exits as cold air quickly evades through the afternoon. Overall the grids are on track with only minor edits made in terms of PoPs. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday) Issued at 437 AM EDT THU OCT 31 2019 The morning surface analysis shows a cold front moving west across western Kentucky and surface low forming across the Ohio Valley. This as an upper level low is progressing into the Middle Mississippi River Valley. This feature progress northeast helping push the cold front east across the region today bringing widespread showers and even a few thunderstorms. SPC does have a marginal risk and even a slight for a portion of the area, but overall think the probabilities are low. Given the HREF indicating maybe 500 J/kg of MUCAPE. However, any showers and/or storms could mix down some strong gusty winds given the strengthening low level jet. The models continue to trend faster with this system leaving much of the area dry going into late this afternoon and evening, but this also brings in gusty winds and colder air quicker. That said, the winds will gust to around 25 to 30 mph out of the west or perhaps a little higher to near 35 mph for some locations. Have leaned toward the short term blend for PoPs today, as this seemed like a reasonable compromise of all the guidance. The high temperature will be met sometime early afternoon or even this morning ahead of the boundary, with temperatures dropping into the 40s for many locations through the late afternoon hours. This will set the stage for much colder air to advect across the region ahead of the surface high this evening into tonight. This will lead to a solid freeze for many, as most locations will see clearing skies and slackening winds under nosing surface high pressure. While the far east may struggle to lower in the valleys because of clouds think the ridges will get into the upper 20s. Given this think we are going to see most areas near to below criteria for hard freeze and went ahead and issued a Freeze Warning area wide. High pressure will continue to push east across the area Friday leading to mostly sunny skies, but we will remain diurnally limited, with highs topping out into the upper 40s to around 50s degrees. .LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 455 AM EDT THU OCT 31 2019 The period is expected to begin with a ridge over portions of the eastern Pacific, and a trough extending from central Canada south into the Central Conus. At the surface, high pressure is expected to be centered over the Appalachians to begin the period. Meanwhile, a surface low is expected to be moving across Ontario at that point with a cold front railing south into the western Great and then southwest into the southern Plains. In general, a trough is expected to persist of the weekend and into early next week from central Canada south into the central Conus with ridging persisting over the eastern Pacific with a few shortwaves moving into the northern Rockies and then across the Plains and into the Great Lakes. The initial shortwave trough is expected to move east of the MS River early in the period and into the Great Lakes region and move across the Lower OH Valley on Friday night and Saturday sending a cold front with limited moisture across the OH Valley. The axis of this trough should move east of the area on Saturday evening with mid level height rises to follow into the day on Monday. Below normal temperatures for early November are favored in this pattern. The next mid and upper level trough should near the MS Valley Monday evening and then move across the Great Lakes and Lower OH Valley Tuesday into Tuesday night. Some uncertainty lingers from late Tuesday into the day on Wednesday with the timing and details of this shortwave trough and associated surface system and perhaps another to move through the trough. For Friday night, with ridge of surface high pressure moving east of the region and mostly clear to clear skies and light winds will set the stage for a freeze for any valley locations such as locations in the headwaters of the Big Sandy that may not experience a freeze on Thursday night. The cold front that moves across the area on Saturday afternoon should have enough moisture to produce some low stratus and stratocu, but not much if anything else this far south as it appears doubtful that saturation will extend above -5C. The main affect from this front will be a reinforcing shot of colder air for Saturday afternoon and night. Saturday night and Sunday should also feature a freeze for many locations so after this weekend what growing season that might have been left will conclude. As high pressure moves east Monday and into Tuesday some moderation in temperatures will occur ahead of the next cold front. This system should have enough moisture to lead to some showers, though coverage many only be isolated to scattered. Model blends favored drier weather to end the period, though variability exists. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning) ISSUED AT 700 AM EDT THU OCT 31 2019 Conditions remain varied this morning between IFR to VFR at the sites. The first slug of rain is moving through this morning is association with a embedded upper level shortwave. Additional showers and storms will be possible through the day and this will lead to MVFR to IFR conditions. These showers and storms could bring gusty winds to the region, and even some low level wind shear early before we mix out. Once the front passes expect precipitation to decrease, but west winds will gust through the afternoon to around 25 to 30 knots. Then winds will slacken through the evening and overnight. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 10 AM EDT Friday for KYZ044-050>052- 058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120. && UPDATE...JMW SHORT TERM...DJ LONG TERM...JP AVIATION...DJ
Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson KY 1255 PM EDT Thu Oct 31 2019 KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>119-012000- Fleming-Montgomery-Bath-Rowan-Estill-Powell-Menifee-Rockcastle- Jackson-Pulaski-Laurel-Wayne-McCreary-Whitley-Knox-Bell-Harlan- Elliott-Morgan-Johnson-Wolfe-Magoffin-Floyd-Lee-Breathitt-Knott- Owsley-Perry-Clay-Leslie-Letcher-Martin- Including the cities of Flemingsburg, Camargo, Jeffersonville, Mount Sterling, Owingsville, Morehead, Irvine, Ravenna, Clay City, Stanton, Frenchburg, Brodhead, Mount Vernon, McKee, Annville, Burnside, Somerset, London, Monticello, Stearns, Whitley City, Corbin, Williamsburg, Barbourville, Middlesboro, Pineville, Cumberland, Harlan, Sandy Hook, West Liberty, Paintsville, Campton, Salyersville, Prestonsburg, Wheelwright, Beattyville, Jackson, Hindman, Pippa Passes, Booneville, Hazard, Manchester, Hyden, Jenkins, Whitesburg, and Inez 1255 PM EDT Thu Oct 31 2019 ...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT FRIDAY... This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern Kentucky. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and Tonight. Thunderstorms are possible today. The main threat with any storm would be strong gusty winds. Wind gusts up to 35 mph will accompany heavy rains as a strong frontal system moves through the area today. Make sure lawn displays are anchored down and make preparations for the possibility of wet weather if trick-or-treating. Much colder air will move into the area tonight, with a freeze anticipated in many locations. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday. There is also a good chance of frost and sub-freezing temperatures each night from Friday night through Sunday night. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not anticipated. KYZ120-012000- Pike- Including the cities of Coal Run, Elkhorn City, Pikeville, and South Williamson 1255 PM EDT Thu Oct 31 2019 ...TORNADO WATCH 685 IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING... ...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT FRIDAY... This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern Kentucky. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and Tonight. Thunderstorms are possible this afternoon. The main threat with any storm would be strong gusty winds, though an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out. Wind gusts up to 35 mph will accompany heavy rains as a strong frontal system moves through the area today. Make sure lawn displays are anchored down and make preparations for the possibility of wet weather if trick-or-treating. Much colder air will move into the area tonight, with a freeze anticipated in many locations. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday. There is also a good chance of frost and sub-freezing temperatures each night from Friday night through Sunday night. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation may be needed in far eastern Kentucky this afternoon. JP/GREIF
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service JACKSON KY
920 AM EDT Thu Oct 31 2019
KYZ058-068-069-079-080-083>085-311400-
Jackson-Whitley-McCreary-Wayne-Estill-Rockcastle-Laurel-Pulaski-
920 AM EDT Thu Oct 31 2019
...A LINE OF GUSTY SHOWERS WILL AFFECT EAST CENTRAL
WAYNE...LAUREL... ESTILL...EASTERN PULASKI...JACKSON...NORTHERN
MCCREARY...ROCKCASTLE AND NORTHWESTERN WHITLEY COUNTIES...
At 919 AM EDT, radar indicated gusty showers were located along a
line extending from near Boone to near Marshes Siding. Movement was
northeast at 40 mph.
Winds in excess of 40 mph are possible with these showers.
Locations impacted include...
Somerset, London, Irvine, Mount Vernon, McKee, Boone, Burnside,
Ravenna, Donaro, Bummer, Fariston, Kimbrell, Cumberland Falls S.P.,
Shop Branch, Spiro, Mount Victory, Wiseman Crossing Station, Climax,
Winston and Disputanta.
LAT...LON 3734 8452 3733 8451 3748 8445 3747 8438
3754 8435 3751 8426 3752 8420 3756 8416
3756 8409 3764 8413 3767 8409 3775 8408
3778 8411 3785 8396 3780 8397 3776 8385
3698 8404 3695 8410 3686 8407 3674 8468
TIME...MOT...LOC 1319Z 235DEG 35KT 3756 8436 3677 8454
JMWSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service JACKSON KY
1136 AM EDT Thu Oct 31 2019
KYZ087-088-113-115-117-118-311615-
Perry-Knott-Bell-Harlan-Letcher-Leslie-
1136 AM EDT Thu Oct 31 2019
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT HARLAN...EASTERN BELL...
LETCHER...LESLIE...PERRY AND SOUTHERN KNOTT COUNTIES...
At 1135 AM EDT, an area of strong showers was located over Coldiron,
or 8 miles west of Harlan, moving northeast at 45 mph.
Winds in excess of 40 mph are possible with these showers.
Locations impacted include...
Hazard, Whitesburg, Harlan, Hindman, Hyden, Letcher, Bath,
Cumberland, Loyall, Evarts, Lynch, Pippa Passes, Benham, Vicco,
Wallins Creek, Blackey, Elic, Cody, Big Fork and Emmalena.
LAT...LON 3690 8360 3693 8357 3696 8358 3694 8351
3701 8351 3708 8355 3719 8353 3720 8351
3727 8351 3740 8275 3703 8275 3698 8287
3690 8287 3685 8301 3685 8307 3674 8314
3666 8347 3667 8351 3662 8366
TIME...MOT...LOC 1535Z 238DEG 41KT 3683 8347
GREIFSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service JACKSON KY
1139 AM EDT Thu Oct 31 2019
KYZ104-106-107-109-110-112-113-115-119-120-311630-
Elliott-Breathitt-Perry-Martin-Floyd-Pike-Knott-Johnson-Magoffin-
Morgan-
1139 AM EDT Thu Oct 31 2019
...A SHOWER WILL AFFECT WESTERN MARTIN...EAST CENTRAL MORGAN...
JOHNSON...NORTHEASTERN PERRY...NORTHERN KNOTT...FLOYD...EASTERN
BREATHITT...NORTHWESTERN PIKE...MAGOFFIN AND SOUTHEASTERN ELLIOTT
COUNTIES...
At 1138 AM EDT, a shower was located over Carver, or near
Salyersville, moving northeast at 45 mph.
Winds in excess of 40 mph are possible with this shower.
Locations impacted include...
Hazard, Paintsville, Prestonsburg, Salyersville, Hindman, Inez,
Mason, Estill, Martin, Wayland, Allen, Buck, Oaklawn Estates,
Handshoe, Davella, Emmalena, Glo, Falcon, Bearville and Whitehouse.
This shower may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.
LAT...LON 3815 8291 3812 8289 3805 8295 3804 8299
3800 8302 3796 8300 3800 8296 3800 8293
3788 8262 3789 8260 3792 8260 3795 8258
3796 8253 3794 8249 3743 8263 3724 8330
3819 8300
TIME...MOT...LOC 1538Z 238DEG 41KT 3765 8306
GREIFSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service JACKSON KY
1209 PM EDT Thu Oct 31 2019
KYZ088-110-113-118>120-311715-
Martin-Floyd-Pike-Knott-Harlan-Letcher-
1209 PM EDT Thu Oct 31 2019
...A SHOWER WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN HARLAN...MARTIN...LETCHER...EAST
CENTRAL KNOTT...EASTERN FLOYD AND PIKE COUNTIES...
At 1208 PM EDT, a band of showers was located over Hollybush, or 7
miles east of Hindman, moving northeast at 45 mph.
Winds in excess of 40 mph are possible with these showers.
Locations impacted include...
Pikeville, Whitesburg, Inez, Cumberland, Jenkins, Coal Run Village,
Elkhorn City, Wheelwright, Fleming-Neon, Lynch, Benham, Forest Hills,
Warfield, Meta, Pilgrim, Davella, Premium, Garden Village, Piso and
Sergent.
These showers may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional
information and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.
LAT...LON 3727 8235 3712 8272 3705 8272 3698 8287
3693 8286 3688 8289 3685 8305 3796 8253
3788 8242 3781 8240 3776 8231 3774 8233
3767 8229 3762 8221 3765 8218 3755 8213
3753 8205 3754 8197 3753 8198
TIME...MOT...LOC 1608Z 238DEG 41KT 3736 8286
GREIFSpecial Weather Statement National Weather Service Jackson KY 1214 PM EDT Thu Oct 31 2019 KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-010400- Fleming-Montgomery-Bath-Rowan-Estill-Powell-Menifee-Rockcastle- Jackson-Pulaski-Laurel-Wayne-McCreary-Whitley-Knox-Bell-Harlan- Elliott-Morgan-Johnson-Wolfe-Magoffin-Floyd-Lee-Breathitt-Knott- Owsley-Perry-Clay-Leslie-Letcher-Martin-Pike- Including the cities of Flemingsburg, Camargo, Jeffersonville, Mount Sterling, Owingsville, Morehead, Irvine, Ravenna, Clay City, Stanton, Frenchburg, Brodhead, Mount Vernon, McKee, Annville, Burnside, Somerset, London, Monticello, Stearns, Whitley City, Corbin, Williamsburg, Barbourville, Middlesboro, Pineville, Cumberland, Harlan, Sandy Hook, West Liberty, Paintsville, Campton, Salyersville, Prestonsburg, Wheelwright, Beattyville, Jackson, Hindman, Pippa Passes, Booneville, Hazard, Manchester, Hyden, Jenkins, Whitesburg, Inez, Coal Run, Elkhorn City, Pikeville, and South Williamson 1214 PM EDT Thu Oct 31 2019 ...Windy Conditions and Rapidly Falling Temperatures Heading Into Halloween Evening... After the passage of a potent cold front, winds are expected to increase across eastern Kentucky throughout the afternoon and evening. Winds between 15 and 25 mph with gusts between 25 and 35 mph are expected. A few gusts up to 40 mph may also be possible. Please take caution if traveling, and also make sure to have any outdoor objects or decorations secured during this time. In addition, temperatures will fall quickly throughout the afternoon and evening. This, coupled with the winds, will lead to wind chills falling below freezing in most locations between 6 and 8 PM. If out trick-or-treating, make sure to prepare for winter-like conditions. JMW
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service JACKSON KY
1254 PM EDT Thu Oct 31 2019
KYZ120-311730-
Pike-
1254 PM EDT Thu Oct 31 2019
...A SHOWER WILL AFFECT EASTERN PIKE COUNTY...
At 1253 PM EDT, a shower was located over Mcandrews, or near
Williamson, moving east at 45 mph.
Wind gusts up to 50 mph are possible with this shower.
Locations impacted include...
Elkhorn City, Forest Hills, Huddy, Mcandrews, Turkey Creek, Jamboree,
Belfry, Argo, Hardy, Phyllis, Phelps, Fedscreek, Canada, Toonerville,
Majestic, Coleman, Aflex, Board Tree, Mouthcard and Woodman.
This shower may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.
LAT...LON 3727 8236 3773 8232 3767 8230 3766 8224
3762 8221 3763 8219 3765 8218 3762 8218
3758 8213 3757 8214 3755 8213 3756 8208
3753 8205 3755 8204 3754 8202 3754 8197
3753 8198
TIME...MOT...LOC 1653Z 250DEG 41KT 3758 8227
GREIFThe national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 strong wind. Local standard time, as filed.
A citizen observed large tree branches downed near Raccoon.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Kentucky in 2019Every state in 2019This day in weather historyWarnings in Kentucky, October 2019
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 855498.