A cluster of strong thunderstorms developed across south central and south eastern Kentucky late this afternoon and early evening. One of these storms briefly became severe near Somerset, producing damage to a couple of trees and trampolines.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS JKL wrote it up.
A cluster of strong thunderstorms developed across south central and south eastern Kentucky late this afternoon and early evening. One of these storms briefly became severe near Somerset, producing damage to a couple of trees and trampolines.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Jackson, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 18, 2:10 PM EST, 2 hours 55 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 310 PM EDT Sat May 18 2019 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night) Issued at 310 PM EDT SAT MAY 18 2019 Visible satellite imagery shows a cumulus field across the entire area at mid afternoon. The most enhanced area of cumulus is across the southwest part of the forecast area, which is where multiple runs of the HRRR have consistently developed convection today. Timing for initial development of isolated to scattered showers/storms still looks to be 20-21Z. The isolated/scattered convection should develop northeast, but with loss of daytime heating any showers and thunderstorms will quickly die, and will end shower/storm chances at 00Z. Any lingering cloud from late afternoon convection will dissipate and skies should be mostly clear tonight. Dewpoints are lower than yesterday, and valleys will decouple again tonight, so should see at least a ridge valley temperature split develop, and this has been depicted in the NDFD with valley minimums upper 50s to lower 60s, and thermal ridges more in the mid and upper 60s. River valley fog should also develop again tonight. On Sunday low level wind fields will increase in advance of a cold front that should be approaching western KY by 00Z Monday. 925mb and 850 mb winds around 40 knots are forecast into the western part of the forecast area. Our wind gusts will depend on the amount of mixing, but definitely could see some gusts to 35 mph in the western part of the area. Shower and storms are expected to develop ahead of the cold front approaching KY, but best low level wind fields and upper level support will remain to the west, and especially northwest of our area, in line with SPCs Day 2 Convective outlook. Most likely scenario is for one or two bands of showers and storms to move across eastern KY late Sunday and Sunday night, with the intensity of the convection decreasing as it moves into and across our area. Sunday will feature another day with above normal temperatures and highs mostly in the mid to upper 80s. .LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday) Issued at 310 PM EDT SAT MAY 18 2019 The extended is reminiscent of a summer type pattern. Models appear to be in good agreement with main synoptic features. Aloft, strong ridging will eventually develop over the southeast CONUS resulting in a warming trend through the upcoming week. Any threats of rain will be limited to isolated to widely scattered, mainly afternoon and early evening convection. A lobe of energy associated with a low lifting northward through the Great Plains (and surface warm frontal boundary at the surface) does ride up the western side of the developing ridge Tuesday and Tuesday night. Thereafter ridging dominates the pattern until it is flattened by a northern stream short wave passing through the Great Lakes by the end of the period, Friday night into Saturday. Closer to the surface, Canadian high pressure will nose its way into the Ohio Valley behind an exiting cold front at the start out the extended. But low pressure developing over the Great Plains will pull the aforementioned warm frontal boundary northward through the Commonwealth Wednesday. Temperatures should warm significantly in return southerly flow as H850 temperatures climb to around 17 or 18 C. A surface cold front will attempt to drop southward closer to the Ohio River by late Saturday but will meet fierce resistance from high pressure to the south leaving our area within the warm sector but with heights dropping enough that there could be a bit better chance for some rain. Sensible weather features a few lingering showers across the area to start out the extended portion of the forecast. A cold front will be pushing off to the east. But any lingering shower or thunderstorms activity will be ending through the day as high pressure begins to build into the region. A warm frontal boundary is expected to lift north across the area by Wednesday. At this time it appears strengthening high pressure aloft will likely limit the threat of rain to just isolated activity. Generally dry conditions will prevail thereafter until possibly late Friday, or more likely Saturday as a cold front drops southward towards the Ohio River. Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possibly to wrap up the extended. Daily high temperatures will warm from around 80 at the start of the period, well into the 80s during the latter half of the week. A few locations will even flirt with the 90 degree mark. Overnight lows will respond similarly, going from a pleasantly cool 50s to the mid 60s for the latter portions of the forecast window. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon) ISSUED AT 145 PM EDT SAT MAY 18 2019 VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period as high pressure over the southeastern U.S. continues to control our local weather. With daytime heating a few showers and thunderstorms will be possible after 21Z, mainly in the southwest part of the forecast area. Have included VCTS in the SME TAF for a couple of hours beginning at 22Z. Any showers or storms will dissipate quickly with loss of daytime heating. Some river valley fog is expected again tonight, but the TAF sites should not be affected. As low level winds increase late tonight in the southwest part of the area, LLWS is expected to develop. Daytime mixing on Sunday will result in gusty southwest winds, mainly in the western and northern part of the forecast area, where some gusts of 20 to 25 knots can be expected. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && SHORT TERM...SBH LONG TERM...RAY AVIATION...SBH
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Jackson KY 344 PM EDT Sat May 18 2019 KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-191200- Fleming-Montgomery-Bath-Rowan-Estill-Powell-Menifee-Rockcastle- Jackson-Pulaski-Laurel-Wayne-McCreary-Whitley-Knox-Bell-Harlan- Elliott-Morgan-Johnson-Wolfe-Magoffin-Floyd-Lee-Breathitt-Knott- Owsley-Perry-Clay-Leslie-Letcher-Martin-Pike- Including the cities of Flemingsburg, Camargo, Jeffersonville, Mount Sterling, Owingsville, Morehead, Irvine, Ravenna, Clay City, Stanton, Frenchburg, Brodhead, Mount Vernon, McKee, Annville, Burnside, Somerset, London, Monticello, Stearns, Whitley City, Corbin, Williamsburg, Barbourville, Middlesboro, Pineville, Cumberland, Harlan, Sandy Hook, West Liberty, Paintsville, Campton, Salyersville, Prestonsburg, Wheelwright, Beattyville, Jackson, Hindman, Pippa Passes, Booneville, Hazard, Manchester, Hyden, Jenkins, Whitesburg, Inez, Coal Run, Elkhorn City, Pikeville, and South Williamson 344 PM EDT Sat May 18 2019 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern Kentucky. .DAY ONE...Late this Afternoon and Tonight. A few thunderstorms will be possible through early this evening, mainly along and west of a line from Sandy Hook to Barbourville to Harlan. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday. Thunderstorms are possible from Sunday afternoon through early Monday morning, and then again on Wednesday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not anticipated. SBH/RAY
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service JACKSON KY
543 PM EDT Sat May 18 2019
KYZ068-079-083-182230-
Wayne-Rockcastle-Pulaski-
543 PM EDT Sat May 18 2019
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN WAYNE...PULASKI AND
SOUTHWESTERN ROCKCASTLE COUNTIES...
At 543 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Somerset,
moving northeast at 25 mph.
Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail are possible with this
storm.
Locations impacted include...
Somerset, Mount Vernon, Science Hill, Burnside, Sloans Valley, Gum
Sulphur, Bandy, Bronston, Woodstock, Spiro, Wabp, Hansford, Dabney,
Willailla, Hogue, Grade, Quail, Ruth, Shopville and Quinton.
Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.
LAT...LON 3726 8470 3736 8456 3733 8451 3744 8446
3735 8425 3687 8457 3686 8459 3701 8486
TIME...MOT...LOC 2143Z 209DEG 23KT 3710 8463
GREIFThe Jackson,KY radar (KJKL), 126 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 22:02 UTC.
1 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
The county Emergency Manager reported a couple of damaged trees just southeast of Somerset, one uprooted and another broken midway up its trunk. A couple of trampolines were also blown around on Regal Drive.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Kentucky in 2019Every state in 2019This day in weather historyWarnings in Kentucky, May 2019
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 815885.