Tornado and Heavy Snow in California, May 18 to 19, 2019

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford CA
320 AM PDT Sat May 18 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Unsettled weather continues over the next few days with areas of
rain, snow, and wind across central California. As a result, it
will not feel like the middle of May. A few strong thunderstorms
will also return to the San Joaquin Valley by Sunday afternoon.

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.DISCUSSION...
After a mostly clear night, mid and high level clouds will spread
back across the region today as the next low pressure system and
cold front approach from the northwest. This system is looking
similar in timing and strength to the system that moved through
Thursday. Rain is expected to start over the northern part of the
district by late this afternoon and spread south tonight. Much of
the precipitation will fall tonight and into early Sunday morning.
By Sunday afternoon the precipitation becomes convective as the
atmosphere will be unstable with lifted indices forecasted to be
between -2 and -3.5. Showers will continue Sunday night and into
Monday morning over the south Valley and the mountains as the low
exits the region, then just a few lingering showers over the
Sierra Nevada Monday afternoon. Snowfall amounts from this system
will range from 8 to 12 inches in the Sierra above 6000 feet, with
up to 20 inches above 8000 feet. A winter storm warning has been
issued from 5 pm today through 11 pm Sunday.

We don't get much of a break before the next system arrives on
Tuesday. This system does not appear to have as much moisture with
it as it moves inland over Oregon and Northern California before
dropping south into Central California. However, it will still
bring a chance of showers and afternoon/evening thunderstorms to
area Tuesday. It looks like a trough of low pressure will remain
over the region for the remainder of the week, keeping the weather
unsettled. Showers look like they will mainly be over the Sierra,
however, can not rule out a few showers on the east side of the San
Joaquin Valley at times Wednesday or Thursday and have kept
slight chance POPs for those periods.

Temperature wise, it will be about 15 to 20 degrees cooler than
normal at least through the middle of the week. That will put high
temperatures in the San Joaquin Valley in the mid 60s to lower 70s
through Wednesday. Temperatures are expected to warm gradually for
the end of the week, but will remain below normal for mid to late
May.

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.AVIATION...
VFR conditions can be expected over the central California interior
today. IFR conditions will develop southward over the Sierra by 03z
Sunday and in the Kern county mountains by 06z Sunday with the onset
of precipitation while VFR conditions prevail elsewhere through 12z
Sunday.

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.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
None.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is low.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information
an/or to provide feedback.

&&

.HNX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Winter Storm Warning from 5 PM this afternoon to 11 PM PDT
Sunday CAZ192>195.

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