Flooding and Hail in Kansas, May 18, 2019

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
743 AM CDT Sat May 18 2019

.UPDATE...
Issued at 743 AM CDT Sat May 18 2019

This Morning:
Fine-tuning areal extent of showers & a few thunderstorms for this
morning is what has prompted the update; more specifically to
lower PoPs early this morning plus to remove the "Early This
Morning" descriptor from all affected zones. The update does not
affect the Hazardous Weather Outlook.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 357 AM CDT Sat May 18 2019

The main challenge today is convective trends before noon and
potential affects on later day convection and severe risk along
and south of a slow moving cold front. Numerous showers and
isolated storms continue to develop along the front in central
Kansas during the predawn hours. These have persisted a bit
longer than some of the high resolution short term models. This
boundary looks to slow or stall across central Kansas today as a
surface low develops along it, in advance of the approaching
negative tilted upper trof. This will be one focus for potential
surface based convection. Another will be along the dry-line which
will extend south from the low somewhere from south central
Kansas into northern Oklahoma. Convection is also expected to
develop this morning within a zone of elevated moisture transport
from eastern Oklahoma across southeast Kansas. As forcing for
ascent increases by afternoon, a combination of elevated and
surface based convection is likely across the area. If they become
more numerous, this could lessen the severe risk. That said, it
appears the better potential for severe storms will exist along
and south of the front across portions of southern Kansas. While
hail and wind will be the primary risks, if the migratory low
develops in far southern Kansas, the backed surface flow late this
afternoon could result in a more favorable shear profile for a
brief tornado. Locally heavy rainfall is also possible, perhaps
focused a bit further north within a frontogenetic region across
central Kansas into this evening. Sunday still looks dry and
cooler behind the departing upper trof as a migratory shortwave
ridge moves into the Plains.

A significant excess rainfall event is possible Monday and Monday
night ahead of a strong upper trof approaching from the southwest
CONUS. Strong moisture transport will occur resulting in very
high precipitable water values, approaching two inches. This in
combination with strong lift and modest elevated instability will
make for efficient heavy rain showers and storms which are
expected to become numerous to widespread across the area. If
confidences remains high on timing and area of concern, a flood
watch will likely be issued with later forecasts.

Darmofal

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 357 AM CDT Sat May 18 2019

Upper trof will lift north across the central Plains on Tuesday
with most rainfall exiting the area by the afternoon. However, a
warm and moist southerly flow will quickly redevelop for the
latter half of the week with a periodically disturbed southwest
upper flow regime over Kansas as disturbances emerge from the
reloaded western CONUS upper trof. A southward sagging frontal
boundary will act to focus better convective chances as it lays
out and wavers across the area. So will maintain periodic chances
for showers/storms for much of the outer periods of the forecast.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 705 AM CDT Sat May 18 2019

We're faced with a messy situation this morning. This situation is
being compounded by a cold front that is decelerating as it moves
further into C KS as well as numerous SHRA & SCT embedded TSRA
that continue to slowly weaken as they move across NE & Ern KS.
Both will play roles in in how (+)TSRA would redevelop/evolve this
afternoon & to a lesser extent this evening. Am staying the course
by keeping (+)TSRA in the forecast as the depicted airmass remains
unstable this afternoon. The greatest potential for (+)TSRAGR is
across SC KS where hail may reach ~2 inches in diameter late this
afternoon & evening. No doubt that with +SHRA IFR cigs & vsbys
(perhaps LIFR) are to expected thru Sun morning.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 357 AM CDT Sat May 18 2019

Locally heavy rainfall is possible today through early tonight.
This could result in localized flooding and minor rises on
mainstem rivers and creeks. A more significant and widespread
heavy rainfall event is expected on Monday and Monday night which
could renew flooding on mainstem rivers and creeks and also pose a
flash flood threat in rural and urban areas. If confidence
remains high, a flood watch may be issued with later forecasts.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    78  53  72  52 /  60  60   0   0
Hutchinson      77  52  71  50 /  50  60   0   0
Newton          77  52  69  48 /  60  60  10   0
ElDorado        76  54  71  50 /  70  60  10   0
Winfield-KWLD   78  55  74  53 /  70  60   0   0
Russell         76  48  69  45 /  50  70   0  10
Great Bend      76  49  70  48 /  50  70   0  10
Salina          77  51  70  47 /  70  80  10   0
McPherson       77  51  70  48 /  60  70  10   0
Coffeyville     77  58  75  53 /  80  70  10   0
Chanute         76  57  73  50 /  80  70  10   0
Iola            76  57  72  49 /  80  70  20   0
Parsons-KPPF    76  58  74  52 /  80  70  10   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

UPDATE...EPS
SHORT TERM...KED
LONG TERM...KED
AVIATION...EPS
HYDROLOGY...KED

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wichita KS
450 AM CDT Sat May 18 2019

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-191000-
Russell-Lincoln-Barton-Ellsworth-Saline-Rice-McPherson-Marion-Chase-
Reno-Harvey-Butler-Greenwood-Woodson-Allen-Kingman-Sedgwick-Harper-
Sumner-Cowley-Elk-Wilson-Neosho-Chautauqua-Montgomery-Labette-
450 AM CDT Sat May 18 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Central Kansas,
South Central Kansas and Southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Thunderstorms are likely across the entire area today and early
tonight. Severe storms, capable of quarter size hail and 60 mph
winds will be possible from midday through early this evening,
generally east of a Lincoln to Great Bend line. There is potential
for an elevated severe risk late this afternoon or early evening,
with storms capable of a brief tornado and hail to around two inches
in diameter over southern portions of south central Kansas.

Storms today and early tonight will also be capable of locally heavy
rainfall and minor lowland flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

A more significant risk for widespread heavy rainfall, including
flash flooding, is expected on Monday and Monday night. Severe
storms will also be possible later on Monday, especially across
southern Kansas.

Periodic chances for thunderstorms will continue from Wednesday
afternoon through Friday. Strong to severe storms will be possible
and some residual flooding from previous heavy rainfall is also
quite possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is possible this afternoon and early evening,
most likely across south central Kansas.

&&

For a graphical version of this information, see our webpage at:
http://weather.gov/wichita/hwo/

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
937 AM CDT Sat May 18 2019

KSZ092-181515-
Sumner KS-
937 AM CDT Sat May 18 2019

The National Weather Service in Wichita has issued a

* Significant Weather Advisory for...
  Sumner County in south central Kansas...

* Until 1015 AM CDT.

* At 934 AM CDT...National Weather Service meteorologists were
  tracking a strong thunderstorm near Renfrow, or 6 miles south of
  Caldwell...moving north at 30 mph.

* Hazards...Hail up to the size of dimes...and wind gusts up to 50
  mph will be possible with this storm.

* Locations impacted include...
  Wellington, Caldwell, Oxford, Argonia, South Haven, Geuda Springs,
  Mayfield, Milan, Hunnewell and Perth.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Seek a safe shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3700 9715 3700 9779 3731 9780 3731 9716
TIME...MOT...LOC 1435Z 192DEG 27KT 3695 9760

PEARCE

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1005 AM CDT Sat May 18 2019

KSZ068-069-083-092-093-181530-
Butler KS-Cowley KS-Harvey KS-Sumner KS-Sedgwick KS-
1005 AM CDT Sat May 18 2019

The National Weather Service in Wichita has issued a

* Significant Weather Advisory for...
  Western Butler County in south central Kansas...
  Western Cowley County in south central Kansas...
  Southeastern Harvey County in south central Kansas...
  Sumner County in south central Kansas...
  Sedgwick County in south central Kansas...

* Until 1030 AM CDT.

* At 1003 AM CDT...National Weather Service Doppler radar was
  tracking a line of strong thunderstorms with locally heavy
  rainfall from Wichita to South Haven...moving north at 40 mph.

* Hazards: Wind gusts up to 50 mph and wind driven rain will be
  possible with this storm.

* Locations impacted include...
  Wichita, Derby, El Dorado, Arkansas City, Winfield, Andover,
  Haysville, Augusta, Wellington, Park City, Valley Center, Bel Aire,
  Mulvane, Goddard, Rose Hill, Maize, Clearwater, Halstead, Douglass
  and Sedgwick.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3701 9742 3700 9775 3800 9750 3799 9682
      3700 9700
TIME...MOT...LOC 1504Z 191DEG 53KT 3767 9726

PEARCE

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1008 AM CDT Sat May 18 2019

KSZ072-096-181545-
Neosho KS-Allen KS-
1008 AM CDT Sat May 18 2019

The National Weather Service in Wichita has issued a

* Significant Weather Advisory for...
  Northwestern Neosho County in southeastern Kansas...
  Allen County in southeastern Kansas...

* Until 1045 AM CDT.

* At 1006 AM CDT...National Weather Service meteorologists were
  tracking a strong thunderstorm near Humboldt...moving north at 35
  mph.

* Hazards: Hail up to the size of dimes...and wind gusts up to 50
  mph will be possible with this storm.

* Locations impacted include...
  Chanute, Iola, Humboldt, La Harpe, Gas, Moran, Bassett, Iola
  Airport, Petrolia and Chanute Airport.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3763 9524 3765 9552 3798 9552 3794 9512
TIME...MOT...LOC 1508Z 193DEG 31KT 3774 9538

PEARCE