NWS Jackson, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jan 19, 3:45 PM EST, 2 hours 40 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Jan 19, 3:45 PM EST, 2 hours 40 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
345 PM EST Sat Jan 19 2019
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 345 PM EST SAT JAN 19 2019
19z sfc analysis shows a deep area of low pressure moving through
the Tennessee Valley near the Kentucky border. This is pushing a
tight pressure gradient along with it but still not a lot of
indication that the bulk of winds from this are making it to the
sfc with obs generally from the southeast around 10 mph and gusts
up to 20 mph. Aloft, though, south winds are roaring along at 40
to 50 mph and could be brought down as a few higher wind gusts to
30 mph plus with showers. Moderate and fairly steady rains
continue to spread over eastern Kentucky with amounts well over an
inch in the southwest necessitating some areal flood advisories
that will last into the evening as another half inch or so of rain
can be expected since the southern convection doesn't seemed to
have limited our QPF up here. Meanwhile, temperatures (and
dewpoints) are now up to the middle 40s north to low 50s in the
far southwest. This warmth continues to spread northeast ahead of
the sfc low's center.
The models are now in terrific agreement aloft through the short
term portion of the forecast. They all depict a sharp and nearly
cut off trough carving east through the Tennessee Valley this
evening with plenty of mid level energy and jet dynamics during
its passing. This trough moves east of the state by dawn Sunday
with northwest flow commencing in its wake even as the northern
stream portion of the trough digs into a large cut off low over
the northern Great Lakes by evening pushing heights even lower for
the region. This whole system shifts east into Monday morning
allowing heights to start to rebound for eastern Kentucky and the
main energy stream to move out of the area. Given the good model
agreement have favored a blended solution to start for the grids
with a strong lean on the high resolution mesoscale models for
details tonight into Sunday.
Sensible weather will feature more soaking rains into the evening
with this main batch of rain ahead of the deep sfc low. Flood
advisories will likely be needed into the first part of the
evening for a good portion of the CWA from this, but probably not
enough for any warnings - unless it gets more convective. Windy
conditions will commence this evening switching northwest as the
low passes with some gusts up to 35 to 40 mph possible into the
late evening and early overnight. Coincident with this will be a
switchover to snow from west to east and a quick accumulation
ranging from over two inches in the far northwest - north of I-64
- to a half inch or so in a portion of the far south. This snow
will be blown around by the brisk northwest winds and likely
reduce visibilities adding to the hazards. Rapidly falling temp
after midnight will lead to a strong potential for icy conditions
from the wet roads and flash freezing into dawn Sunday. Snow
showers will taper off to flurries from northwest to southeast
into the afternoon Sunday, though lingering longest in the upslope
regions nearer the Virginia border. Some clearing will be
possible Sunday night combined with CAA dropping temperatures into
the single digits for most places by 12z Monday - though nearer
to 10 degrees in the far south.
Used the CONSShort and ShortBlend guidance to jump start the grids
through the short term with little adjustments to temperatures. As
for PoPs and QPF did favor the higher res CAMs for details into
the night and also allowed for some upslope and elavation based
enhancements for the snow amounts in the southeast terrain.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 315 PM EST SAT JAN 19 2019
The extended forecast will feature periods dramatic change in the
weather for eastern Kentucky. We can expect very cold conditions
across the area on Monday, as a very cold air mass settles over the
region. Highs on that day will likely max out in the 20s for most
locations. Another cold night will be on tap for Monday night, as
the cold ridge only slowly begins to break down and move off to the
east. A dramatic warm up is then forecast for Tuesday, as the winds
shift to the south at 5 to 10 mph across the area. This warm up will
also be reflected in Tuesday nights temperatures, with lows expected
to fall into only the upper 30s and lower 40s. The warmest day in
the extended should be next Wednesday, when highs are expected to
max out in the lower 50s across the area. After that, another period
of cold weather is going to on tap. Another area of low pressure
moving in from the west will also bring another round of
precipitation to eastern Kentucky Tuesday night and Wednesday. The
southerly flow ahead of this system will be the source of the warm
moist air that will be moving into the area. The rain should last
through the end of the day on Wednesday. However, another transition
will be taking place Wednesday night, as colder air begins spilling
into the region behind the passing weather system. The first snow
should begin mixing with and changing over to snow late Wednesday
night. The ECMWF model has backed off a bit on the amount of snow
that will accompany this system, while the GFS has began coming into
agreement with previous runs of the ECMWF that had been giving us
much more snow. That being said, decided to go with the modest
snowfall amounts that the blended model guidance is currently
giving. Some light accumulations will be possible. We can expect
periods of rain and snow Thursday through Friday, as cold air and
weak impulse of energy move into our area around the back side of
the departed area of low pressure.
The colder air that will spill into the area Wednesday night will
trigger another period of colder than normal weather to end the
week. High temperatures on Thursday and Friday will likely only make
into the 30s across the area. Lows Wednesday night and Thursday
night should fall into the 20s, and we may even see another period
will lows in the teens to lower 20s Thursday night into early Friday
morning.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 120 PM EST SAT JAN 19 2019
A strong winter storm system will bring times of low CIGs and VIS
to the TAF sites this afternoon with moderate rain showers. The
tight pressure gradient around the larger storm will also lead to
LLWS through afternoon and into the evening, as a strong low
level jet develops. The LLWS will subside later in the evening,
when we begin seeing some higher gusts mix down at times tonight.
This strong storm system will also usher in a very cold airmass
changing the rain to snow quickly from west to east during the
middle of the night. This results in additional VIS issues with
even some instances of blowing snow given the gusty winds.
Likewise, CIGs will drop with the snow showers. Some improvement
in the CIGs will be possible after sunrise from west to east on
Sunday as well as the VIS going to VFR as the steady snow showers
taper off. East to southeast winds will start to veer and
increase to the south through the afternoon, with the area of low
pressure progressing northeast. Then overnight we will see winds
veer around further to the west and northwest, with gusts of 25 to
35 knots.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory from 1 AM to noon EST Sunday for KYZ052-
060-080-084>086-104-106-108-109-111-112-114-116.
Winter Weather Advisory from 11 PM this evening to noon EST
Sunday for KYZ044-050-051-058-059-068-069-079-083.
Winter Weather Advisory from 3 AM to noon EST Sunday for KYZ087-
088-107-110-113-115-117>120.
&&
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...GREIF
Hazardous weather outlook, Jan 19, 4:00 PM EST, 2 hours 25 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
400 PM EST Sat Jan 19 2019
KYZ052-060-080-084>086-104-106-108-109-111-112-114-116-210000-
Rowan-Menifee-Laurel-McCreary-Whitley-Knox-Elliott-Morgan-Wolfe-
Magoffin-Lee-Breathitt-Owsley-Clay-
Including the cities of Morehead, Frenchburg, London, Stearns,
Whitley City, Corbin, Williamsburg, Barbourville, Sandy Hook,
West Liberty, Campton, Salyersville, Beattyville, Jackson,
Booneville, and Manchester
400 PM EST Sat Jan 19 2019
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO NOON EST
SUNDAY...
This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern Kentucky.
.DAY ONE...This Afternoon through Tonight.
Times of moderate to heavy rain could lead to localized flooding
into this evening. A sharp cold front will then bring frigid
temperatures and some light snow accumulations to the area
tonight. Winds could gust to as high as 40 mph late this evening
and early overnight. From this, blowing snow and reduced
visibilities will be possible overnight along with icy spots on
area roads.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.
A sharp cold front will lead to some additional light snow
accumulations Sunday. This will be followed by a quick burst of
very cold air with wind chills down into the single digits to near
zero Sunday night and Monday morning.
Accumulating snow will also be possible Wednesday night into
Thursday, as another potent area of low pressure moves across the
region.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotters are asked to call in snowfall reports tonight into
Sunday.
KYZ087-088-107-110-113-115-117>120-210000-
Bell-Harlan-Johnson-Floyd-Knott-Perry-Leslie-Letcher-Martin-Pike-
Including the cities of Middlesboro, Pineville, Cumberland,
Harlan, Paintsville, Prestonsburg, Wheelwright, Hindman,
Pippa Passes, Hazard, Hyden, Jenkins, Whitesburg, Inez, Coal Run,
Elkhorn City, Pikeville, and South Williamson
400 PM EST Sat Jan 19 2019
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO NOON EST
SUNDAY...
This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern Kentucky.
.DAY ONE...This Afternoon through Tonight.
Times of moderate to heavy rain could lead to localized flooding
into this evening. A sharp cold front will then bring frigid
temperatures and some light snow accumulations to the area
tonight. Winds could gust to as high as 40 mph late this evening
and early overnight. From this, blowing snow and reduced
visibilities will be possible overnight along with icy spots on
area roads.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.
A sharp cold front will lead to some additional light snow
accumulations Sunday. This will be followed by a quick burst of
very cold air with wind chills down into the single digits to near
zero Sunday night and Monday morning.
Accumulating snow will also be possible Wednesday night into
Thursday, as another potent area of low pressure moves across the
region.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotters are asked to call in snowfall reports tonight into
Sunday.
KYZ044-050-051-058-059-068-069-079-083-210000-
Fleming-Montgomery-Bath-Estill-Powell-Rockcastle-Jackson-Pulaski-
Wayne-
Including the cities of Flemingsburg, Camargo, Jeffersonville,
Mount Sterling, Owingsville, Irvine, Ravenna, Clay City, Stanton,
Brodhead, Mount Vernon, McKee, Annville, Burnside, Somerset,
and Monticello
400 PM EST Sat Jan 19 2019
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO
NOON EST SUNDAY...
This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern Kentucky.
.DAY ONE...This Afternoon through Tonight.
Times of moderate to heavy rain could lead to localized flooding
into this evening. A sharp cold front will then bring frigid
temperatures and some light snow accumulations to the area
tonight. Winds could gust to as high as 40 mph late this evening
and early overnight. From this, blowing snow and reduced
visibilities will be possible overnight along with icy spots on
area roads.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.
A sharp cold front will lead to some additional light snow
accumulations Sunday. This will be followed by a quick burst of
very cold air with wind chills down into the single digits to near
zero Sunday night and Monday morning.
Accumulating snow will also be possible Wednesday night into
Thursday, as another potent area of low pressure moves across the
region.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotters are asked to call in snowfall reports tonight into
Sunday.
GREIF/AR