A strongly forced line of thunderstorms moved across southeastern Kansas and into Missouri and produced multiple wind gust in excess of 60 mph.
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The episode as NWS SGF wrote it up.
A strongly forced line of thunderstorms moved across southeastern Kansas and into Missouri and produced multiple wind gust in excess of 60 mph.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Springfield, MO wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 18, 11:37 AM CST, 38 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 1237 PM CDT Sat May 18 2019 .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) We certainly have a very difficult forecast ahead of us today as moisture and instability continues to increase within the Ozarks airmass. An upper level speed max will approach the region from the west, and force showers and thunderstorms. Given moisture levels that are two standard deviations above normal combined with synoptic large scale lift, I'm expecting rainfall rates to be tremendous in some of these storms today. Any locations that experiences a prolonged period of storms will need to be closely monitored for a flash flood risk. We will not be issuing a flood watch, since trying to pinpoint any areas that will receive excessive rain is proving to be difficult at this time. Therefore we utilized a super blend approach in populating the rainfall forecasts. However, I will say there are multiple models picking up on high rainfall rates, suggesting that localized amounts of over 3 inches will be possible through tonight. There will also be a risk for severe weather, with all modes possible. Utilizing a RAP environment/HRRR convective prog statistical approach in forecasting short term severe weather, we could receive a very busy episode of severe storms this afternoon. The longer the storms arrive, the more unstable we get, which will create a more volatile environment. It's quite possible that a 2nd round of storms develops across the region later tonight that will be associated with the main upper level cold core. As a matter of fact, we think it's highly likely, and a few of these storms could become organized as well. It's possible that we have some lingering rainfall across central Missouri early Sunday morning, however, most of the deep convection will have exited the Ozarks by Sunday morning. Overnight lows tonight will cool into the upper 50s to lower 60s. .LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday) Other than some lingering showers in central Missouri Sunday morning, almost all locations will remain dry on Sunday. A drier continental airmass will spread across the region, bringing more comfortable weather. Highs on Sunday will warm into the 70s. Chilly conditions will follow Sunday night with lows ranging from the upper 40s to lower 50s. Another nice day is expected Monday, however, precipitation chances will increase Monday evening into Monday night as another storm system will be churning out west. It's possible that excessive rain will occur over the Osage Plains of southeast Kansas and west central Missouri, as many models are pinpointing the eastern Plains as an area that could receive five to seven inches of rain. WPC has a day 2 moderate risk area outlined over the eastern Plains. Medium range models sweep the main belt of forcing with this system through the rest of southern Missouri on Tuesday, which could force another episode of severe storms. Models have been persistent with developing a summertime high over the southeast region of the United States, with a left over baroclinic zone shaping up somewhere across the nations midsection. This could keep active weather alive across the Ozarks through the rest of next work week. I'm thinking we will see more changes in the models, so we won't get too confident in any particular solution at this point. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon) Issued at 1229 PM CDT Sat May 18 2019 Line of convection currently approaching the area. Expect MVFR to occasional IFR conditions within the strongest convective cells and VFR conditions outside of the convective areas. Storms along the initial front of the line could be severe with large hail and strong winds possible. Storms are expected to move through the terminal areas by 01z and through the entire area by 03z. However...multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms will be possible into the overnight period until the surface front moves through the area on Sunday morning. With the frontal passage...winds will gradually veer to a westerly direction and conditions will improve to VFR. && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...NONE. KS...NONE. && SHORT TERM...Cramer LONG TERM...Cramer AVIATION...Gaede
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Springfield MO 1255 PM CDT Sat May 18 2019 KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-191800- Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon- St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas- Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton- Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone- Taney-Ozark-Oregon- 1255 PM CDT Sat May 18 2019 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight. Weather hazards expected... Limited tornado risk. Elevated hail risk. Elevated thunderstorm wind damage risk. Limited flooding risk. Significant lightning risk. Limited non thunderstorm wind risk. DISCUSSION... A line of thunderstorms will move through extreme southeast Kansas and the Missouri Ozarks this afternoon into tonight. Many of these storms will become severe, capable of producing large hail and damaging wind gusts. Tornadoes will also be possible with some of the more intense thunderstorms. Along with the risk for severe weather, rainfall rates with these storms will be very high. Therefore, any locations that receive a prolonged period of heavy rain could experience localized flash flooding. Wind gusts to around 30 mph will be possible outside thunderstorm areas through the afternoon. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday. Another round of strong to severe thunderstorms may affect the region on Tuesday. There will also be some potential for flooding,mainly along and west of a line from Joplin to Osceola. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will be needed across the area through the afternoon into early evening. && More detailed information can be accessed at: http://www.weather.gov/sgf/sitrep This product in graphical format...along with other weather... hydrological and climate information...at http://www.weather.gov/sgf Gaede
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1048 AM CDT Sat May 18 2019
KSZ097-101-181630-
Cherokee KS-Crawford KS-
1048 AM CDT Sat May 18 2019
...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN CHEROKEE AND SOUTHWESTERN
CRAWFORD COUNTIES UNTIL 1130 AM CDT...
At 1047 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Chetopa, moving north-northeast at 45 mph.
Penny size hail will be possible with this storm.
Locations impacted include...
Sherman... Mccune...
West Mineral... Hallowell...
Brazilton... Greenbush...
Faulkner...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.
Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.
&&
A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 500 PM CDT for southeastern
Kansas.
LAT...LON 3758 9508 3755 9488 3701 9499 3701 9507
3711 9508 3738 9507 3739 9509
TIME...MOT...LOC 1547Z 190DEG 38KT 3704 9517
TerrySpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1244 PM CDT Sat May 18 2019
KSZ097-181815-
Crawford KS-
1244 PM CDT Sat May 18 2019
...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CRAWFORD COUNTY UNTIL 115 PM
CDT...
At 1243 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Cherokee, or 7 miles south of Girard, moving north at 45 mph.
Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.
Locations impacted include...
Pittsburg... Frontenac...
Girard... Arma...
Cherokee... Franklin...
Arcadia... Beulah...
Croweburg... Greenbush...
Ringo... Lone Oak...
Farlington... Brazilton...
Polk... Englevale...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.
&&
A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 500 PM CDT for southeastern
Kansas.
LAT...LON 3767 9494 3767 9462 3761 9462 3734 9477
3734 9493 3738 9504
TIME...MOT...LOC 1743Z 190DEG 38KT 3740 9485
TerryThe Tulsa radar (KINX), 116 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 18:15 UTC.
4 thunderstorm wind, 1 hail. Local standard time, as filed.
A 60 mph wind gust was reported 4 miles west of Baxter Springs.
Dime to penny size hail was reported.
A tree fell on a power line knocking it down 1 mile east of Riverton.
Multiple power lines were reported down 2 miles SE of Pittsburg.
The Cherokee County Emergency Manager estimated 60 mph wind gusts in Falkner and Melrose.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Kansas in 2019Every state in 2019This day in weather historyWarnings in Kansas, May 2019
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 823150, 823153, 823148, 823149, 823151.