A record or near record breaking low pressure system moved from Colorado into Nebraska in association with a very strong upper level low. The surface pressure gradient and mixing of the boundary layer allowed for very high winds to develop.
Every event with a place to put it; 18 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS DDC wrote it up.
A record or near record breaking low pressure system moved from Colorado into Nebraska in association with a very strong upper level low. The surface pressure gradient and mixing of the boundary layer allowed for very high winds to develop. The lowest surface pressure recorded was in Stanton county at 106 PM on the 13th when the pressure fell to 971.87 mb. At the Dodge City airport the pressure fell to 974.6 mb with the previous record established in February of 1960 when a 974.9 mb pressure was observed. Lower values were noted in the 1800's at Dodge City, but those numbers are suspect.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Dodge City, KS wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Mar 12, 4:55 PM CST, 4 hours 5 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 555 PM CDT Tue Mar 12 2019 ...updated aviation... .SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Wednesday) Issued at 1153 AM CDT Tue Mar 12 2019 Active weather expected to continue through the short term with rain showers and thunderstorms to high winds. For the rest of the afternoon, expect gloomy conditions with cloudy skies and patchy fog ahead of the next round of rain showers and isolated thunderstorms due to the increased instability across the CWA, especially for the southern portions of the area. This should start late afternoon towards sunset upon peak heating of the afternoon but weak enough shear to not warrant any severe weather. Once this next round of precipitation starts, it is expected to push through the mid morning hours on Wednesday with widespread 1 to 2 inches possible with lower amounts for western counties. A flash flood watch will be valid during this time period with already high water levels and saturated grounds due to snowmelt even with this minimal amount of rain totals. Models have been trending back over the past couple of cycles but even an inch could make for some troubles in these areas. Otherwise, once this wave pushes through, behind it will be the start of some strong south to southwest winds by mid day with 50-60 mph gusts expected to warrant a high wind warning to be in effect during this time through Thursday morning. The main trough will push through later Wednesday evening associating with a cold front that will push through with the winds turning out of the northwest and gusting up to 60-65 mph with good cold air advection to help aid the strong pressure gradient allowing for this to the strongest winds into the night time hours. On the backside of this low with the north winds, there is a slight chance for northern counties along the I-70 corridor to get some flurries not accumulating to anything but confidence is very low as the trend is pushing north and northwestward for snow. Nothing significant will come from this, but expect the strong winds to start to taper off my mid to late morning as the aforementioned cold front pushes east and northeast allowing the gradient to slacken as high pressure builds in from the west and northwest out of the Rockies. This winds will diminish to less than 10-15mph after sunset on Thursday. Temperatures wise, this afternoon will see a good warm up into the upper 50s to low 60s with the warm, moist air advection from the south even under the cloud cover and little to no sun showing for most of the CWA. Overnight, there is not much of a cool down for overnight low temperatures being in the 40s and low to mid 50s west to east across the viewing area. Under continued cloud cover and falling precipitation, temperatures will push back into the upper 50s to low 60s across the CWA for Wednesday with good warm air advection pushing up from the south. With the cold front pushing through late Wednesday night, overnight temperatures will be able to drop to near freezing from the low to mid 30s as the colder air advects in from the northwest with wind chills down into the teens and 20s due to the strong gusty northwest winds. All in all, the moral of the short term story will be with some good rainfall for this time of year followed by a period of strong and gusty winds to push into the long term period. Flood watches and high wind warnings are in effect for both of these periods but stay tuned for any updates that may come over the next 24-48 hours. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday) Issued at 141 PM CDT Tue Mar 12 2019 The strong winds and high wind warning from the short term will extend through noon on Thursday with strong gusty northwest winds still expected through this time frame up to 60mph. Winds will start to diminish into the afternoon as the cold front pushes further east and weakens the gradient across the CWA. As high pressure builds in from the west and northwest, winds will dwindle to 10-15 mph at best after sunset due to night time cooling but because of the cloudy conditions, an inversion will not be able to set up near the surface to cap off any breezy winds aloft. After near freezing morning temperatures, afternoon highs will not improve much pushing into the upper 30s to low 40s with the cold air and cloudy conditions. The sky cover will persist through the night and improve throughout the day Friday clearing out during the afternoon hours of peak heating. Lows will be in the 20s for most of the CWA and warm nicely into the 40s finally seeing sun for the first time all week for the entire CWA. Winds will remain light 5-10mph and turn southerly allowing for the warmup as high pressure at the surface engulfs the area under an upper level ridge across the Rockies giving way to northwest dry flow aloft. The dry and warming trend will continue through the weekend under the aforementioned upper level ridge and surface high pressure. Morning lows over the weekend will mainly be in the 20s and afternoon highs in the 50s getting back to average for this time of year in March. Light south winds and mostly clear skies will give St. Patrick's' Day weekend a nice backdrop for any outdoor activities out on the lake or watching a parade. This trend will continue to start the new work week with lows in the 20s and 30s and high in the 50s through mid week with no precipitation expected. This is much needed after the snowmelt and precipitation that will be received over the next couple of days in the short term. With a the drying and warming trend expected for the weekend and into next week, expect an increase in fire danger as relative humidity values decrease and winds pick up towards the middle of the week. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening) Issued at 555 PM CDT Tue Mar 12 2019 A very strong weather system will impact the terminals through the next 24 to 36 hours. This system will bring very strong winds with magnitudes in the 30-40 kt range with gusts to 50-60 kt possible. In addition, widespread precipitation will eventually move across the terminals with an associated reduction in cigs and vis. Conditions will eventually calm down Thursday evening and into Friday as high pressure builds in. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DDC 51 61 33 42 / 100 70 30 10 GCK 46 58 31 40 / 90 60 40 10 EHA 43 58 30 43 / 80 50 20 0 LBL 45 61 32 44 / 90 50 20 10 HYS 52 59 33 38 / 100 90 60 30 P28 55 66 38 45 / 100 80 20 10 && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... High Wind Warning from 1 PM CDT /noon MDT/ Wednesday to 1 PM CDT /noon MDT/ Thursday for KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081- 084>090. Flood Watch through Wednesday evening for KSZ030-031-043>046- 061>066-074>081-084>090. && SHORT TERM...Lowe LONG TERM...Lowe AVIATION...Sugden
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Dodge City KS 453 AM CDT Tue Mar 12 2019 KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-131000- Trego-Ellis-Scott-Lane-Ness-Rush-Hamilton-Kearny-Finney-Hodgeman- Pawnee-Stafford-Stanton-Grant-Haskell-Gray-Ford-Edwards-Kiowa- Pratt-Morton-Stevens-Seward-Meade-Clark-Comanche-Barber- 453 AM CDT Tue Mar 12 2019 /353 AM MDT Tue Mar 12 2019/ This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...south central...southwest and west central Kansas. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Day 1 Discussion ---------------- Showers and thunderstorms will become more numerous across central and southwest Kansas late this afternoon and overnight. Heavy rain is expected which could cause flooding of low lying areas. See the latest Flood Watch for more details. Day 1 Hazards ------------- * Lightning: Limited risk * Non-thunderstorm wind: Limited risk .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday. Days 2-7 Discussion ------------------- Showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain will be moving out of central and southwest Kansas Wednesday morning. Strong winds are expected to develop Wednesday afternoon and continue into Thursday. See the latest High Wind Watch for more details. Days 2-7 Hazards ---------------- * Wednesday - Lightning: Limited risk - Non thunderstorm wind: Extreme risk - Ice accumulation: Limited risk - Snow: Limited risk - Fire weather: Elevated risk * Thursday - Non thunderstorm wind: Significant risk - Snow: Limited risk - Fire weather: Elevated risk * Friday No hazards. * Saturday No hazards. * Sunday No hazards. * Monday No hazards. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter reports for areal flooding may be needed tonight and Wednesday morning. && For more details visit our webpage http://weather.gov/ddc/ehwo
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
856 PM CDT TUE MAR 12 2019
KSZ066-079-081-130245-
Pratt KS-Stafford KS-Edwards KS-
856 PM CDT TUE MAR 12 2019
...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR STAFFORD...EASTERN EDWARDS AND
NORTHWESTERN PRATT COUNTIES UNTIL 945 PM CDT...
At 856 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 4
miles south of Hopewell, moving northeast at 45 mph.
Dime size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.
Locations impacted include...
St. John, Stafford, Hudson, Byers, Hopewell, Zenith and Dillwyn.
LAT...LON 3769 9894 3779 9907 3826 9860 3826 9847
3792 9847
TIME...MOT...LOC 0156Z 223DEG 40KT 3775 9898
45The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
18 high wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Observed at 5 WNW Elkhart.
Observed at 1S Coolidge.
Observed at 9 NW Wilburton.
Observed at 1 ENE Garden City.
Observed at 4 NE Hayne.
Observed at 1 S Coolidge.
Observed at Liberal.
Observed at Medicine Lodge.
Observed at Johnson City.
Observed at the Garden City airport.
Observed at 1 S Coolidge.
Observed at the Garden City airport.
Observed at the Dodge City airport.
Observed at the Garden City airport.
Observed at the Garden City airport at 11:05 AM CDT.
Observed at 12 N Jetmore at 11:50 AM.
Observed at the Hays airport at 12:17 PM CDT.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Kansas in 2019Every state in 2019This day in weather historyWarnings in Kansas, March 2019
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 816493, 816494, 816495, 816496, 816497, 816498, 816499, 816500, 816501, 816502, 816503, 816504, 816505, 816507, 816508, 816509, 816510, 816511.