Slow moving, nocturnal convection resulted in multiple reports of flash-flooding during the early morning hours of July 4th.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS TOP wrote it up.
Slow moving, nocturnal convection resulted in multiple reports of flash-flooding during the early morning hours of July 4th.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Topeka, KS wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 4, 3:00 AM CST, 1 hour 8 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 400 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2019 .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) Issued at 400 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2019 Showers and thunderstorms capable of producing localized heavy rainfall will persist through this morning, with redevelopment possible this afternoon in east-central Kansas and further west in central Kansas later tonight. Showers and thunderstorms developed gradually yesterday evening in central and north-central Kansas as a H950-H850 LLJ strengthened and aided in parcels realizing 500-1000 J/kg of MUCAPE rooted around 800 mb. These cells were also aided by ascent ahead of a weak H500 shortwave trough axis positioned just west of the forecast area as noted in GOES-16 water vapor imagery. Overall weak westerly steering flow and shear profiles resulted in transient updrafts becoming outflow dominant and fostering upscale growth into multi-cell clusters. These slow moving clusters, embedded in a moisture-rich environment, brought localized heavy rainfall for the region with some locations seeing 1 to 3+ inches of rain in only a few hours per MRMS estimates. This convective complex should slowly progress eastward over the course of the morning, gradually weakening as the LLJ wanes and the upper trough shifts eastward. Nevertheless, there exists the opportunity for heavy rainfall and flooding owing to both the slow cell motion, interacting cells, and training convection. The residual convective cloud debris will likely temper highs today as what happened yesterday south of I-70. Have lowered highs into the mid to upper 80s--coolest in the east where the clouds should linger the longest. Attention then turns to the potential for redevelopment in east-central Kansas later this afternoon attendant with the H500 wave. However, even at this close of a time range, there exists modest differences in the placement of this wave between various solutions. Given the slight eastward displacement of the ongoing convection compared to the 00Z initializations, the H500 wave axis may be slightly further east as well. Latest runs of the HRRR are coming into agreement with this philosophy--developing convection primarily east of Topeka. The best chance for any redevelopment in the forecast area will be before 00Z, after which the threat should shift further east ahead of subsidence on the backside of the trough axis. Confidence in the convective threat forecast drops steadily going into the tonight period. From a synoptic/mesoscale standpoint, the threat for storms should increase between 00-06Z in central Kansas, closer to the juxtaposition of a developing H950-H850 LLJ/theta-e corridor and a very weak PV lobe working through the southwesterly flow along the western flank of a weak H500 shortwave ridge axis (upstream of the aforementioned trough axis along the KS/MO border). How this convection evolves is rather uncertain, with widely varying output amongst the convective allowing and parameterizing guidance. There is some general agreement in a MCC developing along the apex of the LLJ and working east/southeast along the H850 MUCAPE/theta-e gradient, but most recent solutions push its arrival towards sunrise on Friday. Did maintain some PoPs after 06Z to account for the uncertainty in this forecast, but if the current trends hold out, much of the area could see a dry night. .LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 400 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2019 Multiple rounds of showers and storms are forecast through much of next week with seasonal summertime temperatures. The overall synoptic pattern will undergo little chance over the next week. A gradual flattening of the stagnant Southeast U.S. ridge axis coupled with a low-amplitude shortwave trough progressing through the northern High Plains should usher a weak surface baroclinic zone southeastward into the forecast area late Friday afternoon/night. This boundary will serve as the best threat for thunderstorms, but warm sector convection--or remnant convection from the previous night--cannot be ruled out during the day on Friday with MLCINH eroding after 18Z Friday in most NAM bufr profiles in NE Kansas. A modest EML, coupled with surface heating, will result in MLCAPE values of 2500-3000 J/kg. However, as with other rounds of storms over the past week, the lack of sufficient deep shear will limit the overall severe threat to heavy rainfall and gusty winds. Looking through the weekend and early next week, the aforementioned surface boundary meanders in southern Kansas with the sloped H850 boundary positioned over the forecast area. Multiple, ill-timed upper level perturbations will bring continual rounds of thunderstorms to the area. The longer range guidance have delayed the breakdown of the ridge axis until late week at the earliest--the lack of continuity degrading confidence in these solutions. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night) Issued at 1138 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2019 Isolated convection beginning to develop and continued moisture advection/convergence over the region should support increasing coverage trends over the next several hours. Again have delayed most likely timing a bit based on trends. There remains to be at least small TS potential into the peak heating hours with convective outflows possibly lingering. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && SHORT TERM...Skow LONG TERM...Skow AVIATION...65
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Topeka KS 404 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2019 KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-050915- Republic-Washington-Marshall-Nemaha-Brown-Cloud-Clay-Riley- Pottawatomie-Jackson-Jefferson-Ottawa-Dickinson-Geary-Morris- Wabaunsee-Shawnee-Douglas-Lyon-Osage-Franklin-Coffey-Anderson- 404 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2019 This hazardous weather outlook is for east central...north central and northeast Kansas. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue this morning and possibly redevelop later this afternoon and overnight. Areas of heavy rainfall and localized flash flooding will be possible from this precipitation along with localized gusty winds. Flooding of the Big Blue River and its tributaries up stream of Tuttle Creek Lake will continue until water levels on the lake come down. Flooding of the Delaware River upstream of Perry Lake will also continue until water levels on the lake come down. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday. Flooding on the Big Blue and Delaware rivers is likely to persist into next week. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight. && More detailed information can be accessed at... http://www.weather.gov/top/sitrep KDS
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
156 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2019
KSZ035-040800-
Dickinson-
156 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2019
...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN DICKINSON COUNTY
UNTIL 300 AM CDT...
At 154 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 3 miles west of Solomon to 6 miles southwest of
Carlton. Movement was northeast at 10 mph.
Penny size hail, winds in excess of 40 mph and heavy rainfall will
be possible with these storms.
Locations impacted include...
Abilene, Solomon and Carlton.
This includes Interstate 70 between mile markers 267 and 276.
LAT...LON 3893 9737 3896 9737 3897 9720 3868 9710
3861 9710 3861 9737 3891 9737 3892 9738
3893 9738
TIME...MOT...LOC 0654Z 245DEG 8KT 3893 9742 3861 9736 3832 9735
GarganThe Topeka radar (KTWX), 37 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 10:10 UTC.
3 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Numerous streets starting to experience flooding in Manhattan.
Roadways were flooded.
Flooding was reported at Highway 4 just west of Highway 15.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Kansas in 2019Every state in 2019This day in weather historyWarnings in Kansas, July 2019
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 845319, 845320, 845321.