Tornado in Wisconsin, July 4, 2019

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
325 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 325 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2019

Current MCS/Low near KSTC will be the focus for the northeast CWA
through the late afternoon, and early evening. The surface boundary
that is associated with the outflow from the MCS across far southern
Minnesota will be the concern for more convection along the Iowa
border from late this afternoon, through the evening.

Current convection east of KSTC that is associated with the
meso low remains favorable for locally very heavy rainfall as it
tracks to the east/northeast across portions of east central
Minnesota, and west central Wisconsin. High PWATs, slow movement
will lead to a broad area of one half to locally two to three
inches of rainfall before sunset along the track of this MCS. A
FFA was considered but timing and longevity of this event looks
too fast to issue one at this time. However, I wouldn't be
surprised to see flood advisories/warnings issued if conditions
warrant.

Along the Iowa border, and across far southern Minnesota, convection
will likely develop during the late afternoon as another MCS moves
eastward across northern Iowa. Both these areas of convection will
depart MPX CWA before midnight, with clearing for the remainder of
the evening elsewhere.

The forecast concerns for late tonight, and into Friday deal with a
complex of storms that is expected to form near the Wyoming/South
Dakota/Nebraska region this evening, and race eastward overnight.
This area will likely begin to affect far southwest Minnesota by
sunrise, and through southern Minnesota during the day Friday. How
far north this activity develops remains questionable due to
somewhere drier air advecting southward overnight. Will continue to
have likely percentages along the Iowa border, and chance percentage
in central Minnesota. I could see even drier conditions in central
Minnesota if this area of convection moves farther southward than
anticipated. By late Friday night, and as the mean short wave that
is across the northern Rockies finally ejects northeast, another
potent area of convection will likely develop in the Dakotas and
move eastward across Minnesota late Friday night. Areal coverage and
speed remain questionable so will continue with a blend of the
models due to high uncertainty. Otherwise, temperatures will be
reflective to early July with highs in the 80s and lows in the 60s
to near 70.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 325 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2019

Weak high pressure will be situated over the Upper Midwest by
Saturday, keeping most of the convection to our south over Iowa
and Illinois but there may be a few storms that still fire here.
The best chance will be across southern Minnesota. Weak instability
and weak shear will make for a minimal severe weather threat.
Sunday looks quite pleasant with mostly sunny skies, light winds,
and highs near 80.

Southerly flow will begin again by Monday, albeit pretty weak.
Moisture will increase across the Plains and western MN, which
could renew storm chances, especially late. Another cold front
will slowly slide across the northern U.S. into midweek, meaning
several chances for storms will return to the forecast during that
time. High pressure should build in Thursday, but southerly flow
and another cold front should bring more thunderstorms Friday into
next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1150 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2019

A residual MCS that moved across South Dakota overnight, was near
KSTC as of 12 noon. This feature will be the focus for the next
few hours of TSRA/SHRA, with locally IFR/MVFR conditions from
KSTC, to just north of KMSP, to KRNH through 21z. Additional
SHRA/TSRA can't be ruled out across southern Minnesota and western
Minnesota this afternoon but the majority of the convection
should have ended through this evening. Only concern is along the
Iowa/Minnesota border where an additional MCS focuses more
SHRA/TSRA near this area. Confidence is low on any MPX TAF site
affected by this feature, but the best area will be south of KMKT
to KEAU. Elsewhere, no additional activity until after 12z Friday.
Winds will be variable with a general northwest flow developing
in the afternoon from northwest to southeast across the region.

KMSP...

Confidence is low on how widespread the activity near KHCD-KSTC
affects the airport between 18-21z. The best areal coverage will
be north of KMSP but can't rule out affect the airport with MVFR
conditions this afternoon. The next chance of convection will
occur after 12z on Friday.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

Sat...VFR. Wind NE 5 kt.
Sun...VFR. Wind SE 5 kt.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...JLT

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
208 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2019

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
051915-
Douglas-Todd-Morrison-Mille Lacs-Kanabec-Stevens-Pope-Stearns-
Benton-Sherburne-Isanti-Chisago-Lac Qui Parle-Swift-Chippewa-
Kandiyohi-Meeker-Wright-Hennepin-Anoka-Ramsey-Washington-
Yellow Medicine-Renville-McLeod-Sibley-Carver-Scott-Dakota-
Redwood-Brown-Nicollet-Le Sueur-Rice-Goodhue-Watonwan-Blue Earth-
Waseca-Steele-Martin-Faribault-Freeborn-Polk-Barron-Rusk-
St. Croix-Pierce-Dunn-Pepin-Eau Claire-
208 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central and
southern Minnesota...and west central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

There is a chance of thunderstorms through tonight. These storms
will produce brief, heavy downpours. The threat for severe weather
is low, but a damaging wind gust or two is possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

Periods of thunderstorms are expected Friday through Wednesday,
though the best chances are currently Friday and again Monday
Tuesday and Tuesday night. The potential for severe weather is
low at this time, but heavy rainfall will be a continued threat.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN spotter activation may be needed through tonight.

Borghoff