Texas, 2019

Rip Current in Texas, July 4, 2019

July 4, 2019 · NWS HGX · 1 event in 1 county or zone

A 22-year-old man drowned after being caught within rip currents off Galveston Island.

Where it happened

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The toll

Deaths
1
Injuries
0
Property damage
None recorded
Crop damage
None recorded
Events
1

Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.

What happened

The episode as NWS HGX wrote it up.

A 22-year-old man drowned after being caught within rip currents off Galveston Island.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Houston/Galveston, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 4, 5:28 PM CST, 4 hours 32 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 4, 5:28 PM CST, 4 hours 32 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
628 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2019

.AVIATION [00Z TAF Issuance]...

Essentially a wind and ceiling forecast ahead, as showers/storms
have not managed to crop up today, and are equally unlikely to
form tomorrow. Mixed signal in the guidance as to whether we'll
see low MVFR/IFR ceilings early in the morning - for the most
part am going with a persistence forecast here. Otherwise, we'll
look for generally onshore flow, decreasing overnight, and
returning to around/just below 10 knots tomorrow.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 301 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2019/...

.DISCUSSION...
Relatively quiet period of weather on tap next several days with
surface high edging into the area from the SE...and resulting
anticyclonic flow and general subsidence at the surface. This
general flow surface flow pattern...with ridging...holds until at
least next Tuesday. Beyond that some possibility rain chances
would increase by Thursday and beyond as disturbances make a run
at Southeast TX from the east...rippling along the southern flank
of the upper ridge. ECMWF and GFS have a surface cyclone as
well...in the northern Gulf of Mexico by day 7...next Thursday...a
result of a frontal development along a back door cold front
dropping down through the Southeastern states. Once it gets over
the Gulf...this model system likely a hybrid perhaps deriving
energy from warm Gulf waters. No real concern about this but
something to watch for next week...perhaps a rain producer for
some portion of the Gulf coast region. 18

.NEAR TERM [Rest of afternoon and evening]...
Clouds are mixing out and and most areas will remain dry this
evening. PW values remain between 1.70-1.80 inches and daytime
heating could still trigger a late afternoon shower or thunderstorm.
43

.SHORT TERM [Later Tonight Through Friday]...
PW values are progged to lower to around 1.50 inches later tonight.
Fcst soundings and cross sections show skies clearing over most of
the CWA with the best potential for clouds near the coast through
06z. Weather should not be a limiting factor for viewing fireworks
tonight. Later tonight, clouds will begin to develop. The added
insulation from the clouds should keep morning temperatures a bit
warmer than last night. On Friday, mixing should allow clouds to
erode by late morning and skies should become mostly sunny by
afternoon. 850 mb temperatures will warm and taking these values
down dry adiabatically will support high temperatures in the mid
90's. Although sfc dew points also mix out a bit, maximum heat index
values on Friday will approach 105 degrees. The usual summer heat
safety tips apply like wear loose fitting clothing, find some shade
and drink plenty of water. Lower PW values and subsidence from an
expanding 594 dm upper ridge over the Gulf should limit rain chances
on Friday.
43

.LONG TERM [Friday Night Through Wednesday]...
Friday Night through Tuesday...Surface flow generally
anticyclonic with surface high edging in from the SE. At 500 mb
also under influence of high heights and anticyclonic flow.
General subsidence and corresponding inversion associated with
this pattern. Cant rule out an isolated shower or storm with
afternoon heating but most areas should remain dry through this
period.

Wednesday and Thursday...Dry pattern begins to break down with
upper level high retrograding off to the NW and cyclone at surface
and aloft approaches from the east steered by flow on SE flank of
the upper high. As mentioned in the discussion overview both
operational ECMWF and GFS show this feature moving toward the
west. Not out of the question this could be a hybrid system should
it play out as advertised with the cyclone originally forming
along a back door cold front...moves out over the warm Gulf
waters. Still a long way out to see how it plays out...but
something to watch in the days ahead. 18

.MARINE...
Surface high pressure over the western Gulf of Mexico will keep
winds light through the weekend. A diurnal pattern of slightly
stronger winds at night and lighter during the day should become
established late in the weekend and continue into mid week.
Elevated tide levels are expected to diminish as onshore winds
diminish.

Guidance still pointing to a good deal of convective development
taking place in the NE Gulf Monday through Friday with an upper
level low/shear axis. Just something to be aware of as it may
retrograde back under the upper ridge to the west late in the week.
43

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL)  75  95  73  95  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)          77  95  74  94  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)        81  90  80  89  80 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

NEAR TERM...43
SHORT TERM...43
LONG TERM...18
AVIATION...Luchs
MARINE...43

The radar

The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.

Open the radar archive at this moment

Event by event

1 rip current. Local standard time, as filed.

Rip Current, Galveston Island and Bolivar Peninsula

When
July 4, 10:00 PM CST
Where
Galveston Island and Bolivar Peninsula forecast zone
Deaths
1 direct, 0 indirect
Reported by
Lifeguard
Coordinates
29.298, -94.811 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

A 22 -year-old male swimmer drowned after being caught within rip currents near the 29th Street Jetty.

The people who died

As the offices recorded each death: direct deaths were caused by the weather itself, indirect ones by something it set in motion.

EventDateAgeSexWhereKind
Rip Current, Galveston Island and Bolivar Peninsula2019-07-0422MaleIn WaterDirect

What these are

Rip Current
A narrow, fast current flowing away from the beach that caused a drowning or rescue.

After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.

The same day elsewhere

More

Every storm in Texas in 2019Every state in 2019This day in weather historyWarnings in Texas, July 2019

Sources

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 823729.