A bout of freezing drizzle early on February 6th preceded a period of heavier freezing rain and sleet accompanied by thunderstorms on the night of the 6th and early morning hours of the 7th. Air temperatures ranged from 20 to 26 degrees in most spots.
Every event with a place to put it; 3 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS TOP wrote it up.
A bout of freezing drizzle early on February 6th preceded a period of heavier freezing rain and sleet accompanied by thunderstorms on the night of the 6th and early morning hours of the 7th. Air temperatures ranged from 20 to 26 degrees in most spots. By 7am on the 7th some parts of east central Kansas received up to around one quarter inch of ice along with up to one inch of sleet.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Topeka, KS wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 6, 5:54 PM CST, 2 hours 6 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 554 PM CST Wed Feb 6 2019 ...Update to aviation forecast discussion... .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday) Issued at 350 PM CST Wed Feb 6 2019 The main concern for tonight through Thursday morning will be the wintry mix of precipitation across the entire outlook area, with significant ice accumulation possible in some locations. Frigid conditions will remain in place tonight through Thursday as the surface ridge stays south and east of the outlook area. As a result, persistent northerly winds will allow for low temperatures tonight to plunge into the teens and even single digits (across north central KS). The southerly winds on the south side of the surface ridge were helping to support continued moisture advection into the area today, and anticipate additional enhancements as a mid- level trough axis finally tracks eastward over the area overnight into Thursday. Despite the very cold temperatures in place tonight, model soundings still show shallow enough moisture with little to no saturation into the dendritic growth zone to result in a wintry mix of precipitation types tonight into Thursday. As the mid-level trough axis approaches the region, the combination of enhanced moisture advection and enhanced lift into the area will result in the best chances for wintry precipitation and snow/ice accumulations by mid/late evening through the overnight hours. As surface temperatures plunge into the single digits and teens overnight with surface high pressure diving southward into western KS, it will get to the point that temperatures become so cold that precipitation will transition over to sleet and then snow despite little to no saturation into the dendritic growth zone. Locations generally along and south of I-70 will likely see precipitation stay predominantly in the form of freezing rain/drizzle this evening before starting to see sleet mix in overnight and eventually sleet and snow by Thursday morning. As a result, it's within the region with the longest period of freezing rain potential where significant ice accumulations will be possible. The main concern for significant ice accumulations looks to be across far east central KS where 0.25" up to 0.4" of ice accumulation is possible through Thursday morning. For locations generally north of I-70, the transition to a freezing drizzle/sleet/snow mix will occur this evening through the overnight hours, with all snow expected by Thursday morning. Because of this wintry mix, ice accumulations will range from a light glaze across far north central Kansas to upwards of 0.2" closer to I-70, with light snow accumulations of up to 1" possible. While areas of light snow will diminish from west to east across the outlook area Thursday morning, northerly winds will be increasing overnight into Thursday with gusts of 25-35 mph. As a result, some areas of blowing snow will be possible, especially across north central KS. Surface high pressure will continue to slide southward across the area on Thursday, with northerly winds supporting more CAA through the day. These northerly winds combined with cloud cover not scattering out until late morning through the afternoon will result in high temperatures only topping out in the teens. .LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday) Issued at 350 PM CST Wed Feb 6 2019 Surface high pressure will be centered over the outlook area Thursday night into Friday morning, resulting in mostly clear skies supporting decent radiational cooling through the overnight hours. As a result, frigid conditions are expected Thursday night as low temperatures plunge into the single digits and possibly even negative single digits along the KS/NE border. These temperatures combined with light northwesterly winds will cause wind chill values to drop into the -7 to -15 degree range. Dry conditions are expected through Saturday as the region remains under the influence of surface high pressure. As this surface high gradually shifts east of the area, expect a moderating trend with temperatures into the weekend with highs in the 20s on Friday and then jumping into the mid 30s to low 40s by Saturday. Models show a mid-level trough developing over the western U.S. by Saturday with a couple of embedded disturbances developing over the central U.S. Saturday night into Sunday within the southwesterly flow aloft ahead of this trough. There is still model variability with the coverage of precipitation chances from these disturbances, as the GFS shows precip chances across much of the CWA while the ECMWF/Canadian show precip mostly over far eastern Kansas and into Missouri. With Saturday low temperatures into the 20s and Sunday highs into the 30s/40s, a rain/snow mix would be possible with any light precipitation that develops. Model uncertainty starts increasing for the early half of next week as models start varying significantly with when this mid-level trough tracks eastward into the central U.S. and how strong that trough will be with it's eastward progression. The ECMWF/Canadian are much more progressive with this trough (with the ECMWF showing a deeper trough than the Canadian) with the GFS, in comparison, being far slower with its progression into the central U.S. As a result, confidence is low with precipitation chances for next week, but, if anything, there will be the potential for some precipitation as additional disturbances look to develop ahead of this trough. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening) Issued at 526 PM CST Wed Feb 6 2019 For the 00Z TAF forecast, have maintained at least IFR/LIFR CIG/VIS restrictions for KTOP/KFOE respectively with good confidence. Expectation for tonight will be that -FZDZ develops over the terminals and have maintained the onset time to be around 03Z and then transitioning to -SN during the 09-12Z time frame. CIG/VIS should improve with time but expect only gradual improvements with the upper system slow to lift out of the area. Therefore, maintained low level stratus for much of the period. Strong gusty northwesterly winds increase into the early morning hours as cold air funnels into the area through the day && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST Thursday for KSZ008>012- 020>024-026-034>039-054. Ice Storm Warning until noon CST Thursday for KSZ040-055-056-058- 059. && SHORT TERM...Hennecke LONG TERM...Hennecke AVIATION...Drake
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Topeka KS 251 PM CST Wed Feb 6 2019 KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>039-054-072100- Republic-Washington-Marshall-Nemaha-Brown-Cloud-Clay-Riley- Pottawatomie-Jackson-Jefferson-Ottawa-Dickinson-Geary-Morris- Wabaunsee-Shawnee-Lyon- 251 PM CST Wed Feb 6 2019 This hazardous weather outlook is for east central...north central and northeast Kansas. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon and tonight. A winter weather advisory for freezing drizzle, sleet, and snow is in effect for the area through tonight. Please see the advisory for details of this threat. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday. Snow and strong winds will linger through the morning on Thursday. Combined with the icy roads, travel may be difficult through the morning hours. Much colder temperatures are forecast for Thursday and Friday. Wind chill values could fall as low as 15 below across parts of northeast Kansas by Friday morning. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight. && More detailed information can be accessed at... http://www.weather.gov/top/sitrep KSZ040-055-056-058-059-072100- Douglas-Osage-Franklin-Coffey-Anderson- 251 PM CST Wed Feb 6 2019 This hazardous weather outlook is for east central...north central and northeast Kansas. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon and tonight. An ice storm warning is in effect for the area through tonight. Please see the warning for more information on this threat. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday. Snow and strong winds will linger through the morning on Thursday. Combined with the icy roads, travel may be difficult through the morning hours. Much colder temperatures are forecast for Thursday and Friday. Wind chill values could fall as low as 15 below across parts of northeast Kansas by Friday morning. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight. && More detailed information can be accessed at... http://www.weather.gov/top/sitrep
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
3 winter storm. Local standard time, as filed.
EM estimated flat ice accumulation at least one quarter inch along with sleet that created a sheet of ice that was 1 to 2 inches thick in spots. No damage or wide spread power outages were reported.
EM estimated flat ice accumulation around one quarter inch along with sleet accumulation around one inch. No damage or wide spread power outages were reported.
EM estimated flat ice accumulation around one quarter inch along with sleet accumulation around one inch. No damage or wide spread power outages were reported.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Kansas in 2019Every state in 2019This day in weather historyWarnings in Kansas, February 2019
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 795761, 795762, 795763.