Blizzard in Kansas, February 23, 2019

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
547 AM CST Sat Feb 23 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Today through tonight)
Issued at 307 AM CST Sat Feb 23 2019

Water vapor imagery shows potent shortwave lifting over far
eastern NM with a surface low quickly deepening over extreme
northeast NM.

Saturated low levels with strong isentropic lift right off of the
surface, has resulted in widespread drizzle and fog. Areas
generally along and west of Highway 14 have seen widespread dense
fog overnight and this should continue into the early morning
hours. Main precip type should remain drizzle this morning until
the upper wave starts to directly affect western portions of
forecast area after 13z.

Did add a couple more counties to the blizzard warning and also
added a couple more to the winter weather advisory. This was
initially based on trends from the RAP which were later confirmed
by the 00z ECMWF. This also goes along with the further south
solution being preferred through this event. Even though snow
amounts in the advisory area(including Wichita) are generally
less than a inch, feel even a couple hours of snow, combined with
strong winds, will produce sudden reductions in visibility.

Still looking like the bulk of our snow will fall in the 18z-00z
time frame, when the TROWAL/deformation zone lifts across.
Would not be surprised to see some thunder wrapping into the
TROWAL given the amount of instability above 750mb. Should easily
see snowfall rates in excess of 1" per hour in the heavier band.
Still going with the thinking that the heaviest snow should fall
along and northwest of a Great Bend to Salina line with I-70
obviously being severely impacted. The only limiting factor to
higher snowfall amounts will be the rapid movement of this system
as it wastes no time lifting into northern MO by early this
evening. Still looking at wind speeds sustained around 35 mph over
central KS with gusts easily over 40 mph which will produce
periods of whiteout conditions in the heavier snow bands.

On the warm side of this system, strong southwest winds will
elevate the grassland fire danger over southeast KS and also feel
confident that we will see wind advisory conditions southeast of
the KS Turnpike after 18z. Even after the band of snow lifts out,
gusty nw winds should continue into the early evening, especially
for eastern KS.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 307 AM CST Sat Feb 23 2019

Dropped highs Sun a few degrees over central KS where we expect
the more widespread snow cover. Meanwhile, over far southern KS,
temps Sun should be fairly close to normal. Next round of snow
looks to stay well north of KS for Sun night into Mon. Meanwhile,
strong zonal flow will remain over most of the CONUS with a series
of impulses tracking over the northern Rockies/northern Plains.
Remains some agreement between the ECMWF and GFS in pushing
through a fairly strong cold front Wed. While there could be some
light precip associated with the front, not expecting any
significant winter precip. While confidence is high that below
normal temps will remain through the end of the work week, GFS and
ECMWF disagree on the strength of a cold front for Fri.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 536 AM CST Sat Feb 23 2019

LIFR and IFR conditions are expected to reign over the region most
of the day today. Rain, drizzle and fog will be the main problems
for ICT and CNU through most of the day. The precipitation at ICT
is likely to end with some light snow or flurries. HUT will likely
switch over to snow during the mid day period but accumulations
are expected to be light. SLN, GBD and RSL are expected to have
the most significant impacts from this incoming storm. Low
visibilities with snow and blowing snow can be expected during the
afternoon period. This snow and rain along with the IFR
conditions are expected to end with rapid clearing expected during
the evening hours. By the late night tonight, all terminals are
expected to be VFR. However, there will be a strong northwest low
level jet over the region. This will create some LLWS conditions
over parts of Central Kansas. This will mainly effect the RSL, GBD
and SLN terminals during the overnight period tonight.

Metzger

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 307 AM CST Sat Feb 23 2019

Main fire weather concern will be southeast Kansas this afternoon.

Potent low pressure system will lift across KS today. Strong
southwest and west winds will overspread southeast KS this
afternoon with speeds around 30 mph common with gusts to 40 mph.
These high winds will combine with RH's in the 40-45% range to
elevate the grassland fire danger into the very high category.
Once we get past today, fire weather concerns look minimal.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    47  26  45  23 /  50  10   0   0
Hutchinson      40  23  39  20 /  80  20   0   0
Newton          43  26  41  20 /  70  20   0   0
ElDorado        49  27  45  21 /  50  10   0   0
Winfield-KWLD   56  26  48  25 /  50   0   0   0
Russell         33  19  29  14 / 100  20   0   0
Great Bend      34  20  32  18 / 100  10   0   0
Salina          37  22  31  15 / 100  40   0   0
McPherson       39  23  35  17 /  90  20   0   0
Coffeyville     63  30  50  24 /  50   0   0   0
Chanute         58  29  47  21 /  50  10   0   0
Iola            56  28  45  19 /  50  10   0   0
Parsons-KPPF    62  29  48  22 /  50  10   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to midnight CST tonight
for KSZ053-069>072-091>096-098>100.

Winter Weather Advisory from 9 AM this morning to midnight CST
tonight for KSZ052-068-082-083.

Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for KSZ032-033-
047-048-050-067-082-091.

Blizzard Warning from 9 AM this morning to midnight CST tonight
for KSZ032-033-047>051-067.

&&

SHORT TERM...RBL
LONG TERM...RBL
AVIATION...ELM
FIRE WEATHER...RBL

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wichita KS
845 AM CST Sat Feb 23 2019

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-241445-
Russell-Lincoln-Barton-Ellsworth-Saline-Rice-McPherson-Marion-Chase-
Reno-Harvey-Butler-Greenwood-Woodson-Allen-Kingman-Sedgwick-Harper-
Sumner-Cowley-Elk-Wilson-Neosho-Chautauqua-Montgomery-Labette-
845 AM CST Sat Feb 23 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Central Kansas,
South Central Kansas and Southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Gusty winds of 35 to 45 mph are expected to combine with moderate
to heavy snow to produce blizzard conditions over much of central
Kansas today. Further south, winds will still be strong, but
snowfall will be less. While roadways may not be snow covered or
slick, sudden reductions in visibility will still be possible. See
latest blizzard warnings and winter weather advisory for additional
details.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

Light wintry precipitation is expected Tuesday night through
Wednesday night for mainly eastern Kansas. Significant snow or ice
accumulation is not expected.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated today or tonight.

&&

For a graphical version of this information, see our webpage at:
http://weather.gov/wichita/hwo/